Maharashtra Assembly Elections : Fadnavis not to Return As CM?
Maharashtra assembly elections is few months away and seeing the current scenario, the BJP-Shiv Sena combine along with small parties can easily win the majority of seats in Maharashtra. Moreover, with the recent decision of the court which in one way “legitimized” the Maratha Quota, it is a big win for NDA. However, the court reduced the reservation quota from 16% to 12-13%, but is in no way a less figure.
Marathas Backing BJP-Sena Alliance?
Marathas are the biggest caste group in Maharashtra. No other caste/caste group comes even close to Marathas. They can easily make or break governments. They form around 35% of Maharashtrian Population (including Kunbis who come under OBC). As long as any party has their support, it can form the government. Currently, Marathas are behind NDA. The quota has not only silenced the Maratha reservationists but also brought Marathas closer to NDA. So NDA is in a comfortable position. After Marathas, the OBCs are the next biggest grouping. The BJP-Shiv Sena combine has a comfortable 75% vote share of OBCs.
BJP’s Support Base across other Sections of Society
There can be slight changes from Lok Sabha to Vidhan Sabha elections. However, both are in a comfortable lead. There is a good population of Hindu Dalits too, but they are extremely divided. Though Buddhist Dalits aka Neo Dalits are fairly organized now due to VBA, they are not dominant enough to affect NDA. The same in the case of ST and even if VBA joins Congress-NCP combine, it won’t affect BJP-Shiv Sena much. At the max, NDA can lose a few seats and winning margins can reduce.
Can anyone stop BJP in Western Ghats?
The numerically less dominant Upper Castes (CKPs, Brahmins, Vaishyas,Marwadis and Jains) are also strongly behind BJP which can help BJP increase its margin of victories. Moreover, politicians are aware about the ground level scenario than most analysts. Generally, the movement of politicians from one party to another gives a good picture of the ground level. Seeing many opposition leaders joining BJP, we can easily tell that it is advantage BJP.
Most importantly almost 66% of people hold a positive view on both state and central governments according to CSDS post-poll survey.
Therefore, BJP-Shiv Sena is in the pole position in the upcoming polls.
The only thing which can cast a shadow on Devendra Fadnavis is not from outside but from inside NDA! There is still not much clarity on CM candidate from the two NDA partners. There are rumors that it would be shared for 2.5 years between the 2. We have to wait and watch what sort of agreement will the two allies reach. Ultimately squabbling between the two will hurt them the most. Therefore, sorting out all issues like they did before Lok Sabha elections must be done as quickly as possible. If they fight like how the Mahaghatabandhan fought among themselves in Bihar, then they may lead to an unfavorable situation in Maharashtra Assembly Elections.
Title: Maharashtra Assembly Elections : Fadnavis not to Return As CM