Bihar Opinion Poll 2020, latest Analysis and News

Bihar Opinion Poll 2020, latest Analysis and News
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BJP proposes Seat Sharing Formula to JDU in Bihar

BJP has proposed a seat sharing formula to JDU for upcoming Bihar Assembly election. The seat sharing formula as proposed by BJP for NDA in Bihar includes:

BJP – 100 seats

JDU: 110 seats

LJP : 33 seats

Bihar Assembly has a total of 243 seats. Recently former Bihar Chief Minister Jiten Ram Manjhi’s HAM left RJD+ alliance in Bihar. Speculations were ripe that he ma join NDA but with the proposed seat sharing formula by BJP there seems to be no room for other parties to have a separate share of seats in alliance. The only option left for Jiten Ram Manjhi is either to merge his party with JD(U) or contest the upcoming Bihar election on its own.

Congress and RJD have come to a seat share agreement in Bihar

According to the Indian Express, RJD and Congress have agreed to a seat sharing deal with RJD getting 163 seats and Congress getting 80 seats. In turn RJD will give part of its quota to VIP, CPI-ML and BSP. The Congress in turn will give part of its quota to RLSP, HAM and CPI. This assumes CPI-ML, BSP and CPI will join the alliance.

A new opinion poll suggests that NDA will 110 seats while RJD+120 seats

Elections to be Postponed?

Hindustan Times reports that most of the Opposition parties and even Chirag Paswan have asked for postponement of the election due in 2 months time. In 2015, the elections were held between October 12th and 5th November

Nitish in trouble?

In a recent survey carried out by Ormax Media, Nitish Kumar scored just 50 or 7th from the bottom when it comes to approval ratings of Chief Ministers.

Bihar Opinion Poll 2020

We completed round 4 of our Bihar Opinion Poll. Earlier we completed two rounds of Gaya and one round covered Nalanda. In round 2 opinion poll of Gaya we found a shift towards NDA. Whereas in June, RJD was comfortably winning 9 out of 10 seats, In July, RJD was winning only 7 out of 10. In our previous round for Nalanda in June, we found NDA winning a landslide.

Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected fresh data in July from respondents based out of Nalanda district. Here is the updated status of each of the seats.

Seats likely to be Comfortably won by NDA

1. Harnaut

2. Rajgir

3. Nalanda

4. Asthawan

5. Islampur

6.Hilsa (Improved from last month)

7. Bihar Sharif (Improved from last month)

Seats likely to be won by smaller margins by NDA

8. Islampur (Deteriorated from last month)

Last month 6 of the seats were considered as strong for NDA, this month it has increased to 7. It is clear from both Gaya and Nalanda that there has been a shift towards the NDA in the last 2-3 weeks. 

The overall swing against the NDA (versus 2019 election) appears to have reduced from 10% to about 7% this month. This means that gap between NDA and RJD+ which was predicted to be about 4% last month is probably closer to 10% now. This kind of gap at State level could deliver 150+ seats for NDA, may be even more. 

While there appears to be an apparent rift in the NDA, opinion poll participants probably feel confident that the BJP will patch up those disputes before the election. While it is difficult to predict how the JD(U), LJP clash will playout but it is a fact that LJP is unlikely to split with the BJP and the arguments are primarily to ensure LJP gets a good deal in the seat distribution.

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Also, the LJP is less likely to have an impact in Nalanda in any case. The RJD’s problems appear to be more serious –  5 RJD MLCs defected to JD(U), Alliance Challenges continue not just with Manjhi but also with the Congress party at some level.

Election Prediction on the basis of Bihar Opinion Poll 2020

In our last Bihar assembly election Opinion Poll analysis, it was clear that NDA was now heading towards a landslide in Bihar. The Nalanda district opinion poll confirms the trend. The RJD has to come up with newer ideas if it wants to beat the Formidable Nitish and the BJP

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Therefore, the new from Bihar is clear, whatever the gossip around Chirag and BJP and Nitish, people on the ground at the moment favour NDA much more than RJD. As of now status for NDA in Bihar is ‘ Looking Landslide’

Bihar Opinion Poll 2020 : We finished the second round of survey for Gaya District assembly seats yesterday. Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected data from respondents based out of Gaya district. It is clear that bad news affecting the party appears to have impacted the seat predictions as well. RJD which was leading 9-1, two weeks back is now 7-3 ahead with further 2 seats which are very closely contested . Here is the status of each of the seats.

