Update: Jagan Reddy Likely to win about 87 seats in 2019 Elections in AP
December Update of the 2019 Elections in AP
After hundreds of predictions received, it is clear at this point in time that Jagan is likely to form the Government after the 2019 Elections in AP. Looking at the data below, it appears Jagan will end up winning about 87 seats in 2019 with TDP likely to end up with 84 Seats. If we correct for what we call incumbency bias, Jagan could go upto 95 and TRS to about 78 Seats. But it is not game over yet with TDP countering with the Congress alliance on one hand and Jana Sena losing steam giving YSRCP bulk of the anti-incumbency vote. One is still unclear how BJP will play out given their likely improved performance in Telangana. One should not ignore this Googly.
The Predictions for the 2019 Elections in AP
Nearly 56% think the party will win more than 65 seats with nearly 37% claiming more than 80 Seats.
In case of TDP, the situation is a little different.
Only 48% think TDP will win more than 65 seats with 29% claiming TDP will win more than 80 Seats.
In case of Jana Sena, majority of people think the party will end up with below 14 Seats and within that majority believe the party will win less than 4 seats.
Historically our predictors have overstated the performance of the ruling party by atleast 10% so one can say from past experience that TDP is likely to perform worse than what our predictions are suggesting. One must see how things play out after the Telangana Election and with TDP announcing and alliance with Congress
The Challenge for Chandrababu
The Problem for TDP is not performance. On almost all metrics it has done well and has been in the top-5 in the Country. The problem is related to uneven performance. In 3 districts, the economic performance, the edge over YSRCP and the presence of Jana Sena could lead to significant losses for the TDP. These districts are
Including seats from these 3 districts, there are 39 seats where a swing of 3% towards YSRCP will move ALL those seats go to Jagan. The situation is indeed precarious for the TDP. With Jana Sena also losing momentum, it is unlikely that the anti-incumbency vote will change by much in the next 5 months.
In case of TDP, one way out is clever seat management and a major policy announcement. That can provide some seat protection and perhaps sway one voting segment away from Jagan.
Our data suggests that the 2019 elections in AP will be fought over 4 segments –
– 18-29 year olds
CBN is hoping to replace BJP+anti-incumbency vote with muslim vote, some christians and some dalits through his alliance with Congress party. YSRCP had won a fair bit of that vote in 2014. YSRCP will defend its share amongst Muslims while trying to consolidate SC votes even further in its favour. It is amongst youth that the TDP will lose significant vote and unless they come up with a gamechanger policy, this group could hurt the TDP significantly. Jagan is wooing this group away from Jana Sena. The TDP is trying to stem the rot by touting the new employment opportunities in Southern Andhra Pradesh and Visakhapatnam.
The Risks for YSRCP
In case of YSRCP, the biggest risk is complacency and over confidence. This was clear in 2014. The TDP-Congress alliance is cleraly designed to hurt Jagan when it comes to muslims, christians and dalits and in some regions (like North Coastal) where Jagan had performed well in 2014. Jagan understands this and has been more mindful but that also means he will need to focus on more districts during election time
It is clear that the 2019 elections in AP will be the most intriguing election in 2019. . Two generations of politicians plus a movie star will surely make the election extremely exciting for all of us. At the moment it is clear that the wind is in favour of a change in Government. The question is can Jagan sustain his momentum till election day or will CBN mount another of his many comebacks?