Karnataka Election Prediction-M.Shenoy
Manoj Kumar D Shenoy
Won the CrowdWisdom360 Karnataka Election Prediction Competition in 2018. He has been living in Bangalore, Karnataka for the past 15 years working as Consulting Solutions Director at Oracle Financial Services Software Limited, Bangalore. He is originally from Payyannur, Kerala and a B. Tech Electrical & Electronics from University of Calicut in 1996-97. He was the most accurate in our Karnataka Election Prediction Contest and won Rs 25000 in prize money. A true CrowdWisdom winner. A short interview
1. Why did you participate in the contest originally and why do you continue to participate in the contest?
I have been following almost all elections since 1987 and have always done some sort of analysis at individual seat levels, patterns and the changes, before the elections as well as after the elections. Indian Politics has always been my favorite discussion topic amongst my family and friends. One of my friend sounded me about Crowdwisdom site sometime in March/April this year and told me to participate as he has always seen some merit in my analysis.
As I mentioned earlier since Politics is my favorite subject, it makes sense for me to continue participate in the contests of Crowd wisdom as I see this forum as a great enabler for people like me.
Like every predictor, I don’t always get it right since my indicators are on past data and the perceived momentum that I see on TV, Facebook and Twitter.
2. What was your thinking behind the Karnataka Election Prediction which finally proved to be the most accurate?
From a bird’s eye view or from someone from Delhi, Karnataka election will always be a triangular contest with JDS as a third player or a spoiler or a king maker as they say. But Karnataka is hardly a triangular contest across the state.
2013 KARNATAKA ELECTION
I have taken 2013 results as the base which BJP contested in the worst possible situation when BSY was not in the party.
If a party secures 25% of votes in a constituency then that party has chance of victory even in a bipolar contest 5 years later.
In 2013 JDS got more than 25% votes in just 85 out of 224 and most of them are in their stronghold districts of Mandya, Hassan, Mysore, Bangalore Rural, Kolar, Chikkaballapura.
In 2013 Cong got more than 25% votes in 176 votes and its spread across Karnataka
BJP+KJP, in 2013, got more than 25% votes in 161 states and its spread across the state except old Mysore region.
If BJP+KJP were together in 2013 they would have around 75 seats which would have been at the cost of Congress.
Karnataka Election Prediction 2018
Fast forward to 2018
- Congress is facing Anti-incumbency
- BSY is back in BJP
- Modi and Amit Shah are at helm of affairs
BJP was bound to do well. But Old Mysore region which accounts for 60+ seats is still very weak for BJP and contest there is between Cong and JDS.
So effectively BJP is contesting in 155-165 seats and bulk of them are straight contest against Congress and based on the voting pattern of Karnataka election, BJP would be winning around 95 seats here and around 10 seats from the rest of 60-70 seats.
The Old Mysore region JDS had always done well and since Congress is in power, JDS was bound to win major chunk of the seats which they did winning
Remaining seats went to Congress.
2018 State Elections Predictions
2. Without sharing numbers. Share your thinking behind who will win each of the assembly elections and why?
In 2013 BJP got 46% votes and 165 seats. Congress got 37% and 58 seats. 4 months later during the LS BJP’s vote share increased to 55% and Congress vote share came down to 35%. Since BJP is facing a 3 terms fatigue, there is a possibility of a chunk of swing voters moving away from BJP this time, but may not be enough to defeat BJP. BJP seats will come down from 163, but it will still be a comfortable victory for BJP.
State has the history of 25 years of voting out the incumbent. But this will change this time. BJP will retain just like the way BJP had retained Gujarat in late 2017. BJP had got a whopping 56% votes in 2014 LS elections and Congress was at 31%. Last time BJP lost the assembly elections in 2008, it still won 34% votes with 78 seats and Congress won nearly 37% with 96 seats and that time Modi and Amit Shah were not in picture. If I remember right even in 2008, it was painted that Vasundhara Raje is hugely unpopular, but still BJP could win 78 seats and Congress could not get majority on its own. BJP may not be able to repeat 163 of 2013, but could scrape through with a narrow margin.
Most likely it will be a hung verdict with TRS as the single largest party. TRS does not have a huge vote share in Telangana, it is around 35%. Last time TRS has won because of multi polar contests. This time with Congress having an alliance with TDP and a few others it will be a close contest. I also believe BJP will make some progress in some areas of Telangana. It will be a hung verdict with TRS falling short by 5-10 seats.
State assembly elections have always been a close contest, though BJP is on the winning side on all 3 occasions. But this time it may give throw a different result because of triangular contests in 1/3rd of the 90 seats. Ajit Jogi- BSP alliance is going to hurt Congress more than BJP. The Alliance will take away a portion of Congress votes and gain anti-incumbency votes as well. BJP will win bulk of those seats. In the end BJP will have one of the most comfortable victory.
State will throw a split verdict with MNF just edging past Congress, but falling short of majority. BJP most likely will form an alliance with MNF.
In our prediction market, BJP winning 15-17 seats in Karnataka sees a downward trend of 2.70%