Seats likely to be won by RJD+ (The Current Alliance)

1. Atri

2. Belaganj

3. Imamganj

4. Bodh Gaya (Gap reduced)

5. Gurua

6. Wazirganj

7. Barachatti: (Gap increased in favour of RJD)

Seats like to be won by NDA

8. Sherghati (Switched to NDA compared to two weeks back)

9. Gaya Town

10. Tikari (Switched to NDA compared to two weeks back)

The overall swing against the NDA appears to have reduced from 10% last week to about 7%. This means that gap between NDA and RJD+ which was predicted to be about 4% two weeks is probably closer to 10% now.

Lot of bad news for the RJD alliance in the last two weeks

  1. 5 RJD MLCs defected to JD(U).
  2. An MLA from the RJD also quit the party
  3. National VP Raghuvansh Prasad also quit his post late last month.
  4. Biggest setback could be Jitan Ram Manjhi leaving the alliance in the next few days
Bihar Election 2020: Manjhi may defect to NDA

Does this mean NDA will win Bihar Election 2020?

The Answer is YES!

The Assembly Seats in Gaya District are a part of Gaya and Jahanabad Lok Sabha Seats. Jahanabad Lok Sabha was won by NDA by a 0.2% margin while Gaya was won by NDA by 16% margin. So these were relatively more vulnerable seats for the NDA. So even here if BJP is managing to win 3 seats, and giving close fight in at least 2 more, it is not good news at all for RJD. This is one reason there is so much stress in the RJD alliance with Jitan Manjhi likely to defect to the NDA

What are the State level Predictions for Bihar Election 2020?

Our State level predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) Opinion Poll method suggest the BJP will win around 70 seats and JD(U) will win around around 60. Which means that including LJP, this will easily touch 150. Two weeks ago, this was closer to 130. Which means as of today, NDA is in a position to win 60% of the seats in Bihar Election 2020.

RJD lacks new ideas for Bihar Election 2020

With Jitan Manjhi likely to leave the alliance in the next 2-3 days, things are rapidly deteriorating for Tejashwi. At the moment, the RJD leadership lacks ideas to win somewhat dissatisfied voters on board. On top of all of that, the Corona Crisis prevents everyone from actively campaigning. If the momentum continues with the NDA, RJD will soon struggle for funding and things will only worsen for here. This is one reason why all the partners of the RJD have been counselling Tejashwi to go with a different CM candidate than himself. Whether this will happen, time will only tell

Bihar Election 2020 : Easy win for BJP-JD(U), No for Tejaswi in RJD

Bihar Election 2020 seems to be over before the first vote has been cast. In 2015 Assembly election RJD was the single largest party followed by JD(U), five years down the line same party is struggling to keep its flock together just before the Bihar election. RJD may be missing their leader Lalu Prasad Yadav who is in jail in Ranchi. His son Tejashwi Yadav, former Deputy CM of Bihar was given charge of keeping RJD members together, but he seems to have failed.

On Tuesday, 23rd June, 5 MLC’s from RJD switched to Nitish Kumar’s JD(U). Since RJD had total 8 MLC’s and 5 switched, anti-defection law does not apply to MLC’s. Things did not end here, Raghuvansh Prasad Singh decided to step down from the post of the national vice president of RJD. He is reportedly unhappy at the likely induction of former MP Rama Kishore Singh in the party. However, he is yet to leave the party.

RJD’s trouble is not just within its party members, the existence of alliance, Mahagathbandhan, in Bihar is also a matter of concern. HAM leader Jiten Ram Majhi has already expressed his displeasure and threatened to quit alliance. There are rumours that Congress may also contest alone in the state. One must not forget how RJD declined a Rajya Sabha seat to Congress earlier this year. In such situation Bihar Assembly Election 2020, which was expected to a contesting one, may be over before it began.

