The Fast Changing dynamics in Madhya Pradesh election
Madhya Pradesh like many other States tends to give high vote share to non-mainstream parties (like BSP). Let us look at how ‘others’ have trended over the last 3 elections and compare it with the CrowdWisdom prediction this time
The lowest for others was 17% in 2013. CrowdWisdom’s latest prediction shows a further dip to 16% this year. However, our data is collected over the last 3 months.
Vote shares on our platform change slowly, so what we have done is to consider another metric – Share of Supporters in the prediction sample. This shows the enthusiasm of supporters. This worked very well in Karnataka. Modi spent 10 days in Karnataka and that completely sustained a move from late 90s to 105. So supporter share is critical. We look at what is the change in mix of predictors by party support in Madhya Pradesh. We consider two periods, Nov 1st to 11th and Nov 12th to 21st
Over the last 20 days, share of both BJP and Congress predictors amongst our participants has fallen. BJP by 4% points and Congress by 2%. As a consequence, the gap between BJP and Congress is down a bit but the biggest gainer are ‘others’
The ata might mean that voters are perhaps looking at other party’s candidates also given the confusion about BJP and Congress. But there is more nuance to this.
However, when one looks at the most recent data, 16th to 21st, BJP’s Share is down to 49%, Congress is slightly up to 35%, Other is steady to 16%.
So overall, ‘Others’ have gained in the last 15 days and sustaining thereafer. BJP in the first 11 days had a lead of 22% over Congress, that is down to a massive 14% in the last 6 days. One needs to see if this will sustain until the election day. If it does, it is curtains for the BJP.