Dr. Sachin Reddy Predicts Phase 2 of the Karnataka Election
Dr. Sachin Reddy was one of the most accurate predictors of the 2018 Karnataka Assembly Election. His knowledge of each Assembly constitutency is quite remarkable.
I’ll be talking in detail about the Phase 2 of Karnataka, the crucial 14 seats! BJP held 11 of these 14 in 2014 and had lost 1 more( Bellary) in bypolls last year
2nd phase of LS polls in 14 seats of Karnataka happens to be in the traditional strongholds of BJP It is interesting that, despite having virtually no chances to pulloff a victory in at least 8 of the 14 seats, Alliance parties and the entire state govt are campaigning with zeal
This phase consists of 6 seats of Mumbai K’taka(5 BJP 1 Cong), 5 seats of Hyderabad K’taka(2 BJP 3 Cong), Shimoga(BJP), Davangere(BJP) and North Canara(BJP) Across this belt barring N Canara, Lingayats form the biggest voting block. 8 of the 10 Unreserved PCs have Lingayat MPs!
Apart from Lingayats, STs are the most influential block in H’bad KA & Davangere while SCs(LH>Banjara>RH>Bhovi) across the entire belt Brahmins are the most influential block in N Canara & sizeable in Shimoga, Dharwad Marathas have clout in Belgaum, Chikodi, Bidar & N Canara
Kurubas have sizeable presence across the belt, especially in Koppal, Haveri, Dharwad & Bagalkot Besides these, there are sporadic but sizeable chunks of Eediga(Shimoga, Canara, Gulbarga), Koli(Gulbarga, Raichur), Reddy(Bellary), Nekar(Belgaum, Bagalkot) and Yadava(Bijapur)
Broadly, a big chunk of Lingayats(70-30), Brahmins(90-10), Marathas(70-30), ST(60-40), Banjara(70-30) and other OBCs(60-40) have consolidated behind BJP in the seats of this phase Cong-JDS depend mostly on Muslim, Kuruba and Right Hand SCs to stay afloat in this region
Of the 10 BJP seats in this phase, Bidar is the most vulnerable seat Cong candt Eshwar Khandre was one of the Cong ministers who strongly opposed the Lingayat religion movement! Combined with a lacklustre incumbent MP & poor VS performance, Bidar is leaning to Cong as of now
In Gulbarga, INC floor leader in LS, Mallikarjun Kharge who has remained undefeated in his 5 decades of political life is staring at a very tough contest! BJP has fielded heavy weight exMLA Dr Umesh Jadhav who has run a strong campaign and has toured the entire PC 3 times!
The singular focus of BJP on Gulbarga probably emanates from the top most leadership of the party Cong veterans like Baburao Chinchansur, Malikayya Guttedar, AB Malakareddi have defected to BJP and have complementing the traditional BJP base in Gulbarga to challenge Kharge!
Kharge, who barely scraped through in 2014 against a BJP candt that he bought out, now faces an uphil task to defend his seat! He faces the formidable Lingayat-Banjara-Brahmin-Eediga-Koli coalition(~60% votes) which has organically taken shape on ground over the past few months!
In Raichur, Cong incumbent MP BV Naik won with just 1499 (0.15%) votes against his nephew Shivangouda Naik faces ex Minister Raja Amaresh Naik As of now, this is a pan evenly poised contest but high Lingayat turnout can turn the tide in favour of BJP here (Click here to predict Raichur Seat)
Koppal has turned into Lingayat(BJP) vs Kuruba(Cong) contest While Kurubas+Muslims form nearly 3.5L voters, Lingayats alone account for nearly 5L voters in Koppal! Big chunk of STs(~1.5L) have consolidated behind BJP Overall, this seat is slightly vulnerable(still lean BJP) (Click here to predict Koppal seat)
Bellary is an interesting contest this time Neither the gunnybags of cash that came from Kanakapura nor the cohesive group of 6 Congress MLAs that worked in favour of Ugrappa in bypoll exist in 2019! While 1 Cong MLA is in jail, 2 of them have completely withdrawn from ground!
The 100 Crores that made a difference in bypoll are almost nonexistent this time Also, sadly for the accidental MP Ugrappa, the BJP candidate is good with even the old Congress heads and also capable of expending significant amount of ‘resources’ This contest is evenly poised!
Cong MP Prakash Hukkeri won Chikodi PC in 2014 with just 3003 votes. He faces formidable Annasaheb Jolle who unsuccessfully challenged his son in his pocket borough of Chikkodi in 2018 This contest will go down to the wire but BJP has the edge! (Click here to predict Chikkodi)
In Chikodi, Lakshman Savadi & Jolle family duo have the backing of Ramesh Jarakiholi camp of Congress which have influential members in 6 of the 8 ACs under Chikodi Hukkeri’s archrival, Kagawad Cong MLA Srikanth Patil is also Linley to hurt Cong chances in Chikodi
The contests is nominal in Belagavi(strong BJP consolidation) Bagalkot(weak Con candt) Bijapur, N Canara(JDS walkover) Haveri(popular MP & strong Modi wave) Dharwad(strong Modi wave, unpopular Cong candt) Shimoga(despite all the alliance bravado) Davangere(dummy Con candt) (Click here to Predict Davangere)
This is how Phase 2 in Karnataka is poised in a table! If everything works in BJP’s favour, 14-0 is not impossible. OTOH, if everything works against them(slim to no chance), they can end up with 8 of the 14 seats Most likely outcome however though is BJP 11-12 Con+ 2-3.
Overall, at this point in the election cycle, Karnataka seems poised for a saffron sweep Most likely outcome is BJP 19-21 UPA 7-9