BJP TO WIN KARNATAKA ?
BJP TO WIN KARNATAKA? Karnataka, a state well known for its software industry, tourist places and bio-technology is the only state in south India where BJP has a better presence. Away from the capital city Delhi, the state has had a record that who so ever formed the government in state went on to lose Lok Sabha election. In 2009, BJP won the assembly election in Karnataka however they lost the Lok Sabha election, similarly in 2013 Congress bounced back in Karnataka state assembly but they lost the Lok Sabha election in 2014. In 2018, BJP became the single largest party, however Congress with the help of JD(S) formed the government.
Will this jinx related to Karnataka be broken in this Lok Sabha election?
The current scenario of Karnataka is that Congress and JD(s) have fought the Lok Sabha election in coalition. Congress has contested on 21 Lok Sabha seats while JD(s) contested only on 7 seats. In contrast BJP contested on 27 Lok Sabha seats of Karnataka and had supported an independent candidate Sumalatha for Mandya seat. It must be noted that Sumalatha is the wife of late Ambareesh who was part of Indian National Congress. Sumalatha is contesting against Nikhil Kumaraswamy, son of Karnataka CM HD Kumaraswamy.
What Changed after 2014 Lok Sabha Election ?
In 2014, Lok Sabha election, that is at the peak of Modi wave BJP won 17 seats of total 27 seats. Congress on the other hand won 9 seats and JD(S) was able to manage victory in 2 seats. BJP received around 43% vote share, Congress’s vote share stood at 40.8% and JD(s) struggled at 11% vote share.
Three years down the line things changed. In assembly election, BJP, though it became the single largest party winning 104 could secure 36.2% vote share down by 7% of what it won it 2014 Lok Sabha election. Congress on other hand won 78 seats with vote share higher than that of BJP that is 38%. However the vote share fell by 2% but it was more than that of single largest party, BJP. Kumaraswamy’s, JD(s), secured 37% vote share and won 37 assembly seats.
In this Lok Sabha election, BJP is expecting to win around 20-22 seats from Karnataka. The leadership is of the opinion that if BJP touches this mark, they will be able to dislodge the coalition government of Congress and JD(s) in the state and retain the power once again. What number of Lok Sabha seats BJP gonna win from Karnataka will be evident on 23rd of May. In the mean time we will analyse the post poll predictions with respect to Karnataka Lok Sabha election.
Firstly, we will analyse the predictions from twitter. These tweets have been liked and retweeted the most on twitter.
It is clear that BJP in Karnataka seems to be gaining more number of seats as per these predictions. Congress-JD(s) may lose few seats as compared to their tally in 2014.
On CrowdWisdom’s platform, here are the predictions
BJP – 66% believe that the BJP will 18 seats or more (Predict here). This is up over previous month
Congress – 43% believe the Congress will win 8 or more seats in 2019 (Predict here).
So it looks like 18-8-2 in Karnataka
After analyzing all the surveys from different platforms and pollsters, it is clear that BJP may be able to repeat 2014 in 2019 in Karnataka. The future of Congress-JD(s) alliance in Karnataka seems to be solely dependent on result of this Election. If in case BJP manages to get over 20+ seats, we may see a new government in Karnataka assembly as well after 23rd May.
Pic Courtesy: Maps of India and Nharshkumar