BENGAL 2019 MAY BE UTTAR PRADESH OF 2014
BENGAL 2019 MAY BE UTTAR PRADESH OF 2014 ? In 2014, BJP registered a spectacular victory winning 282 seats on its own. BJP’s spectacular victory in the 2014 Lok Sabha election was based on it sweeping most of north, central and west India. In the Hindi heartland states, it’s tally was 190 out of 225. In Uttar Pradesh alone BJP was able to win 71 seats out of total 80 Lok Sabha seats. Five years down the line many things have changed with respect to BJP’s dominance of UP and the hindi heartland. Thus, for BJP to maintain its hold over power it needs to:
- Maintain the number of seats that it had won in hindi heartland in 2014. However, this may not seem to be possible. In last five years BJP lost couple of seats in by-polls as well as the Assembly election result of 2018 was clear evident that BJP is gradually losing its grip over the hindi heartland. Adding to its misery, in UP the two forces, BSP and SP, have joined hands to defeat their common enemy BJP.
- Look for the new areas where it can expand itself. BJP has however been able to expand its influence in north-eastern states and may also be able to win couple seats, but this may not be able to compensate the loss of seats in Uttar Pradesh and hindi heartland.
West Bengal is electorally rich state, it sends 42 MPs to the Lok Sabha. In 2014, BJP was able to win only 2 Lok Sabha seats in Bengal even at the peak of Modi wave while Mamata Banerjee’s TMC recorded its best-ever performance in Lok Sabha election in West Bengal as it swept 34 of the 42 seats decimating the Left in its victory march. Five year since 2014, BJP seems to have made its presence felt in the strong hold of Didi Mamata. The panchayat elections proved that BJP is on its way of becoming the main opposition in West Bengal. Therefore, that the party has been paying considerable attention to the state in the recent past.
WHAT BENGAL HOLDS FOR BJP IN THIS ELECTION?
Bengal is electorally rich state and sends 42 MPs to Lok Sabha. BJP is banking on to win around 20 seats and these seats are mostly comprise the part of North Bengal. Why North Bengal?
- North Bengal comprises of 19 Lok Sabha seats and these seats are mostly far away from the capital city and if we follow the trend of Uttar Pradesh, Bihar it is found that places far from capital often tend to vote against ruling government.
- Out of 19 seats, there are 8 seats that is worst affected economically, they form the poorest districts of Bengal and have been devoid of government reforms.
- Further TMC, is weak in these seats. Added to it the consolidation of Hindu voters behind BJP is adding to the advantange of BJP and in turn this may be converted into seats.
- The districts of North Bengal are mostly bordering BJP ruled states.
Now let us analyse the various trends and opinion polls regarding the BJP performance in Bengal after the end of 5th Phase of Voting:
First we will analyse the trends of Google and compare BJP’s performance with that of TMC after the end of 5th Phase
The graph shows the growing influence of BJP in comparison to Trinamool Congress in Bengal. BJP seemed to have performed well as per the Google trends.
Now, we analyse some of predictions on Twitter after voting. These are opinions of these handles and the article is not endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
What could happen on the remaining 17 seats? Here is my assessment:— Abhishek Chakraborty (@abhic_1983) May 7, 2019
Purulia (BJP lean)
Jhargram (Tossup between BJP-TMC)
Medinipur (Tossup between BJP-TMC)
Bishnupur (TMC lean)
Ghatal (TMC lean)
Bankura (BJP lean)
Kolkata N (BJP)
4/n) I get the following seat nos based on my simulation SP+BSP 34 seats, NDA: 44 seats & INC 2 seats. pic.twitter.com/VmAkJT9IeL— Mohal Joshi (@MohalJoshi) May 10, 2019
Tripura— Parag bhandari (@Paragbhandari1) May 10, 2019
After analysing these opinion and also the Google trend, it is clear that BJP may lose some seats in Uttar Pradesh but will be able to make inroads in Bengal.
In our prediction, more than 67% of respondents believe that BJP will be able be win more than 5 seats in Bengal.
BJP under Narendra Modi stunned every political pundit in Lok Sabha 2014. However, the 2019 Lok Sabha does not seem be to a smooth sail for BJP. Looking east, BJP is expecting to win couple of seats in seats West Bengal and Odhisha so that it may be able to compensate the losses that it may incur in Uttar Pradesh and hindi heartland. It is time to tell whether Bengal in 2019 will be Uttar Pradesh of 2014 for BJP or not.
AUTHOR: Nitesh Singh