ICMR Funded Study says peak to come only in November
Contrary to the prediction of many experts, an ICMR commissioned Study says India’s peak can be expected only in November, 5 months from now. This indicates, cases will be rising everyday for the next 5 months.
Our Calculations if Peak is November 15
Currently we have around 11 to 12000 cases a day and we have 3.3 lakh cases. A growth of about 3%
If cases were to rise 1% everyday, we will have 1.5 million cases by Middle November
If cases were to rise 2% everyday, we will have 6.4 million cases by Middle November
If cases were to rise 3% everyday (Current rate is 3%), we will have 27.8 million cases by Middle November
In reality, the growth rate is coming down and is likely to be somewhere between 1 to 2% by November which means anywhere between 2 and 6 million cases.
The report written by Operations Research Group Constituted by ICMR says that treatment facilities can be met until the first week of November. Post that, isolation beds could be inadequate for 5.4 months, ICU beds for 4.6 months and ventilators for 3.9 months. India needs to prepare well not just in terms of infrastructure but also deal shortage of healthcare workers.
ICMR issued a denial saying that the study was not carried out by it. It has not denied that it has funded the study