Bengal Odisha and Northeast may come to Rescue BJP ?

Bengal Odisha and Northeast may come to Rescue BJP ?

Bengal Odisha and Northeast may come to Rescue BJP ? India is a nation of election. Every 2nd month we get to witness election in some or the other state. It must be noted that every election be it corporation, assembly or Lok Sabha, carries its own importance. None of the election result should be linked as a prediction of future election. Every election carries its own importance and is fought on the issues that it is concerned with. In 2018 assembly election, BJP lost all its three strong holds in Hindi heartland, Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. Many believed the result of assembly election was an indication of 2019 Lok Sabha outcome. After travelling the three states during the election, one thing I noticed was that the assembly elections were completely centered around the local issues and it had nothing to do with the national issue. People should refrain from linking the assembly election as an indication of Lok Sabha election.

What BJP managed in 2014 Lok Sabha?

In 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP banking on the Modi wave won the majority on its own. However, even at the peak of Modi wave, BJP could not better its performance in the states of West Bengal, Odisha and the north-eastern states. Out of 88 Lok Sabha seats from this region, BJP won only 11 Lok Sabha seats. In Bengal the party could manage only 2 seats of total 42 Lok Sabha. In Odisha too BJD swept the state leaving only 1 seat for BJP. The only state where BJP could better its performance was Assam where it won 7 seats out of 14 Lok Sabha seats.

Predict: Who will be the Prime Minister?

What Changed for BJP after 2014?

Five years down the line, BJP seems to make inroads in this part of the country. The “Look East” policy of BJP seems to make an impact on ground. The party which stood nowhere in the politics north-east, currently has its own government in the states of Assam, Manipur, Tripura and Arunachal Pradesh while in the states of Meghalaya and Nagaland the party is a coalition partner in the government. Let us analyse how BJP made inroads in these part of India within five years.

West Bengal

In 2014 Lok Sabha election, BJP could win only 2 seats of 42 Lok Sabha from the state of West Bengal while TMC led by Mamata Banerjee won 34 Lok Sabha seats. Two years down the line, even in assembly election BJP failed to make an impact in the state. Trinamool Congress swept the state winning 211 of 294 seats. BJP was able to win only 3 seats on its own. However, things seem to have changed completely in the state of West Bengal for BJP.  The panchayat election results in Bengal was just an indication of rise of BJP in the state. After the conclusion of the voting for 2019 Lok Sabha election, if the exit polls are to be believed then the Modi-Shah combination have made a major impact in the state. Majority of the exit polls are predicting around 15 Lok Sabha seats for BJP in the state. Axis My India exit poll which had correctly predicted the results of 2018 Assembly election gave 19-23 Lok Sabha seats to BJP in the state. If this is to hold true on 23rd May then Mamata’s plan to become a pan-India leader may face a major setback.

The Google trend also suggests the gradual rise of BJP in the state. How much this will hold to be true will be decided on 23rd May but as per the exit polls and Google trend data, things don’t seem be good for Didi in her home turf.

Odisha

The 72 year old, Naveen Patnaik, who has served as a Chief Minister of Odisha for four successive terms has been facing the toughest election of his political career this time. The ambitious saffron party, BJP, is looking forward to cut short Patnaik’s march towards a fifth straight term in the power. Added to it BJP which was able to win only one of 21 Lok Sabha in 2014 is heading towards a massive win 2019 Lok Sabha as per the exit polls. Today’s Chanakya, the only exit poll to have predicted majority for BJP in 2014 Lok Sabha and complete rout of Congress, is predicting around 14 Lok Sabha seats for BJP in Odisha while as per Axis My India, the BJP is sweeping the state winning 19 out 21 Lok Sabha seats. If this holds true then Modi may turn out to be the strongest politician in the history of independent India.

North-east India

Away from the politics of Delhi, the north-eastern states of India have gradually gained importance in the political map of India. Once ignored, northeast India became the important part of Modi’s developmental plan. BJP has been strongly eyeing on the 25 Lok Sabha seats of the northeastern states. In 2014, BJP won only 8 Lok Sabha seats in this part of India. However, five years down the line the party went on the form its government in 4 states, i.e, Manipur, Arunachal Pradesh, Assam and Tripura and other states the party is part of the coalition government. BJP along with its allies is hopeful of winning around 20 seats. As per Axis My India, BJP may win 20 seats in this part India 12 more than what it had won in 2014 Lok Sabha election, thus, aiding the “Look East” policy of BJP.

Outcome

BJP which won only 11 seats out of 88 Lok Sabha seats in 2014 may be heading toward a massive breakthrough in 2019 Lok Sabha election in these part of India. If the exit polls are to be believed then the party along with its allies may win about 59 seats, that is about 48 seats more than what it had won in 2014 Lok Sabha. Thus, the states of Bengal Odisha and northeast may come to rescue of BJP and may compensate to the loss seats in Uttar Pradesh and the Hindi heartland as per exit polls.

TOPIC: Bengal Odisha and Northeast may come to Rescue BJP ?

READ: Why the Axis My India Result did not Shock Me?

Writer: Nitesh Singh

politicalnits

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