Assembly Election 2019 Predictions : Will it be BJP vs Rest Once Again?
Assembly Election 2019 : On 23rd May 2019, with the declaration of result, a month-long Lok Sabha election concluded. The ruling BJP, under the leadership of Narendra Modi was able to successfully defend its 5 years of governance at the centre. Result of the election also lead to the decimation of many regional political parties. It also ended the domination of number of family strongholds. However, a month after the result of biggest festival of democracy, nation is once again preparing to hold election, this time election to the legislative assemblies of Maharashtra, Haryana and Jharkhand.
The states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana will go in for polls later this year. In 2014, soon after BJP government was formed at the centre, the states of Maharashtra, Jharkhand and Haryana also followed the national trend. BJP was able to form its government in all the three states. However, in the state of Maharashtra BJP failed to secure majority on its own. Shiv Sena, BJP’s saffron ally added up to the numbers of BJP and thereby a coalition government was formed in the state Maharashtra.
Haryana proved to be one of the major success for BJP in the Lok Sabha 2019. BJP was able to win all the 10 Lok Sabha seats of the state thereby sending jitters in the heart of opposition. Haryana is basically a Jat dominated state. 27% Jat population have always played an important role in formation of State Government. This is the reason why the state had mostly had a Jat leader as Chief Minister. However, in 2014, when BJP won the assembly election in the state, Manohar Lal Khattar, a non-Jat was given an opportunity to lead the state government by BJP.
As a Chief Minister, Manohar Lal Khattar has carefully crafted the social fabric of the state. Under his leadership, BJP has successfully increased its influence in the state. Being a non-Jat, he has been able to rally the non-Jat population behind him. In four and half years as a Chief Minister of the state, Manohar Lal Khattar has been able to prove his political might. In the past four-and-a-half years BJP has won Faridabad and Gurugram civic polls, the mayoral elections in five cities, the Jind bypoll and the historic Lok Sabha election.
Changing Face of Haryana
The State Government has taken conscious and concrete measures to absorb youths in jobs, both in government and private sector, skill them to make them employable, and provided unemployment allowance to the jobless. Around 60,000 employees so far have been recruited in various departments of the state government.
Irrigation system reached the last mile village in the state with improved power infrastructure and electricity. The government has also been able to implement the Beti Baccho Beti Padho mission successfully. Success of BBBP can be inferred from the gender ratio of the state which now stands at 914 as per 2018 data.
In last few years M L Khattar has proved himself to be an able administrator. It is due to his able leadership and coupled by the Modi wave, BJP swept the entire state in Lok Sabha election 2019. The mandate in Haryana was so huge that it helped BJP wipe out three political parties in the state, including former BJP MP Raj Kumar Saini’s Loktantra Suraksha Party (LSP), Indian National Lok Dal (INLD) and Jannayak Janata Party (JJP), formed after the split in INLD.
Jharkhand has traditionally remained the bastion of BJP since early 1990s. The 2019 referendum symbolizes the trust and faith of the people in the able leadership of Narendra Modi. BJP along with its alliance partner AJSU won 12 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats of the state. Chief Minister Raghubar Das along with the Modi wave decimated the one of the strongest on paper alliance of Congress, Jharkhand Mukti Morcha and Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P) in Lok Sabha 2019 election.
The victory in Lok Sabha election cannot be taken as the confirmation for victory in assembly election too. BJP who have been in the power since last four and half year will be fighting its own anti-incumbency. Victory in Lok Sabha election however puts the party in pole in the state. But the issue of water, health, road, education will still play an important role in deciding the future leadership of state.
Jharkhand is a state having 40% backward class population and about 27% Adivasi population. However, Raghubar Das is the only Chief Minister of the state who is not an Adivasi. Though BJP smoothly sailed through the challenge of Lok Sabha election, the assembly election challenge will not be an easy sail for BJP. The issue of Adivasi and non-adivasi Chief Minister is expected to rise during the election. If the matter is not addressed at the earliest, BJP may face big hurdles in upcoming Assembly Election 2019.
The state of Maharashtra goes into polls later this year. The 13th Legislative assembly headed by Devendra Fadnavis will come to an end in the month of October and the election to the 288 Legislative seats of Maharashtra Assembly will be held to form the 14th Legislative assembly. In 2014 assembly election, BJP was the single largest party in the state winning 122 seats. However, the party failed to secure majority on its own, thereby a coalition government between BJP and Shiv Sena, which won 63 assembly seats, was formed. Congress, which was in the government then, was reduced to mere 42 seats and Sharad Pawar’s NCP secured 41 assembly seats.
