Bihar Election: RJD+ may win a Landslide in Gaya District
Bihar Election 2020: The Bihar elections are due in 3-4 months and political activity has picked up in Bihar. On the NDA side, BJP finished its first virtual rally while RJD has been actively challenging the Govt while also dealing with alliance issues.
We finished predictions for Gaya District assembly seats today. Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected data from respondents based out of Gaya district. Here is the status of each of the seats.
Seats likely to be won by RJD+ (The Current Alliance)
5. Bodh Gaya
9. Barachatti: Too Close
Seats like to be won by NDA
10. Gaya Town
Net swing from Lok Sabha 2019, -10% against NDA
Except Gaya Town and Barachatti, rest of the seats were led by NDA by less than 20% margin during the Lok Sabha Election 2019 with Gurua having led by RJD+ alliance narrowrly.One major fact we need to point out is that during the Lok Sabha election, our wisdom of the crowd method showed, NDA significantly ahead.
In many ways, the data is logical. Typically, the Modi Factor is calculated at 18% of the vote. With NDA winning 54% of the vote, 18% of 54% comes close to 10%. That is the loss in most assembly elections since May 2019.
Does this mean RJD+ will win Bihar Election 2020? The Answer is No!
The Assembly Seats in Gaya District are a part of Gaya and Jahanabad Lok Sabha Seats. Jahanabad Lok Sabha was won by NDA by a 0.2% margin while Gaya was won by NDA by 16% margin. So these were relatively more vulnerable seats for the NDA. It is when RJD+ win starts leading in seats with 25% margin that it would mean they will in the election later this year.
What are the State level Predictions?
Our State level predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will around 125 seats, a simple majority. Also, when we looked at Google Trends and derived vote shares from there, we arrive at a range between 125 and 135 seats for NDA
Big Challenges for RJD and Tejashwi in Bihar Election 2020
RJD has serious issues with the alliance itself and as things stand today, Tejashwi is yet to match Nitish. He needs to study both Stalin and Jagan on how they managed to edge themselves close to strong CM candidates like Chandrababu Naidu (in 2014) and Jayalalitaa (in 2016). Else, NDA will win once again.