Chhattisgarh Exit Polls Analysis
The Chhattisgarh Exit polls sound very confusing,so we use back of envelope methods to determine who is likely to be most accurate on Tuesday.
The CrowdWisdom Criteria
In Gujarat election where BJP was the incumbent (Incumbent bias), this is what happened
– BJP supporters overprojected their performance by 26%
– Congress supporters were accurate in predicting the performance of BJP
What are those numbers in Chhattisgarh?
– BJP Supporters prediction for BJP in Chhattisgarh = 47, 26% over prediction = 38
– Congress Supporters Prediction for BJP in Chhattisgarh = 37
There are 2 Pollsters close to these numbers.
C-Voter and Today’s Chanakya
Big 4 Consensus
3 of the Big-4 agree that BJP will go under 40. These are also the top-3 ranked pollsters.
The range varies from 26-39 seats
What about Jan Ki Baat?
The question is what about Jan Ki Baat? They have a pretty good track record in recent times. In fact, the gap between Crowdwisdom and Jan Ki Baat is very low (CW-42 vs JKB 40 and same 40 for Congress), so if Jan Ki Baat is right, CrowdWisdom’s predictors together will have got this very close. So yes, we root for Jan Ki Baat!
Jan Ki Baat got Karnataka right along with CNX. The average for BJP was 102 in Karnataka and JKB went with 105 (3% higher). In Chhattisgarh, the average is 41 while JKB is 7% higher at 44. So we refer to another election, Gujarat (23% error). JKB Posted 123 versus an average of 116 (6% higher than mean).
Applying 23% error to 44 comes to 36 close to the number quoted by Today’s Chanakya
Can CNX get it right?
In theory, nothing stops CNX from getting it right this one time irrespective of how they performed in the past. Stil, let us look at their record
Gujarat – 135-139 ( Actual 99)
Karnataka – 106 (Actual 104)
Bihar – 135 (Actual 178)
CNX got Karnataka right but so did a couple of other polls. The Good news for CNX in Chhattisgarh is that there are two other polls close to it, JKB and Neta App. Therefore, can they get it right? Yes.
Unlike Madhya Pradesh, there are two groups of numbers feasible for BJP – 43-46 and 36-39 (may be lower).
That leaves with a space between 39 and 43 which is the most likely for BJP. With others at about 6, Congress is likely to end with 41 to 45. This is looking like Ajit Jogi’s dream come true after the analysis of Chhattisgarh exit polls.