No Smooth Sailing for Mahagatbandhan in Uttar Pradesh
By Nitesh Singh, A BJP Well Wisher
Uttar Pradesh, the state that sends highest number of MP’s to Lok Sabha, has always been a crucial state for every political party in order to rest its supremacy over the throne of Delhi. From political point of view, it is often believed that road to Delhi passes through UP and why not, the state sends 80 MP’s which is enough to influence the formation of new government at the centre.
In 2014, BJP along with its allies won 73 out of 80 MP’s, however the scenario has completely changed for 2019. The two political parties, Samajwadi Party and BSP along with RLD have come together to form an alliance so that they can defeat their one common enemy, BJP, in coming Lok Sabha. Will BJP be able to drill through the wall of this alliance or Mahagathbandhan in UP or will the Mahagathbandhan register a complete sweep in upcomimg Lok Sabha election?
My take on UP Mahagathbandhan and their impact
The Mahagathbandhan which was supposed to be formed by uniting all the opposition parties is now a mere alliance between three political parties, SP-BSP-RLD, therefore Mahagathbandhan is now merely a Gathbandhan between these parties. The alliance looks solid on paper, however if we closely monitor we can find many issues. The alliance became reality because of its impressive performance in bye elections of Gorakhpur, Phulpur and Kairana but we ignore the fact that voting percent in bye elections was very low as compared to 2014 Lok Sabha election and added to it many BJP voters stayed away from voting thinking BJP will win with ease. The biggest challenge for alliance will be the transfer of votes, which does not looks as smooth as some media projects. There is confusion among people regarding the Gathbandhan
– RLD can influence only a few seats in Western UP
– Shivpal Yadav’s presence will harm SP, they may lose certain percentage of both Yadav and Muslim votes. If Congress join hands with Shivpal Yadav, they can swing some serious percentage of votes from SP-BSP alliance
– Congress still has got presence in some seats, but they may prove only to be vote cutters. Congress fighting alone may split Muslim-Yadav votes too.That’s what BJP also wants
– Non Jadav- Dalit votes may not shift in high number towards SP-BSP.
– The alliance is concentrated in the 45% Yadav-Dalit-Muslim vote, it cannot touch the 55% OBC and OC vote of the BJP now that BJP stunned everyone by hurling the 10% reservation for the poor in General category.
The game has just begun, the 2019 Lok Sabha election is wide open. Uttar Pradesh is going to be the main centre of political turbulence