UP Assembly Election: Advantage BJP after SP-BSP Break up?

UP Assembly Election: Advantage BJP after SP-BSP Break up?
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UP Assembly Election : The state of Uttar Pradesh was one of the most debated state during the Lok Sabha 2019 election. As saying goes, the road to 7 Lok Kalyan Marg formerly 7 Race Course Passes through Uttar Pradesh, the state was set to play a spoiler for the ruling BJP government. In 2014, BJP had won 71 of 80 Lok Sabha seats in Uttar Pradesh assuring BJP the power of Delhi Sultanate. However, in 2019 Lok Sabha election, Uttar Pradesh was not prepared to give an easy path to BJP leading to Delhi. The two rivals of Uttar Pradesh politics, Mayawati’s BSP and Mulayam Singh Yadav’s SP came together to fight their common enemy BJP.

UP Assembly Election

Lok Sabha Election Result

The result of Lok Sabha election completely changed the political equation of the nation. Uttar Pradesh, a state where BJP was expected to lose big managed to hold on to their ground despite the mighty “Mahagathbandhan” of the opposition. However, BJP did suffer few losses of seats in the state. From 71 Lok Sabha seats in 2014, BJP’s number was reduced to 62 Lok Sabha seats in 2019 Lok Sabha election.

On the other hand, Mahagathbandhan of BSP-SP-RLD, which was expected to sweep the state was able to win only 15 Lok Sabha. Mayawati’s BSP was the biggest beneficiary among the alliance partners. In 2014 Lok Sabha election, her party had managed to win none of the seat in UP but this time due to Mahagathbandhan BSP won 10 Lok Sabha seats. The SP, on the other hand, suffered a severe drubbing as it could win only five seats and three of the ‘Yadav’ family members, including Dimple Yadav, were defeated in their bastions. 

Aftermath of Lok Sabha Election Result

The decimation in recently concluded Lok Sabha election, did cast a question mark on the future of Mahagathbandhan. Putting an end to all the speculations, on Monday 25th of June, Mayawati, BSP supremo officially called off the alliance in Uttar Pradesh. In series of tweets, Mayawati blamed Samajwadi Party for the misfortune of alliance in the state and therefore decided that her party will go alone in all the future elections. BSP and SP along with Ajit Singh’s RLD forged an alliance in the month of January this year and were expected to continue alliance even after the Lok Sabha elections. However, the results of the election were enough for them to call off the alliance in the state.

What Does this Mean for BJP in State?- Predictions

The state of Uttar Pradesh will go in for polls in the year 2022. In 2017, Assembly election BJP swept the state by winning 312 asssembly seats of 403. Yogi Adityanath went on to become the Chief Minister of the largest state of India electorally. In 2019, just before the Lok Sabha election, when Mahagathbandhan was officially formed in Uttar Pradesh, the future of BJP in state was at stake. The alliance was expected to eat away the major vote share of BJP in the state. However, they failed to stop the mighty BJP in the state. Thus, the result of the Lok Sabha election led to an end of alliance in Uttar Pradesh.

Read: Final Days of Congress?

Lok Sabha to Assembly Election

End of Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh may turn out to be blessing in disguise for the ruling BJP. BJP won 62 out of the 80 seats in Uttar Pradesh in the 2019 elections with a vote share of 49.6%. The SP-BSP alliance was a crucial factor for the decrease in tally of BJP in state despite winning the highest percent of vote share in state. If the numbers of the Lok Sabha are interpreted in form of assembly seats, BJP did suffer a major loss due to alliance. Of the 373 Assembly constituencies which had BJP candidate in 2017, BJP had won 302 seats. However, in 2019, BJP was ahead only in 262 assembly constituencies. BSP-SP alliance were ahead in 102 assembly constituencies 62 more than their 2017 tally.

BSP-SP alliance in Uttar Pradesh failed to live up to their expectation in state. The official calling off of alliance by the BSP supremo will once again may lead to

  • BJP versus Samajwadi Party contest in Uttar Pradesh.
  • BSP which was able to revive to some extent in Lok Sabha 2019 may again lose the support that it had gained in the state.
  • Congress may once again fight the election in the state alone.
  • BSP is expected to gain minimum in the state but may manage to win most of Jatav votes.
  • Non-Jatav votes may vote in big number for BJP once again.

Outcome

End of Mahagathbandhan in Uttar Pradesh, turns out to be blessing for BJP in state. In 2017 assembly election, BJP managed to win 312 of 403 assembly seats. In 2022, BJP may be able to breach this number. The reason being in 2019 Lok Sabha election, BJP was able to breach the vote banks of both Mayawati and Akhilesh Yadav. If the trend follows, BJP may win with much bigger margin in state while for Mayawati tough days may be ahead. Akhilesh Yadav on the other hand may return as a main opposition to BJP in state

Predict and Win: Will more Congress leader defect to BJP in June?

Nitesh Singh

Title: UP Assembly Election: Advantage BJP after SP-BSP Break up?

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