Madhya Pradesh: Advantage Congress ?

Madhya Pradesh: Advantage Congress ?

Madhya Pradesh: Advantage Congress ? Madhya Pradesh, located in central India and often known as “Heart of India”, sends 29 MPs to lower house of Parliament. The political battle in Madhya Pradesh is between the overarching popularity of Prime Minister Narendra Modi and six-month-old state government of Congress. It must be noted that Madhya Pradesh is one of those state where BJP and Congress have been in direct contest with each other. In 2014, BJP swept the state winning 26 seats but four years later, it lost the power at the state level to Congress. The state will be entering the final phase of voting on Sunday, that is 19th May. Voting will be held in the Lok Sabha seats of Dewas, Ujjain, Mandsaur, Ratlam, Dhar, Indore, Khargone and Khandwa.

MODI’s “Chunav”

In 2018, assembly election, there was a wind in Madhya Pradesh that suggested the election to be based on local issues and Modi was considered to be irrelevant to the state election. The central policies like demonetization, the SC ST Act and the introduction of Goods and Service Tax alienated the voters. Six months down the line, Modi is back in the politics of Madhya Pradesh. The election is once again “Modi’s Chunav”. The popularity of PM Narendra Modi with the emotional touch of former Chief Minister Shivraj Singh Chauhan has created a wave in the state, as per BJP. The party is expecting of repeating its 2014 streak in state once again.

What Changed after 2014 Lok Sabha Election?

The 2014 Lok Sabha election was the beginning of Golden Period of BJP as an organization. The party which once had only 2 MP’s in Lok Sabha was in commanding position by winning majority on its own. Since then the party, riding on the Modi wave was able to form government in different states including Uttar Pradesh and Tripura. The Modi wave that began before 2014 was gradually taking over the nation, state after state. However, in 2018, things turned upside down for BJP. The party of Hindi heartland received a huge setback in its own den. BJP lost its government in states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh. After ruling for 15 years, Mamaji Shivraj Singh Chauhan was unable to save his government in Madhya Pradesh, putting an uncertainty upon the return the Modi government once again in 2019.

Rise of Congress

After dark four and half years, the state election of 2018 gave a new hope to the demoralized Indian National Congress. With win the three states of Chhattisgarh, Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh- which collectively accounts for 14 percent of Indian population and 12 percent of parliamentary seats- the Congress has struck a blow in BJP’s own backyard. The battle of 2019 which was seeming to become a cakewalk for BJP turned into a dogfight. The victory gave an opportunity to the fractured opposition to work together to defeat their one common enemy, BJP. The victory also proved the relevance of Rahul Gandhi as a leader and put an end to his incapability of bringing a victory in the political kitty of Congress. However, the question still remains the same, “Will Team Rahul put an end to Modi Wave in Lok Sabha 2019?” May be yes! May be no!

Predictions

The voting for the 21 Lok Sabha seats of Madhya Pradesh was completed with the end of 6th Phase of Voting. On 19th May, the state will witness the voting for the remaining 8 seats. Several predictions concerning the Lok Sabha election in Madhya Pradesh is doing round. We will try to analyse few of those predictions.  

First we will analyse few of the twitter predictions. These tweets have been retweeted and liked most. However we do not endorse these tweets.

These predictions, suggest that BJP may fail to repeat its 2014 streak in Madhya Pradesh and may land up losing few seats in the state. However, speculations are high that if BJP is able to form its government in the Center, the state government in Madhya Pradesh may fall due to defection of the MLA’s.

Let us analyse the Google trend data for last 7 days with respect to Madhya Pradesh

The data suggests that BJP and Congress are in neck to neck with each other in Madhya Pradesh. However BJP seems to be gaining in the state in comparison to Congress. Time will decide whether it is Madhya Pradesh: Advantage Congress or Advantage BJP ?

CROWD’s VERDICT

In Crowd’s Verdict, 70.4% of respondents believe that the BJP may win 19 or more seats . In contrast, 50.9% believe that the Congress will win 9 or more seats in 2019. Therefore in Crowd’s Verdict in Madhya Pradesh: Advantage BJP .

OUTCOME

The Lok Sabha election in Madhya Pradesh has become of deep importance for both BJP and Congress. BJP on one hand is betting on winning more than what it has won in 2014 Lok Sabha while Congress is positive in improving its tally after its victory in 2018 Assembly election. Which party will have the last laugh will be decided on 23rd of May however on 19th May both the party will try to win the maximum numbers of seats out of eight seats that is going for poll.

Madhya Pradesh: Advantage Congress ?

READ: How many seats will Congress win in Madhya Pradesh ?

Pic Courtesy: Hindi News – India TV

Author: Nitesh Singh

politicalnits

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