Aeon-CrowdWisdom Urban Poll: BJP slides downwards after Pulwama peak
Aeon CrowdWisdom360 Lok Sabha election 2019 Daily Tracking Urban Opinion poll
The survey covers nearly 2000 respondents on a weekly basis, rolled over daily. The error is 3%, confidence at 99%. It covers 19 cities across all regions in India. While it is an urban survey, it gives us a sense of how the mood of the voters is impacted by various actions of political parties
Key Take aways from the chart above
– BJP has started trending downwards after peaking due to Pulwama. National security is a big issue for BJP voters but is unlikely to attract new voters for the BJP
– BJP is significantly higher than what it was on Budget day 2019 as it took back votes from regional parties on economic issues. It needs to be seen if this will sustain once opposition announces its plans
What do women want?
While local Security is such a huge issue for women. It is not even in the top 5 list of Men. Security issues also create fewer employment opportunities for Urban women leading to higher unemployment and lower labour force participation.
The other really interesting finding is how inflation is such a big thing for men but is ranked only 4th for women. In the past, inflation has always been a big issue as women tended to manage the hosuehold budgets. It is really unusual to see more men to be complaining about this than women. But there are really good reasons for this
– Men are the Chief wage earners in most households and wage growth has been ordinary for most households. In many cases even lower than inflation.,
– While Food inflation has fallen, core inflation has actually soared recently. Many of the core inflation items are consumed or paid for by the chief wage earner. Also, middle class women too consider inflation to be a big issue. This is probably due to the basket of goods being skewed towards non-food items
On Local security, Upper Middle Class and Poor Women are more likely to consider it an important criterion. This is probably due to the fact the labour force participation is much higher amongst these households
On Jobs, Middle Class women are more likely to complain about finding jobs/ right jobs as compared to poor women. It is likely that poor women are taking up jobs even in adversarial conditions given the financial pressures of low incomes. Upper Income women while worried about security still take up jobs because transportation for them is more secure (in cars) as opposed to non-car owning households
On inflation, it is a huge issue amongst middle class women. Given the limited jobs for lower middle class women and a high aspiration at one end and the soaring core inflation on the other end, this has become a big issue for middle class women.
The different priorities amongst women and men and data from recent elections clearly suggest that women will vote as per their priorities and not what they are told. It does not mean that the family is not important, it just means that family priorities are not just the male priorities but a combination of the two.