YOGI the successor to MODI ?
Will Yogi Succeed Modi ? In 2017, Yogi Adityanath sat on the throne of India’s largest state, in terms of electoral representation, Uttar Pradesh, after BJP won with thumping majority, winning 325 assembly seats out of 403 seats. Infamous for his hate speeches or religiously motivated speeches a question was raised about his selection to lead a state having almost 20% Muslim population. However Prime Minister Narendra Modi bestowed his trust upon 5 times parliamentarian, Yogi Adityanath to lead a state which has always been deprived of development and which has always been famous for religious riots. Today it has almost been 2 years since Yogi Adityanath took over power of Uttar Pradesh added to it we are in the middle of election for the supremacy over the “Throne of Delhi Sultanate.”
Recently, in an interview to a main stream media channel, PM Modi mentioned that Yogi has single handedly decimated the two power houses of Uttar Pradesh, BSP and SP. So was it an indication by Modi for his successor or was it just to grab the media attention towards the works of Yogi Adityanath in Uttar Pradesh. Let us try to understand why Yogi could succeed Modi:
LAW AND ORDER
Uttar Pradesh, a state with about 20 crore people, has always been in the bad books when it came to law and order. Every second day, state was hit by some “Politically motivated” religious riots. So, what changed after Yogi became CM?
- After coming to power, Yogi Adityanath gave free hand to Uttar Pradesh police and made public safety priority. As a result, police department started working independently without the fear of any political pressure. This was followed by over 1200+ encounters resulting in death of 40+ criminals and arrest of 3000+ criminals.
- To ensure the safety of women, his government formed “Anti-Romeo Squad” so that the eve-teasers will have no free run.
- To fight against land mafias his government has set up an anti-land mafia task force.
Gujarat has always been regarded as a model state and PM Modi has always talked about development of Gujarat and “Vibrant Gujarat.” In line with Gujarat, an investor’s summit was held in Uttar Pradesh in 2018 which opened the gates for the investors to invest in Uttar Pradesh and in exchange Yogi guaranteed safety of their firm and employees. The state signed MoU’s of about 4.28 trillion rupees. This was evident about the improvement of law and order in state under leadership of Yogi Adityanath.
In the field of education Yogi’s government have taken a far-sighted step. Uttar Pradesh has always been famous for it infamous activities when it comes to education revolution. The state has been in news for its creative forms of cheating during board examination. Thus, to make exam cheating free Yogi’s government installed CCTv Cameras in exam centers, promoted meritorious students and not only this his government also took steps toward the modernization of Madrassa system which was becoming irrelevant due to lack of modern form education.
However, are these enough to consider Yogi to succeed Modi ? May be yes! May be no!
In 2014, BJP on its own won 71 seats out of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh. It is always said that road to the throne of Delhi passes through UP and the party that wins UP wins Delhi. Thus, the future of Yogi Adityanath now solely depends on the 2019 Lok Sabha results and at this point of time road to Delhi for Yogi doesn’t look to be easier. Let us look at the couple of predictions regarding Uttar Pradesh
First, we begin with some of the key Uttar Pradesh predictions on Twitter (after 4th Phase) of election. These are opinions of these handles and the article is not endorsement of their predictions. Most have been retweeted, liked or commented much more than other such predictions.
Got info from a few Journalists of an leading Hindi daily.
As per them BJP figures:
West Bengal 15+
Overall BJP alone 260+
It seems game over for Congress and its sick allies.
NYAY has been a BIG DISASTER
— Suyash Bharadwaj (@Suyash75) May 2, 2019
Feedback from UP of all 4 phases :
1st phase – MGB-5, BJP -3
2nd phase – MGB-4, BJP-4
3rd phase – MGB-7, BJP-3
4 rth phase- MGB 6 BJP 7
Total MGB – 22, BJP -17 @arungiri @partha2019LS @Neeraj_2019 #LoksabhaElections2019
— Vaibhav Purohit (@purohitvaibhav) May 1, 2019
Of 13 UP seats going to poll today, BJP had won all but 1(Kannauj) in 2014
Heres how 2014 would look with Mahagathbandhan scenario (BSP+SP): 7-6 in favour of MGB
and then there are small matters of 5 intervening years, new voters and vote transfer between alliance partners pic.twitter.com/K45bRRZYpj
— democracydatablog (@democracydblog) April 29, 2019
My assessment for 13 seats of UP polled yesterday –
MGB : 06
BJP : 05
Tough Fight : MGB/BJP – 02
INC : 00@INCIndia @BJP4India @samajwadiparty @BSP4IND @RLDparty @yadavakhilesh @Mayawati @RahulGandhi @szarabi @sanjaypugalia @sanjeevrsingh @RabiulBTVI @partha2019LS @AdityaRajKaul pic.twitter.com/KYJtpBhcW2
— Vivek Avasthi (@avasthivivek) April 30, 2019
In sum, there are wide range of predictions where Mahagathbandhan appears to be doing quite well in some and not doing well in other cases. On other hand few pollsters seems to be giving all four phases to BJP.
Coming to our prediction market, BJP repeating 2014 numbers is doing slightly better however chart has something else to tell about future of BJP in Uttar Pradesh for the upcoming election.
On our prediction platform,
- Around 41% people expect Samajwadi Party to win around 20 to 22 seats
- About 45% expect Bahujan Samaj Party to win between 12-15 seats
That takes the alliance tally to 32 to 37 seats
- About 69% expect BJP to win between 37 to 42 seats.
After analyzing all the surveys from different platforms and pollsters, it is clear that BJP may not be able to repeat 2014 in 2019 in Uttar Pradesh. Therefore, it would be too early to consider Yogi to be successor of Modi. Yogi Adityanath still has around 3 years to serve as Chief Minister of Uttar Pradesh. However, the performance of BJP in this Lok Sabha polls may decide future of Yogi Adityanath as Chief Minister of electorally rich state, Uttar Pradesh.
Is BJP losing Uttar Pradesh? Click here to know the facts.
Writer: Nitesh Singh