How many seats for BJP in Rajasthan?

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How many seats for BJP in Rajasthan? The Prediction for Rajasthan 2019 is fraught with a lot of difficulties.

Rajasthan Lok Sabha results tend to correlate strongly with the Assembly election results
PM Modi is more popular than the the local party and leadership

We will evaluate 4 different methods to arrive at a Prediction for Rajasthan 2019 – Opinion Polls, Google Trends, Crowd Sourcing and Prediction Markets

The Crowd was reasonably accurate in the Prediction for Rajasthan election last year. They came very close to the Congress prediction (3% error) but missed the BJP prediction by 19%

Contents

What are they saying now?
Let us look at the opinion polls for Rajasthan
What is the news on Google Trends?
What is our Prediction Market Saying?
What are people on Twitter saying?
Summary

What are they saying now?

Rajasthan BJP: 76% think that the party will win 11 to 15 Seats with a bias towards 15 seats

Rajasthan Congress: 47% think that the party will win 9 to 11 Seats

A conservative take would be 15 seats for BJP and 10 seats for congress

Let us look at the opinion polls for Rajasthan

CNX has been reasonably accurate in predicting the election in Rajasthan (assembly)

Their last opinion poll in April predicted 17 seats for BJP and 8 seats for Congress.

What is the news on Google Trends?

How many seats for BJP in Rajasthan using Google Trends

Using this data and assuming 87.5% vote share (Indiavotes) for the combination of BJP and Congress in 2019 (same as 2014), the vote shares in 2019 would be 49.9% for BJP and 37.6% for Congress. This will yield a result of 19 for the BJP and 6 for the Congress party

What is our Prediction Market Saying?

Rajasthan greater than 15 seats for BJP has very low demand

The low demand for the prediction is due to many reasons

There are easier options available
Voting is yet to be completed
Three, it is fairly clear from the above that the 15+ option may not necessarily be 100% risk free.

What are people on Twitter saying?

Today is last day of campaign of second phase. Difficult seats of second phase for BJP Sikar, Alwar, Dausa, Nagore, Karauli. BJP is ahead as of now in all 5 difficult seats. In First phase, BJP has won 11-12 out of 13 seats (Tonk lost and Barmer 50:50). So BJP should be 21-23— Chowkidaar Arvind Jain (@arvind_barmer) May 4, 2019

For Rajasthan today's 13 seats in Rajasthan My projection after poll
Congress Clear advantage: Jodhpur, Barmer, Pali, Tonk, Kota and Chittor
BJP Clear advantage : Udaipur, Banswara, Jhalawar, Bhilwara
Thin hair contest: Ajmer, Jalore and Rajsamand where margin is <10K— Dr. Kailash Saran (@Kailashsaran73) April 29, 2019

Summary

The wide range of predictions for Rajasthan indicate a certain level volatility. At the lower end BJP is likely to win about 15 seats (CrowdWisdom360) and at an upper end about 19 Seats (Google). Congress is likely to win between 6 and 10 seats.

Check out the winner for the 2018 Assembly election prediction competition and his prediction for Rajasthan 2019