All India Prediction Winner: Manoj Shenoy
Manoj Shenoy repeats performance again by winning the All India Prediction competition. With this, two Bengaluru folks win top prizes for our prediction competitions. Time to shift our office to Bengaluru perhaps?
In his own words
- While I did get overall NDA, UPA and Others correct, I did go totally wrong in Tamil Nadu, Predictions getting swapped between 2 parties in Odisha & Punjab, Getting the directions correct in Telangana, Assam , Jharkhand & Chattisgarh and getting the numbers almost correct in Uttar Pradesh, Maharashtra, Bihar, Madhya Pradesh, Karnataka, Gujarat, Rajasthan, Kerala and Haryana.
- Biggest indicator for such an accurate prediction were the results of Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and the corrective actions taken by BJP in Chattisgarh. Losses in those 2 states were very narrow for BJP and for the big elections there will always be Modi factor.
- BJP in general ran a positive campaign highlighting the Toilets, Cooking Gas, Electricity, Roads and Homes which could resonate with rural as well as urban poor and middle class whereas Congress persisted with a negative campaign of “Chowkidaar Chor Hai” and Rafale, which normal public could not connect with.
- Another indicator for me was the public rally of Modi that I had attended on April 13th at Bangalore. Seeing is believing!!! People had come with their families, infants , small children, senior citizens and their reactions to Modi were awesome to say the least. I was wondering and visualizing if South Indian city of Bangalore is reacting like this, how it will be in North, West, East and North East!!!
- Another big big indicator is Twitter. I follow a lot of handles on the twitter from Politicians to Media people, From Sports personalities to Film stars. Many media personalities who are generally hostile to BJP had started giving indicators of the ground reality by the end of 3rd phase.
- Attaching my state by state analysis to give a view of how I arrived at these numbers.
Crowdwisdom continues to be a great platform for silent number cruncher like myself. I am pretty sure in the days to come it will get more hits and believe that it will be in top 50 sites of India.