How many seats will BJP win in Odisha?

How many seats will BJP win in Odisha?

Parsuram Panigrahi

How many seats will BJP win in Odisha? Election in Odisha is interesting in 2019 as BJP may gain some seats in Odisha to make it up its loss in Hindi heart land.  Opinion polls gave better numbers in Odisha. The numbers varied from 3 to 15 for BJP. There is large variance because of the following reasons

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MODI’s POPULARITY

54 percent people want Modi as PM and 59 percent people want Naveen babu as CM. So there are at least 15 percent people who want Modi as PM and Naveen as CM. If MP and MLA elections were done separately, they would have voted BJP for MP and BJD for MLA. As they are being held together, so the number of people who will vote Modi and Naveen will be around 5 percent instead of 15 percent. So what the will the impact be on how many seats will BJP win in Odisha?

WEAK CONGRESS

Congress is weak in Odisha. Odisha congress may go Bihar/UP way. So not sure what congress voters will do. Traditionally congress voters have rivalry with BJD in eastern Odisha, so they will vote BJP. In recent Bijepur by-election when Congress got routed, BJD won with thumping margin. Congress voters migrated to BJD en-mass. So in western Odisha with strong BJP and bordering to Chhattisgarh, congress voters will vote for BJD.
There is a Modi wave in Odisha and BJP will gain in terms of vote share. However, the gap between BJP and BJD was more than 20 percent in 2014. So will the gain help in seat share? If so how many seats will BJP win in Odisha?

CANDIDATE SELECTION

Candidate selection throws a different challenge. BJP got decent candidates for MP whereas it does not have candidates for MLA, even a BJP MLA candidate joined BJD before filing nomination. BJD has difficulty in selecting MP candidates. At some places candidates are declared at last minute, so they don’t have enough time to campaign. BJP has filed Suresh Bargarh instead of Suresh Chauhan. It may cost Bargarh and adjacent Sambalpur and Bolangir.

WOMEN VOTERS

Naveen babu is extremely popular among women. Women self-help group across Odisha vote him. BJD has brought 33 percent reservation for women in Panchayat elections. Now Naveen babu has brought 30 percent reservation for candidates in Loksabha. So there are many women candidates that no one had heard about. Will they win? Will the move help them to get more women vote over all? I think BJD may lose couple of seats because of women candidate but will increase their over all vote share in assembly election.

Predict how Odissa Assembly will shape after 2019 polls

Let us use a seat by seat analysis to estimate how many seats will BJP win in Odisha

First phase:

KORAPUT 

Fight is between BJP’s Jairam Pangi and BJD’s Kausalya Hikka. Kausalya Hikka is a candidate because of 30 percent reservation. Jairam Pangi left BJD and joined BJP recently. BJD won last election with slender margin of 14,000 against congress.
Giridhar Gomango former Odisha CM and longest serving MP from Koraput has left congress and joined BJP. So BJP will get most of congress votes and some BJD vote. BJP should win it. Result: Slim BJP Lead
Result: Slim BJP lead

NABARANGPUR

This is a traditional congress strong-hold seat. BJP-BJD alliance won this seat in 1999 and 2004. BJD won it in 2014 with 2000 votes. Current BJD MP is contesting from BJP. So this seat will see a triangular contest and anyone can win with narrow margin. It seems like a congress win as traditional congress seat.
Result: Toss up

KALAHANDI

Kalahandi will see triangular contest among Basanta Kumar Panda of BJP, Bhakta Charan Das of congress and Pushpendra kumar Singhdeo of BJD. All three parties pulled more than 3 lakhs vote in 2014.
BJD won with 50,000 votes. With strong MP candidate congress votes will stick to it and many voters will move away from BJD and congress to BJP. So BJP should win from here.
Result: Strong BJP Lead

BERHAMPUR

BJD won the seat in 2014. BJD has 43 percent vote share where as congress has 29 and BJP 17 percent vote share in 2014.Chandrasekhar Sahu, Congress candidate of 2014 is BJD candidate now. Congress has put Chandrasekhar Naidu (A Telugu leader who cant speak Odia) as its MP candidate. So he will get maximum Telugu votes. As the gap between BJD and BJP was more than 25 percent, it will remain with BJD.
Result: Strong BJD Lead

Second Phase:

BARGARH

BJP lost this seat by 14,000 votes in 2014. BJP bounced back and won the zilla parishad election. So it should have been easy win for BJP.
Naveen Pattanayak choose to contest from Bijepur. BJP denied ticket to Subash Chauhan and gave ticket to Suresh Poojari. So Subash Chuhan left BJP along with most Zilla Parishad members and joined BJD. So BJP is in weaker place and BJD should win it easily.
Result: Strong BJD Lead

SUNDARGARH

BJP won the only seat Sundargarh in 2014. BJP won this seat by 19,000 votes in 2014. He has done decent work and is popular in his area.
However things might not be easy for him. Sunita Biswal daughter of ex-CM Hemananda Biswal is BJD candidate. Rourkela MLA Dilip Roy has left BJP and joined BJD.
So it will be tough fight between BJP and BJD. How much congress voters are voting to Sunia Biswal will decide the result. Despite all the odds Jual Oram may win, but the margins will remain similar to 2014.
Result: Slim BJP lead

BOLANGIR

Kalikesh Narayan Singh Deo of BJD defeated his sister in law Sangeeta Kumari Singh Deo by more than a lakh vote in 2014. BJP has bounced back and own the zilla parishad chairman in Bolangir.
Congress which got 2,77,000 votes in 2014 will get less than a lakh vote now. So the voters who voted congress in 2014 hold the key and will decide the winner.
Result: Toss up

KANDHAMAL

BJD won this seat in 2014 general election by getting 50 percent popular vote and 61 percent popular vote in by election. Educationist Achyut Samant is BJD candidate here.
Many students study at Dr Samant’s flagship school KISS. Mahamegha Bahan Aira Kharbela Swain has joined BJP and declared as candidate in Kandhamal at the last moment.
Though Mr Swain is an able administrator, speaker and proven politician, Dr Samant will win.

