2019 Predictions: Is Praveen Patil right?
Here is a the most bold of Election 2019 Predictions
After 4 phases, have seen voluminous amounts of data, along with turnout differential models, polling booth analytics and swing voter trends. Everything says this is not a close election by any metric. Would be greatly surprising if NDA doesn’t touch 370 on May 23rd!!Twitter
There have been numerous theories on why Praveen has been floating these stories including his past record. But we as predictors must go with an open mind. Let us look at all the evidence with a confirmatory bias and then see if indeed there is such a possibility
Here are 5 reasons why Praveen Patil’s Election 2019 Predictions could be right
- CrowdWisdom360-Aeon’s own Urban Field survey which tracked data daily for two months showed that BJP’s vote share had increased (marginally) over 2014 and this was last tracked on April 1st. Bulk of the vote share losses were incurred by the regional parties
Typically in India, swings tend to be unidirectional whether rural or urban (only the intensity varies). So one can say with some confidence that rural vote share may have increased, not reduced. This could only mean NDA winning more Seats
2. Uttar Pradesh losses may actually not be as severe as expected. In fact the performance could come close to repeating. Look at Google Trends
The above Google data suggests that BJP is likely to outperform its 2017 Assembly election performance and that the MGB will deteriorate further. We have used 2014 as Benchmark and found that this gap was not significant but if one were to ignore 2014 and only benchmark 2017, BJP may end up with higher vote share in 2019 than it did in 2014 and 2017.
3. Modi versus who?
A CSDS survey in March found Modi to be the Preferred choice of 43% of the voters. This was 7% higher than 2014. Assuming some of it dissipated just like the Balakot Spike in our urban survey, Modi would be still be probably closer to 40%, higher than 2014. Typically this would mean a vote swing in favour of NDA. Again tying with point number 1
4. Congress in Serious Trouble?
Going back to our own Urban Field data, even after the initial days of NYAY, Congress was struggling to gain vote share. It may have recouped a bit but it is unclear credibility for this extends across all States.
Congress which appeared to have gained share over 2014 had hardly budged from budget day onwards. While it made some progress with poor and amongst women, it was struggling with every other voting block. The focus has been too narrow
5. Unemployment, Income Growth and even Farmer troubles are not huge issues as made out to be
Unemployment was the number 1 priority for the 11% of the Urban voters, BJP had negative swing of just 2.6%
Income growth was important to 10% of the Urban Voters, BJP had a +5.4% swing in its favour
Farm Income appears to be an issue in many States. Over the last 5 years, agri GVA (current) had grown nearly 7.5% per annum with particular deterioration in the last two years (close to 5%) but with inflation also crashing to below 3%, real incomes have grown. Add that with improvement in quality of life in rural households – Toilets, LPG, Electricity Lastly, Kissan may appear to be small amounts but for poor States like UP, Bihar, Jharkhand, the amount is a significant part of their income. If not anything, the vote losses may be overstated.
What this is telling us really is that NDA could theoretically perform as well as 2014 when it won about 355 seats (AIADMK+JD(U) in and TDP out). Whether it happens or not, time will tell but no harm in keeping an open mind.
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