Most Major Economic Indicators are slowly improving

Most Major Economic Indicators are slowly improving
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Trade (Newest)

Merchandise Exports: $ 239 Billion (Apr-Dec 2019, Down 2%)

Service Exports: $ 158 Billion (Apr-December 2019, Up 5.7%, Estimated)

Merchandise Imports: $ 357 Billion (Apr-Dec 2019, Down 9%)

Service Imports: $ 98 Billion (Apr-December 2019, Up 7.5% Estimated)

Comment: Export-Import deficit (CAD) has Improved

Inflation

Consumer Inflation for December 2019: 7.4%

States with above average Inflation: Telangana, Tamil Nadu, Odisha, Uttar Pradesh

Comment: Temporary Setback owing to drop in inflation in December 2018 and Increase in December 2019 

Manufacturing

IIP for November 2019: 1.8%

PMI (Manufacturing) December 2019: 52.1 (Highest in 10 months)

Comment: Small turnaround in Manufacturing

Automobile Sales

Car Sales (December 2019) : Down by 8.4% (November was down 11%)

Motorcycle Sales: Down by 12% (November was down 15%)

Scooter: Down by 24% (November was down 12%)

Comment: Slowdown has reduced and likely to improve as emission norms date comes closer. Only Scooters have deteriorated

Service Sector

PMI (Services) December 2019: 53.3 (Highest in 5 months)

Comment: Improvement in services outlook

Banking

Deposits: December 2019: Up 10.1% versus 9.2% same time last year (It was 9.7% same time last month)

Loans: December 2019: Up 7.1% versus 15.1% same time last year (It was 8 % same time last month)

Comments: No major improvement here and in fact continuing to deteriodate on lending side. 

Mutual Funds

Equity Fund Inflows: Rs 4499 crores (Rs 1311 crores in November)

Overall, 5 out of the 7 metrics are showing an improvement. Sustained improvement over the next 3 months will restore consumer confidence and drive up credit and consumption growth as well. 

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