Is BJP losing Bihar ?
Is BJP losing Bihar ?
BJP losing Bihar ? Bihar, one among the Hindi heartlands, has always played an important role in creation of Central government. In 2014, BJP, riding on the waves of Modi was able to secure 22 out of 40 Lok Sabha and its current ally or its “big brother in Bihar” JDU was able to win only 2 seats. It must be noted that, in 2014, JDU was contesting against BJP but this time they are part of BJP led NDA alliance but to stitch up this alliance in Bihar, BJP had to sacrifice couple of seats. Though BJP won 22 seats on its own in 2014, this time they are fighting only on 17 seats and it partners JDU and LJP are contesting on 17 and 6 seats respectively. Thus, there is already a loss of 5 seats for BJP in Bihar.
WHY BIHAR IS IMPORTANT?
In Indian democratic arrangement, Bihar as a state has always been looked upon as a backward state devoid of development and marked by rampant corruption of politicians and bureaucrats. Political parties have tried kept their political shops afloat by banking mostly upon caste politics and dividing the society, development stood always behind the curtain. However, the beauty of our democracy is that we get an opportunity to elect the government of our choice every five year yet we fail to get what we had voted for. Bihar too had had the same experience since many decades. This time in Bihar we have two camps seeking votes, all in the name of development- Mahagathbandan led by Lalu’s RJD and NDA led by JDU and BJP respectively.
In 2014 Lok Sabha Elections, the BJP with its allies the Ram Vilas Paswan-led LJP and the Upendra Kushwaha-led RLSP won 31 seats in Bihar. The RJD-Congress-NCP alliance was reduced to 7 seats (4+2+1) whereas the Nitish Kumar-led JDU was decimated with just 2 seats in the elections. In 2015 Nitish Kumar ditched the BJP and formed a ‘Grand Alliance’ with the RJD and the Congress in the Bihar Assembly Elections 2015. The JDU, which had 115 MLAs, contested on 101 seats only and left the equal number of seats for the RJD and 41 for the Congress in the 243-member strong Assembly. The BJP, on the other hand, forged an alliance with the LJP, RLSP and the HAM. The HAM was founded by JDU rebel and former chief minister Jitan Ram Manjhi. The BJP contested on 157 seats and left 42, 23 and 21 seats for the LJP, the RLSP and the HAM respectively. The results were a shocker for the BJP-led alliance. The JDU-RJD-Congress alliance routed the NDA in Bihar and won 178 Assembly seats. The RJD became the single largest party with 80 seats, JDU won 71 seats. BJP was able to grab only 53 seats.
BJP has formed an alliance with BJP and LJP in the state. According to seat sharing arrangement, BJP and JDU is contesting on equal number of seats, that is 17 each and LJP is contesting on 6 Lok Sabha seats. On other hand, Rashtriya Janata Dal will contest 20 out of the 40 Lok Sabha seats, Congress will contest nine seats and Upendra Kushwaha’s Rashtriya Lok Samta Party five seats, while Jitan Manjhi’s Hindustan Awam Morcha and Mukesh Sahni’s Vikasshil Insan Party will contest three seats each.
It is clear that Bihar is completely divided into two blocks, NDA and the Mahagathbandhan. Let us analyse which camp is having edge in Bihar after 4th Phase of voting:
First, we begin with some of the key Bihar predictions on Twitter (after 4th Phase) of election. These are opinions of these handles and the article is not endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
#Bihar : #Phase-4 (5 seats)#Begusarai: 55:45 in favor of BJP (NDA).#Darbhanga: 52:48 in favour of MGB#Ujiarpur: 60:40 in favour of MGB#Smastipur: 55: 45 in favour of MGB#Munger: 50:50( MGB/NDA), Dead heat.#LokSabhaElections2019
— Aman Diol (@aman_diol) April 28, 2019
170 are left
UP ~ 41
JH ~ 11
PU ~ 13+1
Har ~ 10
Del ~ 7
Raj ~ 12
MP ~ 23
WB ~ 24
Bihar ~ 22
HP ~ 4
More to go
— Shrin (@ShrrinG) April 29, 2019
#ChintamaniSpeaks #Elections2019 @Election_in Post-poll #Phase4
MH NDA 17/17, BJP 8, SS 9
RJ BJP 13/13
MP BJP 5, Cong 1
UP BJP 12, SP 1
BH BJP 2, JDU 2, LJP 1
JH BJP 3/3
OR BJP 3, BJD 3
WB BJP 4, TMC 3, Cong 1
Total BJP 49(NDA 61), Cong 2, Others 8
Cumulative BJP 182/373, Cong 31
— Chintamani (@IamIconoclast) April 30, 2019
BIHAR- Close fight between NDA and MGB, but NDA holds an edge
Giri 'RAJ' in Bengusarai, Darbhanga and Munger looks bright
Shaky in Ujiarpur and Samastipura
— सव्यसाची -SAVYASACHI (@savvyasaachi) April 30, 2019
After analysis different opinion from different credible handles, it is clear that BJP led NDA is marching ahead in Bihar. This may become a worrisome factor for Mahagathbandhan and entire opposition camp.
Coming to our prediction market, BJP+ winning 28 seats in Bihar has had reasonable volumes with an average chance of coming true. The price after having risen to 51 is now hovering around 49. It is clear that traders are still not fully certain it will or will not happen.
The last set of opinion polls gave NDA a range of 29 to 31 seats
However, on our prediction platform ,
- 50% believe that RJD+ alliance will be between 18-20 seats.
- 69% opinion favour BJP+ to be between 21-25 seats.
BJP led NDA in Bihar may be heading towards a lead over Mahagathbandhan. However, the final results are a little unpredictable at the moment with a best case scenario of a loss of 1-2 seats and a worst case scenario of a loss of 7 to 10 seats. This also explains the low to average demand for all Bihar predictions in the Bihar Prediction market.
Writer: Nitesh Singh