The BJP and Shiv Sena had contested the assembly election 2014 separately. However, they will be fighting the 2019 Maharashtra Assembly election in an alliance, sharing equal seats among themselves after leaving the number of seats for its smaller allies. Speculations are also high, Congress and NCP who fought the Lok Sabha 2019 in an alliance may continue the alliance even in the assembly election.
Lok Sabha Election Result
The result of Lok Sabha election 2019 proved to be a complete disaster for Congress-NCP alliance in the state. For BJP-Shiv Sena, result gave them a chance to rejoice once again. Of the 48 Lok Sabha seats, BJP-Shiv Sena won 41 seats while Congress-NCP managed on 5 seats in the state. Result was more disastrous for Congress who could win only 1 Lok Sabha in the state. Even the party strongman and former Chief Minister of Maharashtra Ashok Chauhan, could not save his traditional seat of Nanded. Victory in Lok Sabha election puts the BJP-Shiv Sena alliance in state at poll position. However, the results of Lok Sabha election must not be interpreted as the result of Assembly election result. The five years of anti-incumbency and the continuous infighting between BJP and Shiv Sena may play a spoiler for them in the upcoming assembly election in Maharashtra.
Soon after the Lok Sabha election victory, BJP have kick-started their poll campaign in the three states. Party president and Home Minister Amit Shah, in order to boost the morale of party cadres celebrated the International Yoga Day in Rohtak, Haryana while Prime Minister Narendra Modi participated in Yoga Day celebration in Ranchi, Jharkhand. Opposition on other hand are yet to decide their future course of action. They are still divided and simply looking for an opportunity to pass the blame on one another.
Buoyed by the outstanding victory in 2019 Lok Sabha election, “Mission 75 Plus” is the target set by BJP national president Amit Shah for Haryana. In 2014 BJP had won 47 of the 90 assembly seats in the state. In 2019 Lok Sabha elections, the BJP outperformed all the political parties in Haryana across 83 Assembly constituency segments. BJP for the time crossed 50% vote share mark in the state. Its vote share has gone up to 58.02%. If BJP is able to hold on to its Lok Sabha lead in Assembly election, then BJP under ML Khattar may be heading towards a landslide victory in the state of Haryana.
In Jharkhand, Chief Minister Raghubar Das is once again set to be the face of BJP. However, this may lead to internal fighting within BJP in the state. The state of Jharkhand has 81 assembly seats and one seat is nominated from the Anglo population. In 2014 assembly election BJP had won 37 seats and 6 MLA’s of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha formally joined BJP, thereby BJP attained simple majority in state.
It is believed that the party that wins Santhal, wins the state. In 2019, Lok Sabha election, BJP registered a thumping victory in Santhal. Face of Adivasi leader Shibu Soren lost his traditional seat leading to BJP breaching his traditional Adivasi vote bank. In Jharkhand too, BJP breached the 50% vote share mark. From 41% in 2014 to 55% in 2019, BJP along with its ally made a massive gain in state. Fragmented opposition is morally weakened and are still figuring out the reason for defeat in the Lok Sabha election. BJP as of now seems to comfortably sail through even in Jharkhand.
Maharashtra assembly election 2019 will be the most interesting of all the assembly elections. The ruling BJP-Shiv Sena alliance may look good on paper but reality seems to be disturbing. The internal rivalry and the chair of Chief Minister may prove to be the bone of contention for the future of alliance in the state. For Congress-NCP, victory in the state of Maharashtra will be an opening for bright future perspective for both the party, not only in state but in nation as whole. In the upcoming assembly election, Chief Minister Devendra Fadnavis has lots to prove. Victory along with successful management of the alliance will be the beginning of his march towards the “Chair of Delhi Sultanate”. However as of now, if both the alliance holds on, BJP-Sena may be heading towards leading the state once again for 5 more years.
Assembly elections of three states turns out to be high importance for the state leadership of BJP. Defeat may not prove to be end of Modi Wave, however, it may lead failure of BJP government at the state level. For opposition, the elections are not less than the “Last Battle of Panipat.” Victory will re-energize not just the party leaders but entire party cadres spread within the boundary of India. Loss may lead to death of opposition in India. Therefore, the assembly election of three state, first after the Lok Sabha election 2019 turns out to be of utmost importance to BJP as well as the opposition.
Title: Assembly Election 2019 Prediction : Will it be BJP vs All Once Again?