Let us analyse the Voteshare of Bihar Assembly election 2015

Bihar Election 2020
Source: Wikipedia

In 2015, BJP contested on 157 Assembly seats and lost more than 104 seats while both RJD and JD(u) contested on 101 seats each and won more than half of their contested seats. RJD won 80 seats while JD(U) won 71. However, in terms of voteshare percent BJP was ahead of both RJD and JD(U). BJP got around 25% voteshare. One must not forget that in 2015 JD(U) was with RJD and this time JD(U) is with BJP. In Lok Sabha election, the nda seats in 2019 almost touched the 40 seat mark.

Bihar Election 2020

However, it is never wise to compare Lok Sabha result with Assembly Election result. From Haryana to Jharkhand to Delhi, results have been completely opposite to that of Lok Sabha election. Bihar Assembly election is 3-4 months away. Due to COVID-19 none of the political parties are able to hit the street for campaign. However, such jolts for RJD just before election, confirms the direction of win. If trend follows, we may see a complete rout of RJD+ in Bihar Assembly Election 2020.

Crowdwisdom360’s Opinion Poll

We have conducted surveys (wisdom of the crowd method) on the Bihar Assembly Election 2020 in Gaya and Nalanda. In Gaya district, which has 10 seats RJD+ seems to comfortably lead in 8 seats while in 1 seat there is competition and in 1 seat of Gaya Town BJP+ is leading. In 2019 Lok Sabha election in the 8 seats where RJD+ seems strong was led by NDA by less than 20% vote margin. In Gaya Town and Barachatti the lead was way higher. It must be noted that Modi factor has always added 20% extra vote to BJP/NDA’s kitty. Read Crowdwisdom360’s Gaya District Survey Result Here

Likewise in Nalanda, which has 7 Assembly seats, NDA is comfortably ahead in ALL the seats. Even in Hilsa and Bihar Sarif, where NDA was ahead narrowly in 2019 Lok Sabha election, NDA seems to win comfortably. The survey result depicts that the seats where NDA lead by 20% or above in Lok Sabha 2019 may be bagged by NDA even in Assembly election. However, the seats where vote% margin was less than 20% NDA may lose the seat or may narrowly win it. Read Crowdwisdom360’s Nalanda District Survey Result Here.

How does this Translate on Crowdwisdom’s Data Analysis for Entire State?

Our State level Opinion Poll predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will win around 125 seats, a simple majority. Our claim is justified by Google Trend data which also shows a range of 125-135 seats for NDA in Bihar. We however, maintain our range between 125-150 seats.

Read: Bihar Election: NDA may win a Landslide in Nalanda District

Predict who will win upcoming Bihar Assembly Election 2020

Bihar Election 2020: RJD+ may win a Landslide in Gaya District

Bihar Election 2020: The Bihar elections are due in 3-4 months and political activity has picked up in Bihar. On the NDA side, BJP finished its first virtual rally while RJD has been actively challenging the Govt while also dealing with alliance issues.

We finished Opinion Poll predictions for Gaya District assembly seats today. Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected data from respondents based out of Gaya district. Here is the status of each of the seats.

Seats likely to be won by RJD+ (The Current Alliance)

1. Atri

2. Belaganj

3. Imamganj

4. Sherghati

5. Bodh Gaya

6. Tikari

7. Gurua

8. Wazirganj

9. Barachatti: Too Close

Seats like to be won by NDA

10. Gaya Town

Net swing from Lok Sabha 2019, -10% against NDA

Except Gaya Town and Barachatti, rest of the seats were led by NDA by less than 20% margin during the Lok Sabha Election 2019 with Gurua having led by RJD+ alliance narrowrly.One major fact we need to point out is that during the Lok Sabha election, our wisdom of the crowd method showed, NDA significantly ahead.

In many ways, the data is logical. Typically, the Modi Factor is calculated at 18% of the vote. With NDA winning 54% of the vote, 18% of 54% comes close to 10%. That is the loss in most assembly elections since May 2019.

Does this mean RJD+ will win Bihar Election 2020? The Answer is No!

