When will Corona peak in India? 6 Predictions
There are numerous predictions put out by experts. Just like the exit polls the range is quite wide from June end to Early September. Here are the latest predictions
1. Early July Peak: A study has predicted that confirmed COVID-19 cases reported daily will show a rising graph till the end of June. The study was conducted by ” Nandadulal Bairagi, a senior professor of Jadavpur University and five other researchers.“A clear downward trend in the confirmed cases is likely to be observed each day from the second week of July
2. Early July Peak: Covid-19 Cases In India Likely To Peak In Early July: Health Economist Dr Ramanan Laxminarayan
3. Mid-July Peak: India may witness COVID-19 cases peaking in mid-July if the current lockdown is lifted this month-end but expected to be a “lower surge” due to strong containment measures in the past nearly two months, Professor and Head of Life Course Epidemiology at the Public Health Foundation of India Giridhara R Babu said.
4. July August Peak: ‘Covid-19 peak likely in July-August’: Dr SK Sarin
Dr SK Sarin, director of the Institute of Liver and Biliary Sciences, who also heads the five-member committee formed to assist the Delhi chief minister to tackle the pandemic
5. Crisis will end in September!: Two members of the Directorate General Of Health Services which is under the Ministry of Health and Family welfare have published a paper in the “The Epidemiology International” a journal of the Indian Association of Epidemiologists making this claim. This paper should not been as a view of the Health Ministry. Analysis shows that the linear line is reaching to 100 in the mid of September, the research paper said. Which is when the epidemic will be extinguished. Multiple factors were considered – case numbers, infection rate, and recovery rate, demographic and environmental factors. Demographic would probably mean age, income and gender mix of the population. Environmental factors could include climate and other related variables
6. Corona Crisis could peak in August- September: Dr. Randeep Guleria, Director of AIIMS
The Truth will be known this week
However, the health ministry when recently asked about the Peak simply said that we are far away from the peak. Instead an ICMR survey whose results will be out in the coming week will give an indication of the scale and size of the problem India is facing. This includes REAL Infection rate. This goes beyond what is the reported by respective State Governments and will include numerous Indians not tested till date.