Coronavirus: Delhi,Mumbai give Hope against Pandemic
There appears to be some evidence that we can see Coronavirus pandemic can end in India over the next few months. Not just that, there appears to be greater confidence in being able to turn the curve on account of what has been accomplished in Delhi and Mumbai
- Active Cases in Delhi have been trending downwards from 20th June
- Mumbai has stabilised at 1200-1500 Cases per day and doubling rate more than 30 days
- Delhi’s doubling rate is around 14 days and likely to fall. Which means that Delhi’s worst case scenario is around 2 lakh cases by end of July and not 5 lakh cases as claimed by Manish Sisodia
These are two most significant pieces of information as this implies that if India can overcome Coronavirus in the two big metros, it will be able to do so in other cities and towns as well. The two metros have ordinary healthcare systems, inefficient Municipalities, dense population and massive slum population. If this can be fixed, everything else can be fixed.
Crowdwisdom360 had earlier predicted that India will peak at 25000 cases by end of July. However, with the massive spike last week, it is likely to peak at a higher level.
- India added 97391 cases between 16th and 22 june or 14000 cases a day.
- India added 1.27 lakh cases between 23rd and 29th June or 18000 cases a day
- The next 7 days will be crucial. If India goes up to 24000 cases a day, then India’s peak will likely hit at 50000 cases a day and go down. However, if India sustains Control, it could peak at anywhere between 25000 and 35000 and move down
- Either way, India’s peak is most likely to come in July or early August, not later
The Southern States which opened up rapidly are struggling the most. In the last two days
- TN added 7800 cases
- Karnataka added about 2300 cases
- Telangana added about 1900 cases
- Andhra added about 1700 cases
- Kerala added about 200 cases
Which means 35% of all cases came from the South in the last 2 days. South has just 20% of India’s population.
TN’s numbers are likely to stabilise on account of the intense lockdown. In Andhra, people who had returned back to work are once again back at home while in Karnataka, the Government is running focussed intense lockdowns to keep the situation in control.
These moves will take about two weeks to stabilise the cases.
A combination of improvements in Mumbai and Delhi plus the likely improvements in South by July 15th suggests that India is highly likely to turn the curve in July. While this does not mean we should relax, it however means that we can start being optimistic about the future soon.