The Assembly Seats in Gaya District are a part of Gaya and Jahanabad Lok Sabha Seats. Jahanabad Lok Sabha was won by NDA by a 0.2% margin while Gaya was won by NDA by 16% margin. So these were relatively more vulnerable seats for the NDA. It is when RJD+ win starts leading in seats with 25% margin that it would mean they will in the election later this year.

What are the State level Predictions?

Our State level Opinion Poll predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will around 125 seats, a simple majority. Also, when we looked at Google Trends and derived vote shares from there, we arrive at a range between 125 and 135 seats for NDA

Big Challenges for RJD and Tejashwi in Bihar Election 2020

RJD has serious issues with the alliance itself and as things stand today, Tejashwi is yet to match Nitish. He needs to study both Stalin and Jagan on how they managed to edge themselves close to strong CM candidates like Chandrababu Naidu (in 2014) and Jayalalitaa (in 2016). Else, NDA will win once again.

Bihar Election 2020: RJD Alliance has been bickering for the last One Month

Read our coverage on Daily Hunt Here

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Read our extensive coverage on CrowdWisdom.Live

Bihar Election 2020: NDA may win a Landslide in Nalanda District

Bihar Election 2020: In our previous analysis and data from Gaya, we found that RJD will win a landslide in Gaya District. So the next district we chose was Nalanda, a district that RJD has historically not done well. If RJD does well here, it is game over for NDA.

Using the Wisdom of Crowd (Simple) method, we collected data from respondents based out of Nalanda district. Here is the status of each of the seats.

Seats likely to be Comfortably won by NDA

1. Nalanda

2. Harnaut

3. Rajgir

4. Asthawan

5. Islampur

Seats likely to be won by narrow margin by NDA

6. Bihar Sharif

7. Hilsa

Overall, it is a clean sweep for NDA.

The problem for RJD+ is that while they are able to win back some of the Yadav vote that went to NDA in 2019 and little bits of Dalit and OBC Vote, it does not translate to a swing greater than 10%. So when seen in combination with our previous analysis on Gaya, it seems to be that the only votes RJD+ is winning back is the Modi that votes for NDA ONLY because of Modi. 10% is not enough to win the election in 2020. Which means that the current RJD strategy is doomed to fail.

What are the State level Predictions for Bihar Election 2020?

Our State level Opinion Poll predictions using participants from Bihar and following the Wisdom of Crowd (advanced) method suggest the BJP will win around 125 seats, a simple majority. Also, when we looked at Google Trends and derived vote shares from there, we arrive at a range between 125 and 135 seats for NDA. We believe at the moment that the likely range is closer to 150 rather than 125.

Big Challenges for RJD and Tejashwi in Bihar Election 2020

RJD has serious issues with the alliance itself and as things stand today, Tejashwi is yet to match Nitish. He needs to study both Stalin and Jagan on how they managed to edge themselves close to strong CM candidates like Chandrababu Naidu (in 2014) and Jayalalithaa (in 2016). Else, NDA will win comfortably once again.

On top of it all, senior RJD leader Raghuvanshi Singh Prasad quit as RJD national vice president yesterday and on top of all of that five MLCs SM Qamar Alam, Sanjay Prasad, Radha Charan Seth, Ranvijay Kumar Singh and Dilip Rai resigned from the Legislative Council yesterday and joined the JD(U)

Bihar Election: Raghuvanshi Singh

The Bihar election looks like ending even before it started!

Read our coverage on Daily Hunt Here

Follow us on Google News

Read our extensive coverage on CrowdWisdom.Live

Pic Courtesy: Outlook Magazine

4 Reasons why BJP should not fight alone in Bihar

Bihar elections are likely to be held in October this year. This is of course assuming we have greater control over the COVID situation. One big question is, should BJP abandon and contest on their own just like 2014 when they won 39% of the votes in Bihar

4 Reasons why BJP should not fight alone in Bihar

Here are 4 reasons why BJP should not contest on its own

a. Nitish is not a weak candidate: Nitish enjoys 75% satisfaction ratings in the State (ABP January 2020). This is even higher than 2015 and there is no reason for his 10-15% voters to ditch him and vote for BJP

b. Lack of Strong CM Candidate from BJP: BJP has relied so much on Nitish’s charisma that while they have competent leaders, no one has the kind of broad appeal that Nitish brings to the table

c. BJP Voting base is weaker than 2014: With Nitish and Khushwaha already out of the picture, BJP will operate with a narrower base than even 2014. A variety of scenarios lead us to end up with BJP+LJP winning between 32 to 35% of the votes, almost similar to the new UPA alliance. Of course BJP will try to get back some of its old alliance partners but these partners will be more open to this only if they know BJP will win for sure. Defecting to BJP after the election may be more valuable.

