Google Trends: Worry for BJP in the Assembly Elections but not in Lok Sabha

Google Trends has by and large accurately predicted who is likely to end with the most seats in an election (2015 and 2017 assembly elections) – as long as the parties are serious competitors. In Karnataka it failed to predict who will win the most vote share. In the forthcoming election, it needs to be seen if the larger trend remains.  With this cautionary advice, let us look at how BJP is trending across all States.

First, let us look at States that are NOT going to an election. within that, we will compare BJP’s performance versus Congress and 3rd, we will compare two equivalent time periods (October 16-Nov 13, 2013 versus October 16-Nov 13, 2016)

 

1. Assam

2013

BJP – 32

Congress – 22

2018

BJP – 60

Congress – 42

BJP maintains steady advantage over Congress in Assam

 

2. Delhi

2013

BJP – 28

Congress – 16

2018

BJP – 57

Congress – 33

BJP maintains steady advantage over Congress in Delhi

 

3. Gujarat

2013

BJP – 51

Congress – 22

2018

BJP – 49

Congress – 32

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has fallen but BJP still has a big lead over Congress

 

4. Haryana

2013

BJP – 40

Congress – 22

2018

BJP – 46

Congress – 31

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has fallen but BJP still has a lead over Congress

 

5. Jharkhand

2013

BJP – 22

Congress – 15

2018

BJP – 42

Congress – 21

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has increased

 

6. Karnataka

2013

BJP – 62

Congress – 31

2018

BJP – 21

Congress – 8

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has increased but the overall intensity is down

 

7. Kerala

2013

BJP – 39

Congress – 36

2018

BJP – 69

Congress – 31

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has substantially increased 

 

8. Maharashtra

2013

BJP – 36

Congress – 18

2018

BJP – 60

Congress – 32

The Gap betweeb BJP and Congresss has remained Steady and in favour of BJP

 

9. Odisha

2013

BJP – 25

Congress – 19

2018

BJP – 49

Congress – 25

Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress

 

10. Uttar Pradesh

2013

BJP – 56

Congress – 32

2018

BJP – 63

Congress – 25

Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress

 

11. West Bengal

2013

BJP – 38

Congress – 25

2018

BJP – 68

Congress – 26

Substantial increase in gap between BJP and Congress

 

Overall Summary of the above 11 States – no major negatives for BJP. Positives in Bengal, Kerala, Odisha, Jharkhand, Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka. This is broadly in line with the various opinion polls. Let us now analyse tothe 3 election bound states

 

Chhattisgarh

2013

BJP – 19

Congress – 6

2018

BJP – 20

Congress – 19

Substantial drop in gap between BJP and Congress. BJP still has a slim advantage though. 

 

Madhya Pradesh

2013

BJP – 30

Congress – 19

2018

BJP – 21

Congress – 23

Congress is ahead of BJP. Note that is the first of the States where Congress has reversed the lead.

 

Rajasthan

2013

BJP – 13

Congress – 6

2018

BJP – 11

Congress – 14

Congress is ahead of BJP. Note that is the second of the States where Congress has reversed the lead.

 

So Congress is ahead in two States and BJP in one.  Google Trends is not God but this is an indicator of what BJP is up against in these two States. It remains to be seen if these leads hold until election day. In Chhattisgarh for example, Congress had a reasonable lead until the 10th and then it reversed. But Congress is much stronger in both Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh. Therefore, it needs to be seen if BJP can reverse the trend and win the election

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