Result: Strong BJD lead

ASKA

Naveen babu represents Hinjili which falls under aska. BJD got more than 60 percent vote in 2014. BJD will win this seat easily.
Result: Strong BJD lead.

Third Phase:
SAMBALPUR

Sambalpur is custom made constituency for BJP. It has decent urban population, strong RSS/BJP cadre. BJD won the seat by 30,000 votes in 2014. Suresh Poojari, 2014 BJP MP candidate, has been moved to Bargarh. Naba das Jharsuguda strongman and MLA left congress and joined BJD. So it may not be easy for BJP. Congress got about 2,40,000 votes in 2014. With Naba Das most of it may move to BJD.
As Bargarh and Sambalpur are adjacent constituencies, BJP may feel the ripple effect of not giving tickets to Subash Chauhan in Bargarh. So over all what may have been easy win for BJP looks difficult.

Result: Slim BJD lead

KEONJHAR

BJD won the seat by more than 1,65,000 votes in 2014. Basudev Nayak who fetched more than a lakh vote in 2014 as independent candidate holds the key. He has not shown anyinterest in supporting BJP. So BJD may retain the seat with reduced gap in winning

Result: BJD lead

DHENKENAL

Current Dhenkanal MP Tathagat Satapathy declined to contest. So BJD is filing new face here. This is home constituency for Dharmendra Pradhan. So there is strong BJD wave here.

Result: Strong BJP lead

CUTTACK

BJD got 53 percent poular vote in 2014. Sitting MP Bhartuhari Mahtab is a no-nonsence politician. Prakash Mishra former top cop is famous in Cuttuck. So he will get more vote on urban area.
However Bhartuhari Mahtab will maintain his lead in rural area.

Result: Strong BJD lead

PURI

BJD won this seat in 2014 comfirtaly by getting more than 50 percent popular votes. Modi may contest from Puri has galvanised the BJP cadre. Pratysha Rajeswari, Queen of Nayagarh, was denied ticket by BJD, so she joined BJP. Pradip Maharathi Pipili strong man was arrested on charges of leading an attack on ECI. Puri has highest political violence in odisha. So local congress voters may vote enmass for BJD. So a seat which should have been easy win for BJD is going for a tough fight. BJD will do well in assembly, the number of people’s who vote Naveen for CM and Modi for PM will
decide the winner.

Result: Slim BJD lead

BHUBANESWAR

Aparajita Sarangi has left her IAS job and joined BJP. She has worked as district collector of Khurda and transformed Bhubaneswar. So Bhubaneswar knows her as an able administrator. She has started her campaign earlier and BJD gave ticket to former Mumbai top cop Arup Patnaik. She should win from Bhubaneswar though BJD got almost 50 percent vote in 2014.

Result: Slim BJP lead

Fourth Phase:

MAYURBHANJ

BJD won the seat in a four cornered contest with 37 percent vote. BJP came second with 25 percent votes.With strong Modi wave Mayurbhanj will go with BJP-BJD

Result: Slim BJP lead

BALASORE

BJD won the seat in three cornered contest with 41 percent vote. Both congress and BJP got little more than 25 percent vote.There were complete melt down of congress before Niranjan Patnaik has taken over as congress president. Now there is revival of congress party and he is lunching his son Nabajyoti Patnayak from Balasore.
The result of this seat depends on the number of votes congress gets. If congress gets around 10 percent vote BJP will win. If congress gets around 20 percent vote BJD will win. If congress gets around 15 percent It is close call. I think congress will get decent vote share and BJD will win.

Result: Slim BJD lead

BHADRAK

There is complete break down of congress party here. BJD won the seat with less than 50 percent votes. Complete break down of congress and Modi wave will ensure BJP wins this seat

Result: BJP slim lead

JAJPUR

Jajpur people are said to be smartest and torch bearer of change. We may see high number of Naveen babu for CM and Modi for PM from jajpur. BJD won this seat with margin of 3 lakh votes. BJD got around 60 percent popular votes. There is complete break down of congress party. The number of people who vote Modi and Naveen babu and total vote congress gets will decide the winner. As per me congress is going to loose deposits here and there will be about 5-7 percent people who will vote BJD for MLA and BJP for MP.

Result: Slim BJP lead

KENDRAPARA

Kendrapara will see mother of all battles. Jai Panda is contesting from BJP who was earlier suspended and resigned from BJD for anti-party activity. In 2014 he received more votes than MLA candidates put together. Odia actor Anubhav Mohanty is contesting against him from BJD. Naveen babu is taking this election as his personal pride and utilised all resources to ensure that Jai Panda does not win. Till last few days it seemed like Jai Panda will win. With Naveen spending his time and energy it looks little difficult for Jai Panda

Result: Slim BJP lead

JAGATSINGHPUR

BJD got more than 60 percent vote here. BJP has a new candidate here. So may not get all congress votes.

Result Strong BJD lead

So how many seats will BJP win in Odisha?

How many Seats will BJP win in Odisha?

BJD: 11, BJP: 9 and congress : 1

Thus, BJP seems to be gaining massively in Odissa and it is on it way to hit the Citadel of Naveen babu .

Check how many seats will NDA win in Lok Sabha 2019

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