4. Funding: Unlike the previous elections across the Country, BJP will have not have a big funding advantage due to the economic crisis. This will give local and independent candidates a much better chance in the election likely hurting the BJP the most as we saw in 2015 Bihar election

Overall, it is quite a bad idea this year for BJP to contest Bihar on own. The alliance has been working well and instead BJP may be better off replacing Nitish with their own candidate after the election instead of messing up their chances before the election.

Few Facts about Last Bihar Election 2015

Bihar election 2015 was the 2nd big shocker that BJP got after victory in Lok Sabha election 2014, Delhi being the first. Here are some facts about the Bihar Election 2015.

Few Facts about Last Bihar Election 2015
  1. RJD was the single Largest party in Bihar. Led by ex-Chief Minister Lalu Prasad Yadav, RJD got 81 assembly seats.
  2. In terms of Vote share BJP led by Sushil Modi got the highest voteshare. In Bihar Assembly election BJP got 24.4 percentage.
  3. Though RJD was the single largest party and BJP won the highest voteshare, it was JD(u) which got the bigger share in Bihar Government formed after election. Nitish Kumar of RJD became Chief Minister of Bihar.
  4. Tejasvi Yadav and Tej Pratap Yadav, sons of Lalu Prasad Yadav both won their respective Assembly seats. Tejasvi Yadav, younger son Lalu Prasad Yadav went on to become Deputy CM of Bihar. While Tej Pratap Yadav got the Ministry of Health of the State.
  5. 2015 Bihar Assembly Election witnessed only 56.8% of vote percentage. However, since 2000, this was the highest voter turnout in Bihar Assembly election.
  6. The election proved out to disaster of nearly all exit poll. Most of the exit poll gave majority to BJP led NDA in the state. However, agencies like CVoter, Axis and Cicero predicted a win for Mahagthbadhan (JD(U)+RJD+INC) in Bihar.

Bihar is set to go in for polls again in the month of October-November this year. Nitish Kumar who had joined Mahagathbandhan just before Lok Sabha 2014 election is back in NDA. BJP central leadership has already declared that Nitish Kumar will be the face of NDA in Bihar for the upcoming election. On the other hand, RJD will be fighting the election without Lalu Prasad Yadav. He is serving his jail term in Jharakhand for corruption charges. The COVID19 crisis has overshadowed the election fever, however, parties are gradually going digital to reach their voters.

Mahagathbandhan in Bihar Election 2020 : The alliance that is headed for Maha Break Up

Bihar Election 2020: Mahagatbandhan may split anytime

Mahagathbandhan in Bihar : The 2015 Bihar Election was the first successful Mahagathbandhan experiment. Congress, JD(U), RJD came together to form a new political equation in Bihar and as a result the mighty BJP was demolished in the election.

The MGB equation was ready to take on Modi wave in every state, however come 2019, the powerful Mahagathbandhan lost its speed. Its key player Nitish Kumar’s JD(U) was back with it old ally BJP and in the 2019 Lok Sabha election, the Modi wave became a Tsunami and swept away MGB in every state.

Mahagathbandhan in Bihar could split before the election

The 2020 Bihar Election is few months away. NDA under Nitish Kumar’s JDU in Bihar seems to be intact however All Is Not Well in the other big alliance, the Mahagathbandhan which is now headed by RJD under Tejaswi Yadav. In Bihar, MGB allies are RJD, Congress, VIP, Jiten Ram Majhi’s HAM and Upendra Singh Khushwaha’s RLSP. HAM’s national President Jiten Ram Majhi is not happy the way Mahagathbandhan is working for upcoming Bihar election 2020. He had set an ultimatum of 25th June for Mahagathbandhan. He made it clear that if an Coordination Committee is not created by then, HAM is free to take decision independently.

