How many seats for BJP in Rajasthan?
How many seats for BJP in Rajasthan? The Prediction for Rajasthan 2019 is fraught with a lot of difficulties.
- Rajasthan Lok Sabha results tend to correlate strongly with the Assembly election results
- PM Modi is more popular than the the local party and leadership
We will evaluate 4 different methods to arrive at a Prediction for Rajasthan 2019 – Opinion Polls, Google Trends, Crowd Sourcing and Prediction Markets
The Crowd was reasonably accurate in the Prediction for Rajasthan election last year. They came very close to the Congress prediction (3% error) but missed the BJP prediction by 19%
What are they saying now?
Rajasthan BJP: 76% think that the party will win 11 to 15 Seats with a bias towards 15 seats
Rajasthan Congress: 47% think that the party will win 9 to 11 Seats
A conservative take would be 15 seats for BJP and 10 seats for congress
Let us look at the opinion polls for Rajasthan
CNX has been reasonably accurate in predicting the election in Rajasthan (assembly)
Their last opinion poll in April predicted 17 seats for BJP and 8 seats for Congress.
What is the news on Google Trends?
Using this data and assuming 87.5% vote share (Indiavotes) for the combination of BJP and Congress in 2019 (same as 2014), the vote shares in 2019 would be 49.9% for BJP and 37.6% for Congress. This will yield a result of 19 for the BJP and 6 for the Congress party
What is our Prediction Market Saying?
Rajasthan greater than 15 seats for BJP has very low demand
The low demand for the prediction is due to many reasons
- There are easier options available
- Voting is yet to be completed
- Three, it is fairly clear from the above that the 15+ option may not necessarily be 100% risk free.
What are people on Twitter saying?
Summary
The wide range of predictions for Rajasthan indicate a certain level volatility. At the lower end BJP is likely to win about 15 seats (CrowdWisdom360) and at an upper end about 19 Seats (Google). Congress is likely to win between 6 and 10 seats.
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