Mamata winning in Bengal Election 2021: Opinion poll West Bengal 2021

Mamata winning in Bengal Election 2021: Opinion poll West Bengal 2021
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Mamata winning in Bengal Election 2021: Opinion poll West Bengal 2021

The Bengal Election 2021 is still 10 months away but the State is heating up. Nearly 10 years ago, Mamata was able to end 34 years of Communist rule in Bengal, now she finds herself under threat as well.

BJP has emerged as a huge threat after winning 18 seats out of the 42 lok sabha seats in the 2019 lok sabha polls. The Bengal BJP under President Dilip Ghosh as well as the work done on the ground by numerous central Governments have grabbed large proportions of the SC/ST vote during the General elections and put Trinamool Congress TMC under huge pressure.

In the meanwhile the BJP has tightened the screws by elevating 3 Ex TMC leaders to the post of General Secretary

West Bengal Opinion Poll 2021 by ABP

A few weeks ago, an opinion poll by ABP CNX has predicted a comfortable win for Mamata Banerjee

ABP’s west bengal election 2021 opinion poll is clear, Trinamool is currently ahead but numerous voters are yet to make up their mind and hence the risks for Mamata are quite high.

We also produce below a detailed analysis by @_TheEnigmous, a Congress supporter from Bengal

Prediction for West Bengal 2021 Assembly Polls:

  • AITC: 194-225 (47%)
  • BJP: 60-87 (37%)
  • INC: 6-9
  • Left: 1-2 (Left+INC 12%)
  • GJM: 2

The TMC is predicted to win 35% of the Hindu Vote, 80% of the Muslim Vote. These are almost similar to 2019 Lok Sabha election with additional Muslim consolidation behind Mamata probably due to NRC

Key Factors as outlined in the analysis of Bengal Election 2021

1) Anti Incumbency against State Govt:

After 2019 results, TMC was on sticky wicket because of “Cut-Money” Issue & then BJP did a mistake by shifting the Narrative to NRC, so anti i/c took a backseat. But there’s a Resentment among people on Corona & Amphan Management though we don’t know the extent of this till this period ends but it’s also true that BJP leaders were seen no where in Lockdown Period

2) Organizational Strength:

BJP has grown Organizationally since 2019, but TMC has not weakened either and hence it is advantage TMC. But if BJP can get Suvendu Adhikari on Board then Election will be wide open

3) Anti Incumbency against Central Govt:

This is Restricted to Urban Areas only.

4) If Not Mamata Then Who?

Though Opposition lacks CM Face, TMC hasn’t been able to Capitalize into this issue wholly

5) BJP Wave in the State:

After 23rd May many people believed that TMC govt will not survive till 2021 & even if they survives, they will surely get defeated in 2021. Then the By Elections took place & this Wave Evaporated.

6) NRC CAA

Results of By Elections proved that, NRC benefited TMC but BJP has able to neutralise this a bit after enactment of CAA. Violence Created by Muslims helped BJP to continue their Propaganda..

Our Read from Google Trends: Gap between BJP and TMC is almost the same as it was during March of 2019 and lower than April 2019.

Dilip Ghosh of BJP has improved quite a bit since April 2019 as a potentially challenger but the gap with the TMC leader Mamata Banerjee is quite stark. For example, in Jharkhand, the gap between Hemant Soren and Raghubar Das was much lesser in April 2019. The Bengal Election 2021 is still 10 months away, enough time for BJP to consider an alternative or Dilip Ghosh to step up his presence.

You can read the entire tweet thread on Bengal Election 2021 here

A thread on how @_TheEnigmous derived these numbers and district level seat forecasts

In the meanwhile the COVID Situation in Bengal is improving. This was a major source of criticism until a few weeks back. Bengal’s active cases have fallen for nearly two weeks now and in this period, death rate amongst completed cases was 2.6%, much lower than many States.

Bengal is already one of the fastest growing economies in the country simply because other States have started to fall in performance over the last 12 to 24 months. In 2019-20 while rest of the States struggled to show even some growth, Bengal’s revenues had grown 12% in the first 11 months

With 10 months to go for the assembly elections, Mamata is ahead. However, a whole host of factors – Anti-incumbency against Mamata, Perceived appeasement of radical Islamists, Issue of Bangladeshis, India’s relationship with China, the State of the Indian economy, West Bengal BJP’s CM candidate etc will all play out. Whoever manages this well will win Bengal Election 2021

Read our analysis on Bengal Election 2021 on Daily Hunt

Read our Previous analysis on Bengal Politics and Events

Join our Fantasy Game on Bengal CM race on crowdwisdom360

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