Delhi Assembly Election : Kejriwal to Lose?

Delhi Assembly Election : Kejriwal to Lose?

Delhi Assembly Election : In 2020, the electorates of Delhi will vote to elect the 70 members of 7th Legislative Assembly of Delhi. In 2015, Delhi gave 67 of 70 assembly seats to newly formed Aam Aadmi Party. Arvind Kejriwal took over the charge as the Chief Minister of Delhi. He promised to fulfill the promises that he and his party made to the people of Delhi. The victory reduced the favourites, BJP to mere 3 assembly seats. Arvind Kejriwal and his team got the power to steer Delhi in a direction that they wanted to. However, the success of the team Kejriwal will be decided in 2020 when Delhi will again vote to elect its Chief Minister.

Crowdwisdom Prediction Game

After Lok Sabha 2019, Delhi assembly election will be the most contested election. The ruling AAP will try to retain its power while BJP will be run to take the revenge of humiliating defeat that it incurred in 2015 assembly election. We at Crowdwisdom, give you an opportunity to predict the result of the election and win a cash prize of 25,000. To predict the winner, click here and to know about the rules and rewards of the game click here.

How Things Changed After 2015?

Year 2015 was the most glorious year for the newly formed Aam Aadmi Party. The party was born out of “Anna Andolan.” It was however, heading towards becoming an alternative in Delhi as well as in national politics. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party ended the winning streak of BJP. It also decimated the political career of Congress in Delhi. Indian National Congress couldn’t even open an account in Delhi assembly.

Kejriwal and team could not maintain their political lead in Delhi for long. Two years down the line, in Delhi corporation election Aam Aadmi Party was completely decimated.  The loss did put up a question mark on the future of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi politics.

The party of 67 assembly seats received a major setback again in Lok Sabha election. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party failed to win a single Lok Sabha in Delhi. Added to it, the party lost three of its four Lok Sabha seats that it had won in Punjab in 2014. The loss has casted a doubt on return of Arvind Kejriwal as Chief Minister of Delhi in 2020.

AAP after Lok Sabha 2019

Arvind Kejriwal and team with a slogan “Kejriwal in Delhi” held a public meeting in Delhi. It was in fact a kick start their campaign for 2020 assembly election. In seven Lok Sabha seats, the Aam Aadmi Party came third behind Congress. iIt also lost deposit in three of the Lok Sabha seats.

Arvind Kejriwal in his maiden address after Lok Sabha election assured his followers. “2020 victory of Aam Aadmi Party will be bigger than 2015”. “Lok Sabha election was the election between Narendra Modi and Rahul Gandhi. It was not Kejriwal’s election.” The party supremo Arvind Kejriwal said in order to boost the morale of his party cadres. To what extent Arvind Kejriwal will convince the people of Delhi will be decided in 2020 assembly election. However, let us analyse the party position and its chances to win Delhi assembly election after Lok Sabha debacle.

Prediction for Assembly Election

Delhi Lok Sabha result was enough to create panic in the heart of Arvind Kejriwal and Aam Aadmi Party. Furthermore, party’s vote share reduced dangerously from 33 percent to 18 percent in Delhi. The party fought the election not on its performance of past 4 years of governance but on the agenda of complete statehood for Delhi. The results proved how disconnected the party and its leadership were from the ground reality.

Source: Wikipedia

Lok Sabha Analysis

If the Lok Sabha results are to be interpreted in terms of assembly results, then the situation seems to be completely unfavorable for Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi. First, out of 70 assembly seats, the party stands third in 54 assembly constituency and second in 16 constituency. Second, in none of the 70 constituency the party could perform well. The darker side of the Lok Sabha result for Arvind Kejriwal and team is that, the assembly constituency from where Arvind Kejriwal himself is an MLA, the party lost its deposit. Third, in terms of assembly seats, BJP came first in 65 assembly constituency and Congress in 5 assembly constituency leaving none for the AAP leadership.

Google Trends

We analyse the popularity of Aam Aadmi Party in Delhi in last five year. The Google trends clearly shows how AAP has lost its path in Delhi. The party which was once seen as an alternative in national politics is however, struggling to keep itself alive in its home turf, Delhi. If the trends are to be believed, Arvind Kejriwal and team is heading towards a complete decimation in Delhi.

Outcome

“We failed to convince Delhi residents on why they should vote for us in the general elections. Let’s admit that… But then think about it. It is the AAP government which offered power subsidy, water subsidy, access to good schools, health care and numerous services. Had they voted the BJP or the Congress to power in 2015, even they know that they would never have got these benefits. So, in 2020, be confident that people will vote us to power. My heart says we will break our record of 54%.” Arvind Kejriwal was heard saying in his post Lok Sabha address to AAP cadres. Whether Aam Aadmi Party will be able break their own 2015 record of vote share or not, it is for time to decide. However, going by the trend and the performance of AAP after 2015, the party may be heading towards a complete rout in Delhi.

TITLE: Delhi Assembly Election : Kejriwal to Lose Delhi ?

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Nitesh Singh

CrowdWisdom 360

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