NDA in Bihar has shown maturity since Lok Sabha 2019 election. The three big parties of the alliance – BJP, JD(U) and LJP have already started working towards achieving their goal of forming a government in Bihar under the leadership of Nitish Kumar. On other hand, MGB is still unsure about what steps should be taken and how the alliance partners should work together. One of the big issues of conflict is the CM candidate. Many outside the RJD feel that Tejashwi may not be the best candidate at the moment.

The ripples in the Mahagathbandhan in Bihar was visible when RJD denied Rajya Sabha seat to Congress. Of the two Rajya Sabha seats, Congress demanded one from RJD, however, RJD fielded its candidates in both the seats thereby signalling that all was not good in the alliance anymore. There are rumours that the Mahagathbandan may dump three of its allies that is Jiten Ram Majhi’s HAM, Upendra Singh Khushwaha’s RLSP and Mukesh Saini’s VIP and make way for CPI under Kanhaiya Kumar and former RJD MP Pappu Yadav. However, this may not be a wise move given the large OBC and Dalit base in the State. Khushwaha and Majhi give some access to this large voting block.

Don’t for Get To Read: Vote Share Estimates: 2020 Bihar Election

The Bihar election 2020 is scheduled to be held in the month of October-November later this year. However, the Grand Alliance in Bihar are clueless and yet to figure out the future course of action. The alliance is already over crowded and leadership has no clue about the distribution of seats among the alliance.

Jiten Ram Majhi have threatened the MGB on several occasion, however have remained with alliance. On the other hand the leadership of Congress and RJD are looking for an alternative, may be dumping few of the alliance partners and making room for the new ones. One must not forget that even Congress may leave the alliance as we saw in Uttar Pradesh where the alliance that was supposed to happen between SP-BSP and Congress saw Congress fighting on its own in the state.

The Wide open Bihar election is yet to see a proper contest. The pandemic has overshadowed the most awaited election of the year. However, if things aren’t sorted out by Mahagathbandhan in Bihar at the earliest, NDA in Bihar may return to power once again.

Predict the Upcoming Bihar Election 2020 Here

Vote Share Estimates: 2020 Bihar Election

Using two different and simple methods, we arrive at vote shares for the forthcoming Bihar Election 2020 in October 2020.

Before that, let us look at how the two broad alliances performed in 2015 and 2019

2015

Current NDA, Vote Share in 2015: 47.3% (BJP+JDU+LJSP)

Current RJD Alliance, Vote Share in 2015: 30.6% (RJD+INC+HAM+RLSP+CPIML)

2019

Current NDA, Vote Share in 2019: 54.4% (BJP+JDU+LJSP)

Current RJD Alliance, Vote Share in 2019: 30.6% (RJD+INC+HAM+RLSP+CPIML+VIP): 33.1%

We use two different methods to arrive at a forecast for the Bihar election 2020

Method 1: Remove Modi Factor, 18% of Vote to 2019 Election data

NDA Comes down to 44.6% of the vote

With Others and Independents hovering between 15 to 20% in the last 5 elections

RJD Alliance would be about 35.4 to 40.4%

Method 2: Using Google Trends data relationship with 2015 election data and applying it on 2020 Google Trends Data

NDA Comes down to 43.4% of the vote

With Others and Independents Hovering between 15 to 20% in the last 5 elections

RJD Alliance would be about 36.6 to 41.6%

In Sum

NDA will probably hover between 40 and 45% of the vote while RJD alliance will hover between 35 and 40% of the vote. With these kind of vote shares, NDA is likely to end with 125 to 150 seats, a simple majority. The question is, will there be an X-Factor by October?

Bihar: NDA likely to win less than 130 seats

Crowdwisdom360’s Political Prediction game (which has a 70% accuracy) has predicted that NDA is likely to win anywhere between 120 and 125 Seats. This is a first cut and numbers will keep changing over the next 2 weeks. The seat predictions are as follows

  • JDU – 57 seats
  • BJP – 57 seats
  • RJD – 60 Seats

Bihar Assembly has 243 Seats which means that NDA allies plus RJD allies and Independents will win about 69 Seats. In 2015 these smaller parties together won about 39 Seats indicating a big role for the smaller parties in the Bihar election.If these results come true, this will be the lowest tally won by the NDA since 2005.

