Analysis: Congress likely to win 83 to 99 seats as of today
We have already seen how BJP looks reasonably comfortable to form the Government again. However, the contest is still quite close and BJP can still be beaten. Please click below to read about how crowdwisdom operates.
CrowdWisdom360 uses multiple inputs to determine the overall estimate.
Our Overall Prediction Platform gives us an estimate of 99. This method collects data at national level only and does not ask for State level estimates
Let us look at Opinion Polls. If one looks at the average of Opinion Polls, it comes to about 91, see chart below
CrowdWisdom also collects predictions at the State level. If one looks at our bottoms up approach, click here to explore Congress state level estimates , the estimates are as follows
5. Madhya Pradesh
The above adds to 66 Seats.
That leaves us with UP, Bihar, Delhi, J&K, Uttarakhand, HP, Andhra/Telangana, North East, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Bengal and Union Territories. Congress won about 15 Seats in these States. It is likely to slightly exceed the performance this time with losses in Bengal and Telangana while gaining in TN, J&K, Bihar and may be even UP. With 20 additional seats, the tally works out to about 86 seats. We will be launching these predictions soon.
Another way to look at this data is to look at vote share data. The Congress appears to be gaining 3-4% overall. (Below is for urban only
If one applies a swing of 3% towards Congress, one could see congress winning about 83 seats (if applied on 2014 data), at 4% swing it goes up to 94 seats
So considering all the above we have a simple range of 83 to 99 seats for the Congress party
In order for Congress to have any chance to form the next Government, it will need to target a swing of 6% which will take it to about 125 seats minimum. It can do this by breaching BJP’s hold amongst lower middle class voters (both urban and rural). While MSP, Minimum income may help gain some of these voters, lower middle class labour which makes up for 20% of the voters may not benefit. Unless Congress addresses all 3 segments, a 6% swing will be a difficult one. It is still advantage BJP until the day the Congress announces its offer for all voters. After that, time will tell…