COVID-19 India Forecasts: Is India beginning to bend the curve?

COVID-19 India Forecasts: Is India beginning to bend the curve?
Microscopic view of Coronavirus, a pathogen that attacks the respiratory tract. Analysis and test, experimentation. Sars. 3d render

COVID-19 India Forecasts By Mohal Joshi @MohalJoshi @indiarisingmk podcast. Voracious Reader, Columnist & Podcaster. Interests: GeoPolitics/Defence/Psephology/Politics. 

Please read Mohal’s previous accurate forecast here 

Updated modelling of COVID-19 “projected” case growth for USA & India based on data for the past few days. Mohal had forecasted USA would hit 50k numbers in the month of March only. 


USA: 86038 actual vs 85817 (my projected no) [~0.25% delta]
INDIA: 726 actual vs 764 (my projected no) [~5% delta] 

USA: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be at ~345,000+
“Future projected” values are in black color/white font.

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COVID-19 India Forecasts: As per the adjusted modelling over the next 7 days total cases could be ~1100+


Note: “Future projected” values are in black color/white font.

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No slowdown in the no. of raw new cases in USA where the rate continues on it’s upward trend like before. USA expected to >100k cases by tomorrow. 

COVID-19 India Forecasts shows nascent signs of slowing down (i.e. bending the curve). Now it is premature to celebrate as any new massive cluster outbreak could throw this off but encouraging signs for sure. To see how the curve “has been bent” See projection of cases from Mar 20 onwards if rate was the same vs slightly bending it downwards & the case counts henceforth.

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Again want to reiterate that this is provided no massive new clusters of community transmission are detected. Any such discovery will mean that the curve with snap back up again once more. So the sign of bending the curve is to be treated with extreme caution at this moment. 

Even if the curve is bent downwards this will be a long fight where sustained efforts will be needed by all to ensure that the number is brought down to very low & manageable numbers.

This appeared here first

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