The only explanation for NDA’s poor performance is the recent CVoter Survey which showed Nitish had one of the lowest Net Satisfaction ratings of 30. This may be primarily due to the slow growth of the economy over the last 12 months impacting states like Bihar which depend on central support. The handling of migrants has also been criticised by many.

The likely poor performance of the NDA is probably what prompted Shashi Singh who has proven to be a very accurate forecaster to put out this tweet today. He indicated that it is game over for NDA if RJD puts up a good CM candidate (probably not Tejashwi)

It is not game over yet and it will depend a lot on how each party plans and executes over the next 4 months.

The CrowdWisdom360 prediction game is designed like the stock market (without real money) and has proven to be accurate in all elections since May 2019. As time increases, more participants are likely to influence the direction of these predictions. Wait and watch!

To play and win amazon vouchers in the prediction game visit us at http://www.crowdwisdom360.com

Amit Shah’s Virtual Rally: Will BJP dump Nitish Kumar Again?

Amit Shah in 2019 made it clear that BJP will contest in the Bihar election as an ally of Nitish Kumar’s JDU and Nitish Kumar will be the face of NDA. BJP’s other alliance partner in partner Bihar, LJP under current Union Minister Ram Vilas Paswan too accepted Nitish Kumar as the face of NDA in Bihar. However, one year down the line things look different. LJP is no more confident to have Nitish Kumar as the face of NDA in Bihar.

Bihar Election 2020 is due to be held in the month of October-November, 2020. On 6th of June, Amit Shah kickstarted the Bihar election campaign with his virtual rally. BJP Bihar President Sanjay Jaiswal claimed that nearly 40 lakhs people in Bihar watched Amit Shah’s virtual rally.  However, the rally did not give any indication of BJP dumping JDU in Bihar but its other alliance partner LJP has expressed its reservation against Nitish Kumar.

Lok Janashakti Party President, Chirag Paswan in interview clearly said that he will back BJP if it looks for a change of face for NDA in Bihar. It must be noted that though JDU is in alliance with BJP in the state as well at the centre, the party President and Bihar CM has continuously been vocal against BJP on several occasions. The JD(U) chief also refused to accept any ministry in the Central cabinet offered to them after the 2019 Lok Sabha election victory. Chirag Paswan made an indirect appeal to the BJP leadership for change of face in Bihar Election for NDA and asserted that he and his party will back them in any decision they take. He expressed his displeasure on handling of migrants by the Bihar government during the current Corona crisis.

In recent times, Bihar government under Nitish Kumar have had several setbacks. In Muzaffarpur Bihar over 100 children lost their lives to Acute Encephalitis Syndrome (AES). There was a complete failure of state health department in handling the crisis. Similarly, Girls shelter home rape case is still ripe in the minds of people of Bihar. Added to it the handling of migrants by the Bihar government has given BJP some reasons to BJP to dump Nitish Kumar.

The Sushashan Babu failed to provide adequate support to the returning migrants who are estimated to be over 10 lakhs. The opposition is set to take up this failure of Nitish Kumar’s government and target them in the upcoming election rallies. BJP may have gotten some good reasons to break its ties with JDU once again and come up with a strong regional face for the upcoming Bihar Election 2020. However, one must not forget that in 2015, BJP fought against JDU led Mahagathbandhan and came distant 3rd in the state. Therefore, BJP severing ties will JDU will again take JDU closer to RJD and Congress. And this time Nitish may not return.

