2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions and Opinion Polls
Germany is set to go in for polls on 26th September 2021 unless a state of Defense is called before it. Last German Federal election was held on 24th September 2017. The current Chancellor of Germany has been at the helm of power since 2005 when she was for the first time elected as a Chancellor.
Since then she has been re-elected thrice, that is in 2009, 2013 and 2018. However, this time Merkel won’t be running for re-election. After being in power for 21 years Merkel has decided to retire from politics this year after 16 years at the helm.
After the decision of Merkel to quit politics, German’s Christian Conservative Union (CDU) elected Armin Laschet as new Chairman of CDU. Armin Laschet has been serving as the Minister-President of the state of North Rhine-Westphalia since 27 June 2017.
2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds and Predictions Summary
2021 German Federal Election: What Happened in Last election?
The 2017 German Federal Election was fought between CDU/CSU coalition and SDP. After the election both CDU/CSU and SDP suffered a significant losses.
None of the political parties had majority to form government, however, in order to avoid one more election, SPD leadership voted to enter into exploratory discussion on 15 December 2017. On February 7th, 2018 a new grand coalition was agreed and out of 78.39% of members of German Bundestag, 66.02% voted in favor of another grand coalition. Angela Merkel was once again voted as Chancellor of Germany.
Current Position of Parties in German Bundestag
2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions: Who will be the next German Chancellor?
The 2021 German Federal Election is expected a cake walk for Union, CDU/CSE. However, the major fight will be for the next German Chancellor.
For CDU after Angela Merkel, Armin Laschet is set to run for the post of German Chancellor . Their alliance partner CSU will have Markus Soder also in race for upcoming German Federal election.
On 10 August 2020, the Social Democratic Party nominated incumbent Vice Chancellor and Finance Minister Olaf Scholz as the party’s lead candidate for the election. He will be running against the Alliance candidate for the upcoming German Federal election.
The prediction and betting platform, Smarkets, have indicated that the fight is going to be close one. As of now, Armin Laschet is ahead of Markus Soder. The platform shows Mr. Armin having 45.05% chances of being elected as next German Chancellor while for Makus Soder chances stands at 43.86% as of now.
As per Sky Bet, the odds for both Armin and Markus Soder are equally placed. The odds for both the leaders stands at 6/5 as per Sky Bet.
Oddschecker, which gives a conclusive odds after taking in consideration major betting and prediction platform, gives and edge to Armin Laschet. His odds as per Oddschecker stands at 11/8 while for Makus Soder odds are 27/20.
PredictIt a leading political prediction and betting platform has high bets in favor of CDU chief Armin Laschet. Here is the latest bets for upcoming German Federal election as per PredictIT
2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions: German Electoral System (Source: Wikipedia)
. The Bundestag has 598 nominal members, elected for a four-year term; these seats are distributed between the sixteen German states. Every elector has two votes: a constituency vote (first vote) and a party list vote (second vote).
Based solely on the first votes, 299 members are elected in single-member constituencies by first-past-the-post voting. The second votes are used to produce a proportional number of seats for parties, first in the states, and then in the Bundestag. If a party wins fewer constituency seats in a state than its second votes would entitle it to, it receives additional seats from the relevant state list.
If a party, by winning single-member constituencies in one state, receives more seats than it would be entitled to according to its second vote share in that state, the other parties receive compensation seats. Owing to this provision, the Bundestag usually has more than 598 members.
In order to qualify for seats based on the party-list vote share, a party must either win three single-member constituencies via first votes or exceed a threshold of 5% of the second votes nationwide. If a party only wins one or two single-member constituencies and fails to get at least 5% of the second votes, it keeps the single-member seat(s), but other parties that accomplish at least one of the two threshold conditions receive compensation seats.
2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions: What does the Opinion Polls Predicts?
The German Federal Election Opinion polls predicts the Union returning to power once again. As per the latest opinion poll released by INSA which conducted fieldwork between 12-15th February, Union (CDU/CSU) may win around 33.5% voteshare while SPD may win just 17% votes share.
Alternative for German, a right wing party may poll 10.5% while the Green party may poll 17%.
Another firm, GMS too give Union edge over the rest. As per their latest poll, Union may poll 37% votes share while SPD may poll 17% and Green Party 18%.
2021 German Federal Election Betting Odds Predictions: Predicted Winner
Looking at the opinion polls and the prediction and betting platforms, CDU/CSU alliance is set to return once again. However, there will be a new German chancellor and most likely CDU leader Armin Laschet may be the next German Chancellor.