2024 Lok Sabha: Will it be BJP Election for 400+ Seats?
2024 Lok Sabha: Will it be BJP Election for 400+ Seats ? May 23rd, 2019, a new history was written in the book of Indian politics. Narendra Modi led Bhartiya Janata Party became the only non-Congress government to return to power. Narendra Modi also became the 3rd Prime Minister after Jawahar Lal Nehru and Indira Gandhi to return to power with absolute majority. The result of the election decimated the careers of many political parties and the political families. The “Political Pundits” who claimed to forecast the result lost credibility. However, BJP yet again failed to mark its presence in the states of Kerala, Andra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu. The party scored zero out of 84 Lok Sabha of three states.
The 2014 “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas” is now “Sabka Saath, Sabka Vikas, Sabka Viswas.” BJP is hoping to breach the 50% vote share mark with “Sabka Viswas” in 2024 Lok Sabha election. Will BJP be able to reach its goal, time will tell. However, we try to analyse how 2019 Lok Sabha victory may lead to 400+ seats in 2024 Lok Sabha for BJP.
Changes before Lok Sabha 2024
In 2014, when Narendra Modi took over the power at a center, he came up with 2022 vision document. Modi had already made up plans to retain power until 2024. The 2019 mandate, gives him power to built a road-map for 2024. The changes that we can expect to happen by 2024 in order to achieve BJP’s 400+ seats in 2024 are
- By the end of 2022, India may see its first bullet train running between Mumbai and Ahmedabad.
- As promised, BJP government may be able to double farmers income by 2022. The government may also provide pension to all small and marginal farmers to ensure social security after 60 years of age.
- Ensure LPG connection to all poor rural households.
- Ensure 100% electrification of all households.
- Aim to cover all the secondary schools under Operation Digital Board.
- Strive to ensure all-weather connectivity for every village.
- Under the POSHAN Abhiyaan, aim to reduce the malnutrition level as well as accelerate the rate of reduction of mal-nourishment.
- Improve India’s ranking in Ease of Doing Business.
- Improve the GDP of the country and also increase the share of GDP from manufacturing sector.
- Ensure justice for women and also work towards increasing the women participation in work force.
- Achieve the goal of Clean Ganga by 2022.
The mandate of 2019 may help Narendra Modi led government to bring out all round development in the country. However, will the development help BJP to win 400+ seats in 2024? May be yes! May be No!
BJP No More a Hindi Heartland Party
BJP’s 2014 mandate was particularly contributed by the states of “Hindi Heartland.” The party was therefore, seen as party of Hindi belt. However in 2019, BJP breached its own boundaries and expanded its reach to the states of West Bengal, Odisha and the north-eastern states. However BJP again failed to breach the southern frontiers. Out of 130 Lok Sabha seats from South India, BJP+ was able to win only 30 seats, 25 of it coming from Karnataka alone. Modi Tsunami failed to deliver even a single in the states of Kerala, Andhra Pradesh and Tamil Nadu.
How BJP can breach the South Citadel?
As pointed by one of the renowned pollster Dr Praveen Patil, BJP winning only 4 seats out of 102 Lok Sabha seats from the states of Telangana, Andhra Pradesh, Kerala and Tamil Nadu is a blessing in disguise for BJP. As per him South India will be new Saffron territory of 2024 like East was in 2019.
In 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP won 25 Lok Sabha seats alone from Karnataka but failed miserably in rest of the southern states.
If there is any state in South India where BJP was somehow able to safeguard its interest, it was Telangana. Of the 17 Lok Sabha seats, BJP managed to win 4 Lok Sabha seats. Added to it, the state has completely gone under the dominance of K Chandrasekhar Rao’s TRS. The party enjoys absolute majority in the assembly. Moreover, after shifting of most of the Congress MLA’s to TRS, a void has been created due to the absence of opposition in the state. BJP could, therefore, take the advantage of the situation and fill the space of the main opposition in the state. Telangana is one among the Mission-7 states listed by BJP chief Amit Shah for expansion in states under “vistarak” (expansion) programme.
In Andhra Pradesh, BJP’s former ally Chandrababu Naidu’s TDP was decimated in the election. Not only the party lost the Lok Sabha election but it was reduced to handful of seats in assembly election. The state has thus seen a sweep in favour of Jagan Mohan Reddy and the YSRCP in the state. In Assembly seats, Jagan’s party won 151 of the 175 seats and in Lok Sabha Jagan’s YSRCP has won 22 of the 25 seats. It must be noted that, Jagan, though he has not formally announced to be part NDA but his bonhomie with PM Modi indicates his inclination towards BJP.
Tamil Nadu has traditionally been a thorn in the BJP’s flesh. With perception of BJP being a Hindi land party, the party has barely found its resonace in the state. Of the 38 seats that went into polls, the BJP-led alliance won one seat and the DMK-led alliance won 37 seats. Despite joining hands with ruling AIADMK, the voters rejected BJP completely. It is clear, NDA is out of the picture for next five years in the state. However party have already deployed its mission to conquer the state by breaking into the tightly guarded fortress — be it via religious appeal or other attempts.
Kerala, has been one state where BJP failed miserably. Party was restricted to mere 7.7% of vote share. However, it must be noted that the ruling Left was completely left out in the election. The Congress led UDF won 19 seats leaving just one for LDF. ‘Kerala is as much mine as Varanasi’, PM Modi was heard saying on his maiden visit to state after Lok Sabha 2019 result. It is clear, after the Left lost its control in the state, Kerala is now the next target of BJP.
Schemes that can Help BJP expand its Footprints in South India
- South India has always had an acute shortage of drinking water. PM Modi’s “Piped Water for All by 2024” project can help solve this issue. Added to it soon after forming the government, a new ministry Jal Shakti was announced to fulfill this project of PM Narendra Modi.
- Project to link river Godavari and Cauvery that would resolve water issues between four southern states, was announced by Union Water Resources Minister Nitin Gadkari.
- PM Awas Yojna or Housing for All by 2022 may be a game-changer for BJP for its expansion in South India. The success of project in north was reflected in the results of Lok Sabha election. The poor family who were benefited by the project voted en mass for BJP.
- By 2024, the BJP led central government aims to touch lives of atleast one member of 10 families by the health scheme Ayushman Bharat which provides free medical assistance of upto 5 lakhs rupee. BJP believes that this health scheme will be a game changer in run up to 2024 Lok Sabha election.
The absolute majority of 2019 has given BJP led NDA power to take the country in the direction they want to. The result has given it power to expand its base in the states where it has almost negligible existence. Conquering south of Vindhays would be the next project of Amit Shah and team. Thus, the verdict of 2019 has cleared up the deck for BJP’s 400+ seats in 2024.
Title: 2024 Lok Sabha: Will it be BJP Election for 400+ Seats?