The Rise and Fall of Arvind Kejriwal : Delhi Assembly Election 2020

The Rise and Fall of Arvind Kejriwal : Delhi Assembly Election 2020

Delhi Assembly Election 2020 : Less than a year before the assembly election in national capital, the ruling Aam Aadmi Party is struggling to keep itself afloat in Delhi politics. The results of Lok Sabha election pushed the party to distant third in the state. The same Aam Aadmi Party was at second position in 2014 Lok Sabha election. However, five years down the line, public lost the confidence in Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party. The same public who voted for them in 2014, chose to vote for either Congress or BJP. Congress got the second position in Delhi whereas AAP either lost deposits on most of the seats or were distant third.

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Why AAP lost Delhi Lok Sabha Election?

The results of the Lok Sabha election clearly explained Aam Aadmi Party losing its credibility even in its home turf, Delhi. The reason for the defeat can be summarized as

  • Arvind Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party questioned surgical strike and air strike. His acts were heartily appreciated by the Pakistani media and it became headlines for couple of days in Pakistan.
  • Aam Aadmi Party was born out of Anna Andolan. Before joining politics, he labelled every second politician to be corrupt. However, soon after taking over charge as CM of Delhi Kejriwal was found stage with those politicians whom he labelled to be corrupt.
  • Kejriwal termed Congress to be most corrupt political organisation. He entered politics opposing Congress. However, before Lok Sabha 2019 election he was seen pleading Congress to have an alliance with his party.
  • In four and half years of his government Arvind Kejriwal spent most of his time blaming the Central government for his failure.

The Assembly Election of 2015 was one of the most historic in the history of Indian politics. The party that was born just a few years back decimated the heavyweights of politics in Delhi. Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party won 67 of 70 assembly seats in Delhi reducing Congress to zero and BJP to mere 3 seats. Arvind Kejriwal, thereby, became the next heavy weight of Indian politics. Infact his party was seen as an alternative to BJP and Congress and in the politics. However, five years down the line, Arvind Kejriwal and his party are struggling to keep its house safe. Will Kejriwal and his Aam Aadmi Party be able to win Delhi again? This is the question that even AAP’s party members won’t be able to answer.

Policy of Freebies

Aam Aadmi Party and Arvind Kejriwal rode to power on promises of free electricity and free water. He had promised to make Delhi a world class city in the span of five years. Five years since then, the party has resorted to freebies once again. Arvind Kejriwal once again struck back to his tried and tested formula of winning election. He made an announcement that women will be allowed to travel on all DTC buses, cluster buses and metro trains free of cost so that they have safe travel experience and can access modes of transport which they were unable to on account of high prices. Arvind Kejriwal is hoping that this move will help his party AAP to return to power in Delhi once again.

AAP since 2015 Assembly Election

In 2015, Arvind Kejriwal was very much new comer in politics. He had nothing lose. Even public believed in his promises. Many were heard saying ‘ek baar mauka deke dekhte hai kya pta sach me changes krde sab kuch’. However, in 2020 assembly election, he will no longer be a new comer. He and his party will be defending their 5 years of governance in Delhi. Since 2015 assembly election victory, AAP hasn’t managed to win any election. Even in Delhi the party first lost the Corporation election and then got decimated in the Lok Sabha 2019 election. The path to victory in Delhi assembly election for AAP and Arvind Kejriwal is no longer simpler as it was in 2015. Will Arvind Kejriwal be able to win Delhi once again, it is for time and people of Delhi to decide.

Lok Sabha Result

Delhi Lok Sabha election was enough to create panic in the hearts of Arvind Kejriwal and team. Soon after the results were announced the party began the preparation for Delhi Assembly election 2020 . In 2015 AAP party created history in Delhi. They received over 50% vote share, eating into most of Congress vote share. While BJP was able to keep its vote share intact in the national capital.

In Lok Sabha 2019, the vote share of Aam Aadmi Party has fallen drastically. The party registered a vote share of less than 20%. The party with 67 MLAs out of 70 was pushed back to extreme third in its own home turf. The result was enough for Kejriwal and team to hit the streets once again explain the people of Delhi what they have done and why they should be voted to power once again in Delhi Assembly Election 2020.

Prediction

Lok Sabha election and assembly election are fought on two different issues. In the states of Madhya Pradesh, Chattishgarh and Rajasthan, BJP had lost the assembly election in 2018 however in 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP registered a clean sweep in all the three states. Arvind Kejriwal and AAP is hoping for same result in Delhi assembly election 2020 too. In his maiden address to party workers after Lok Sabha election, Arvind Kejrwal termed the Lok Sabha election to be election of Modi and Rahul. He even assured the workers that they will return to power in Delhi with a bigger majority than 2015.

However, if the Lok Sabha election result were to interpreted in form of assembly election, then the situation seems to be beyond control of AAP supremo Arvind Kejriwal. The party seems to be ahead in none of the assembly constituency of Delhi as per the Lok Sabha result. Added to it the assembly constituency from where Arvind Kejriwal himself is an MLA, the party lost its deposit. 

Google Trend

If we analyse the Google trend data of Aam Aadmi Party for a period of five year that is since it came to power, we can see the rapid fall in popularity of the party. The party is struggling and it is evident from the last minute moves that it is making in order to remain aflot in the national capital.

Outcome

AAP chief Arvind Kejriwal rode to power on promises of cheaper electricity and free water and has resorted to freebies yet again. Since the Congress is still in disarray and BJP lacking any prominent face to take on Kejriwal, the Delhi Chief Minister may make a comeback on these promises, provided he manages to implement them successfully. However, if the ground reports are to believed and Lok Sabha results are to be considered then it is almost end of road for the party with 67 of 70 assembly seats in Delhi.

Read: Arvind Kejriwal to Lose Delhi Assembly Election?

Nitesh Singh

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