First Good News of 2020? Monsoon to be above normal

First Good News of 2020? Monsoon to be above normal
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The weather department feels that the Monsoon will above normal this year

How Accurate is the Weather Department in predicting Monsoon?

2019 – Forecast: 96%, Actual: 110%

2018- Forecast: 97%, Actual: 91%

2017-Forecast: 98%, Actual: 95%

2016-Forecast: 106%, Actual: 97%

2015-Forecast: 88%, Actual: 86%

In the last 5 years, On an average, the Weather Department forecasts missed actual rainfall by 6.8%.

But 4 times out of 5, it tends to be over estimate the rainfall.

Looking at the last 5 years data and applying it to 2020, the worst case scenario is 93% which is way better than 2015 when things were quite bad.

So overall, one can say Monsoon is likely to be decent to very good this year. Not a source of major worry.

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