Not Exit Poll of 2019 Election, Google Method
While an Exit Poll of 2019 Election is banned until the last phase of voting, we use publicly available data on Google Trends to decipher the trends. This has served well in most elections but it is not a method that has been fully perfected or understood. Please do not use this data to make any claims in media. It is to be used only for debate amongst your friends and family.
The above chart is clear, Left is likely to be decimated in Bengal. While we have struggled to simulate the exact vote share implications, simple simulations suggest a tie in vote share between BJP and Trinamool. This is likely to deliver a minimum of 15 seats for the BJP. With more phases to come, it needs to be seen if BJP can sustain this momentum. The other Googly is that Left+Congress are likely to end up between 20 to 25% of vote together disrupting both the BJP and TMC. Seat Share predictions will be extremely difficult even during the Exit Poll Stage. However, future phases may change everything.
BJP is performing better than the 2017 election but worse than the Lok Sabha election. That implies a very small vote share loss versus 2014. However, the opposition is together this time and are also likely to perform better than 2014. BJP is likely to see huge losses here. But the Exit Poll of 2019 Election is unlikely to show BJP below 30 seats
BJP has recovered much more in Chhattisgarh (compared to 2018) than Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan. But the gap has diminished quite a bit and it is likely to see 3-4 seat losses in that State.
In Karnataka, NDA is likely to retain almost all seats and even if it loses a seat or two will compensate by gaining from the Opposition. It may even gain Seats in Karnataka
While BJP is improving its performance versus 2017, there is a clear deterioration versus 2014. BJP is likely end up with some losses, 3 to 6 to be the likely range of loss.
Current All India Trend
BJP has been trending downwards after the Balakot Bounce. It seems to have stabilised a bit this week but even from phase 1, there appears to be a 7% drop. Its implications are fully not clear but one thing is for sure, the vote share gap between BJP and Congress will be substantially lower than 2014
In Sum, BJP has done well where it is not in power at the State level and has struggled where is in power. Perhaps the biggest message of this election is voters are unhappy across the country and they are penalising local Governments for it.