Jharkhand Assembly Election : BJP to Come to Power Again?
Jharkhand Assembly Election : In the month of December, the 81 Assembly seats of Jharkhand will go in for polls. The ruling BJP currently holds 43 assembly seats while Jharkhand Mukti Morcha has 19 seats in its kitty. Babulal Marandi’s JVM(P) has 8 seats. In 2019 Lok Sabha election, the JMM and JVM(P) came together and joined the Congress led UPA alliance. However, the result of the Lok Sabha election decimated the entire opposition alliance in Jharkhand. Ruling BJP along with its alliance partner AJSU won 12 out of 14 Lok Sabha seats. The UPA alliance was reduced to mere 2 Lok Sabha in the state.
Jharkhand has traditionally remained a BJP bastion since the early 1990s. The 2019 referendum symbolizes the trust and faith of the people in the able leadership of Narendra Modi. The vote share of BJP in current Lok Sabha election in Jharkhard increased from 40.71% in 2014 to 55% in 2019. All the social coalition, caste equation, tribe and non-tribe differences, religion and community divides failed in front of Modi tsunami. However, will BJP be able to repeat its Lok Sabha feat in Assembly election due in the month of November-December this year?
Prediction and Analysis
In Jharkhand, it is believed that the party who wins Santhal, wins the state. In 2019, Lok Sabha election, BJP registered a thumping victory in Santhal. Jharkhand Mukti Morcha supremo Shibu Soren, also known as “Dishom Guru” suffered a humiliating defeat in his own bastion. It must be noted that BJP breached the strong “Adivasi” vote bank of JMM in the Lok Sabha Election. The result was reflection of tough path for the JMM supremo in coming assembly election.
Challenge for CM Raghubar Dar
In the Assembly election later this year, the pride of BJP in the state is at stake. The victory in Lok Sabha election puts the party in poll position. However, it also increases the level of challenge for the CM Raghubar Das to remain in power in the state. At the state level, BJP will be fighting against its own 5 years of anti-incumbency.
State Election and national election are fought are fought on different issues. This was clear after the result of Lok Sabha election. In 2018 Assembly election, BJP lost the three states of Hindi heartland, Chhatishgarh, Madhya Pradesh and Rajasthan to Congress. Five months down the line, in Lok Sabha election, the same three states had major contribution in BJP’s victory. Therefore, the victory of Lok Sabha should not be interpreted in form of Assembly election victory. Water, health, road, education will still play a major role in the coming election.
Jharkhand is state having 40% backward class population and about 27% Adivasi population. In order to win the confidence of this section of state population, BJP played a masterstroke. Arjun Munda, a prominent Adivasi leader has been made a inducted in Modi cabinet. This move of BJP will help them gain confidence of Adivasi population in upcoming assembly election.
What BJP needs to be Worried About?
Raghubar Das is expected to be the face of BJP in the state once again. However, this may lead to internal fighting within BJP in the state. Leaders like Ravinder Rai, Saryu Rai have already showed their dissent towards the Chief Minister. It was only after the interference of central leadership of the party that the internal fight was brought to halt during Lok Sabha election.
Raghubar Das is the only Chief Minister of the state who not an Adivasi. During the assembly election, the issue of Adivasi and non-adivasi CM is expected to rise in the state. There has been various stances for demand of Adivasi CM for the state within the ruling BJP. If the matter is not addressed at the earliest, BJP may face hurdles in the upcoming assembly election.
The state of Jharkhand has 81 assembly seats and one seat is nominated from the Anglo population. In 2014 assembly election BJP had won 37 seats and 6 MLA’s of Jharkhand Vikas Morcha formally joined the party thereby giving simple majority to BJP. However, in 2019, BJP though looking strong, may face several hurdles in the election. However, if the internal issues a handled, BJP may comfortable sail through in the upcoming Jharkhand Assembly Election.
Opposition on the hand are completely fragmented. Their morale is completely down and are still figuring out the reason for defeat in the Lok Sabha election.