Why Bihar Under Nitish is an average performer

There is no doubt that Bihar under Nitish has outperformed the previous Government under Laloo but when it comes to comparison with other States, Bihar has been an average performer

Bihar Election 2020: Nitish has been an average performer in the last 15 years

GDP Per Capita Growth (Current), 2005 to 2019, State wise growth (2019 Data is not available for all States)

  1. Telangana: 8.4 times
  2. Uttarakhand: 8 times
  3. Karnataka: 7.8 times
  4. Tamil Nadu: 6.4 times
  5. Andhra: 6.3 times
  6. Haryana: 6 times
  7. Rajasthan: 5.9 times
  8. Madhya Pradesh: 5.9 times
  9. Delhi: 5.7 times
  10. Bihar: 5.5 times
  11. Odisha: 5.3 times
  12. Chhattisgarh: 5.2 times
  13. Bengal: 4.8 times
  14. Uttar Pradesh: 4.7 times
  15. Punjab: 4.7 times
  16. Jharkhand: 4.1 times

When we consider the 16 States for which data is available, Bihar is ranked in the lower half at 10th.

The problem for Bihar

Bihar has a cocktail of problems that are peculiar to the State

  1. High Density plus High Fertility. There are far too many people living in small piece of land and having far too many children per family. While fertility rates have fallen, still a long way to go.
  2. No Rich States are neighbours of Bihar. For an economy to succeed, having a rich market close by helps, Bihar has no affluent market close by. No wonder that Manufacturing made up for just 6% of the GDP.
  3. Because of smaller budgets, Bihar is unable to invest in education and skills, also it is a small market in itself making it to difficult to build a robust service market.
  4. Though Bihar receives generous grants from the centre, it is unable to capitalise fully because of the above issues.

Major Strengths and Opportunities

  1. While Bihar is the poorest State in the country, when it comes to Trade, Repair, Hotels and Restaurants segment, it is the 8th largest. This is the biggest segment in Bihar
  2. Bihar has a robust agriculture sector that is troubled by smaller land sizes. Reforms and interventions can easily increase production substantially given the reach of irrigation in the State.

It is unclear if Bihar’s problems can be solved by better Governance locally. It needs massive central interventions for 4-5 years particularly in developing a robust consumer market that will then be a driving force for that State.

3 Reasons why Nitish will comfortably return to power this year

Bihar elections are likely to be held in October this year. This is of course assuming we have greater control over the COVID situation. However, unlike 2015, the fight is likely to be one sided and Nitish will return to power once again comfortably. Here are 3 major reasons why we think this will happen

a. Satisfied Electorate: Nitish enjoys 75% satisfaction ratings in the State (ABP January 2020). This is even higher than 2015 and there is no reason for voters to ditch NDA and vote for someone else.

b. Lack of Strong CM Candidate from RJD: The survey data is confirmed by Google Trends as well. The search index for Nitish is higher than May 2015 and significantly ahead of Tejashwi Yadav. Had the candidate been Laloo Yadav, the election may have been a little closer if not an RJD win. The opposition does not have a credible CM face and with just few months left for the election, they have little time to present an alternative

c. Strong NDA Voting base: The Caste alliance of the NDA is quite solid.

3 segments of voters vote for the NDA

Upper Castes (15%)

Most of OBCs (32%)

Dalits (15%).

A total of 62% of the voters

In 2019,

NDA won 63% of SC Vote

71% of OBC Vote

73% of General Category votes

This translates to 43% of all votes. It won 54% in total in 2019.

In the event of a worst case scenario like in other States and NDA loses 20% of 2019 vote, it will still end up with 43% of the vote. With others winning another 15-20%, it would be difficult for the opposition to win this election.

Can Jharkhand Happen again?

The big difference between Jharkhand and Bihar is that Raghubar Das was struggling on voter satisfaction due to the slow pace of development and the economy. Secondly, Hemant Soren was doing well on leadership attributes. Third, BJP fiddled around with its alliance before the election. Finally, the caste mix was not as favorable to the NDA like in Bihar. STs+Minorities make up for about 40-45% of the State’s population and some OBCs are far more open to trying the Opposition than in Bihar. So in many ways Bihar is different from Jharkhand

What can go wrong for NDA?

If the opposition can execute a plan that shows

a. Tejashwi in great light

b. Through alliances bring in more SCs and OBCs to vote for RJD Alliance.

c. If an economic crisis can persuade some if not many Upper castes to abandon BJP

If all 3 happen, Nitish will be in trouble. The probability of all 3 is less than 50% at the moment. Then there is Prashant Kishor factor. We have limited information to comment on that. So at the moment, it is Nitish all the way!

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