Analysis: Congress likely to win 83 to 99 seats as of today

Analysis: Congress likely to win 83 to 99 seats as of today

We have already seen how BJP looks reasonably comfortable to form the Government again.  However, the contest is still quite close and BJP can still be beaten. Please click below to read about how crowdwisdom operates.

This is in India’s most read start up magazine YourStory

CrowdWisdom360 uses multiple inputs to determine the overall estimate.

 

Our Overall Prediction Platform gives us an estimate of 99. This method collects data at national level only and does not ask for State level estimates

 

Let us look at Opinion Polls. If one looks at the average of Opinion Polls, it comes to about 91, see chart below

 

CrowdWisdom also collects predictions at the State level. If one looks at our bottoms up approach, click here to explore Congress state level estimates , the estimates are as follows

1. Kerala

47% of the participants think Congress will win 9 or more seats

2. Punjab

54% believe that the Congress will win 8 or more seats in Punjab

3. Maharashtra

58% believe that the Congress-NCP will win 12 or more seats in Maharashtra. Congress share would perhaps be around 6

4. Karnataka

66% believe that the Congress will win 8 or more seats in Karnataka

5. Madhya Pradesh

61% believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in Madhya Pradesh

6. Gujarat

51% believe that the Congress will win 4 or more seats in Gujarat

7. Rajasthan

55% believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in Rajasthan

8. Chhattisgarh

52% believe the Congress will win 7 or more seats in Chhattisgarh

9. Haryana

67% believe that the Congress will win 2 or more seats in Haryana

10. Assam

57% believe Congress will win 4 or more seats in Assam

 

The above adds to 66 Seats.

That leaves us with UP, Bihar, Delhi, J&K, Uttarakhand, HP, Andhra/Telangana, North East, Odisha, Tamil Nadu, Bengal and Union Territories. Congress won about 15 Seats in these States. It is likely to slightly exceed the performance this time with losses in Bengal and Telangana while gaining in TN, J&K, Bihar and may be even UP. With 20 additional seats, the tally works out to about 86 seats. We will be launching these predictions soon.

Another way to look at this data is to look at vote share data. The Congress appears to be gaining 3-4% overall. (Below is for urban only

 

If one applies a swing of 3% towards Congress, one could see congress winning about 83 seats (if applied on 2014 data), at 4% swing it goes up to 94 seats

So considering all the above we have a simple range of 83 to 99 seats for the Congress party

In order for Congress to have any chance to form the next Government, it will need to target a swing of 6% which will take it to about 125 seats minimum. It can do this by breaching BJP’s hold amongst lower middle class voters (both urban and rural). While MSP, Minimum income may help gain some of these voters, lower middle class labour which makes up for 20% of the voters may not benefit. Unless Congress addresses all 3 segments, a 6% swing will be a difficult one. It is still advantage BJP until the day the Congress announces its offer for all voters. After that, time will tell…

CrowdWisdom360

CrowdWisdom360 Admin

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