Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election: Small Parties to be Kingmaker
The election to Knesset is scheduled to be held on 23rd March 2021. In last 2 years this will be 4th Israel National Election. The last Israel National Election was held on 2nd March 2020. The result was once again a hung assembly with no alliance getting clear majority.
Netanyahu and his rival Benny Gantz agreed to form a Unity Government with both agreeing to share the chair of Prime Minister for 18 months each. However, things never went as planned and as result in last December, the Israeli Parliament, Knesset was dissolved and the country was thrown in for 4th National Election.
In run up to 23rd March National Election, many new political parties have been formed. In the upcoming election, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu may not find easy to return to power once again.
For the upcoming Israel Election here is the list of prominent parties running for the Election. The list is shared by a Twitter handle by name Israel Election Live:
Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election: Latest News
Since Friday that is 19th of March, election silence started in Israel which means no opinion polls are banned for 5 days before the election
As Israel Election approaches, Palestine made an announcement of new elections for the first time in 15 years. Hamas and Fatah agreed to an election timetable this spring that will see the first elections held in the West Bank and the Gaza Strip in nearly a generation. Palestinian parliamentary elections are scheduled for May 22, with a presidential vote set to be held on July 31.
In a Panels Politics Research survey conducted by Menachem Lazar, majority of Left Wing Israelis want Arab Joint List in Government. As per the survey, 62% of left-wing Israelis responded that they want the Joint List in the government, with 20% opposed and 18% with no opinion.
As per the Panels Research poll taken for 103 FM, Yamina leader Naftali Bennett will decide who will be the next Prime Minister of Israel. However, Bennett has said that he will recommend himself as PM candidate. But it is unlikely other parties will heed to his recommendation unless his party Yamina win good number of seats. Likud, Shas, United Torah Judaism and the Religious Zionist Party have always contested in alliance and as per the poll they may win 49 seats. Therefore, it will depend on Yamina whom they will support for forming the government.
Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu pleaded not guilty in corruption on Monday. He was present in the Jerusalem courtroom. Netanyahu was indicted last year for fraud, breach of trust and accepting bribes in three separate cases. Netanyahu has denied any wrongdoing and has dismissed the charges against him as a “witch-hunt” orchestrated by biased law enforcement and media. He has refused to step down and has used his office as a bully pulpit against critics and the criminal justice system.
Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election: Important Dates and Procedure
- Voting rolls close: January 10
- Deadline for parties to submit lists of candidates: February 4
- Deadline to challenge lists: February 11
- Final party lists set after challenges to Supreme Court: February 21
- Election commercials begin: March 9
- Diplomats, soldiers start voting: March 11
- Last day for polls: March 19
- Election Day: March 23
- Final results presented to president: March 30
In Israel any political party to have its candidate enter Knesset should cross the vote share threshold of 3.25%. There are total 120 seats in Israeli Parliament. In order to form a government, a particular party or alliance needs to have 61 MKs.
Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election: Latest Opinion Polls
Opinion polls to Israel Election has somewhat been accurate. Opinion polls will not be allowed to be published from 19th March that is 4 days before the voting day.
The latest poll released by Panel Research and published by Jerusalem Post on 11th March gives Likud 27 seats, Yesh Atid may win 20 seats while Yamina may win 11 and New Hope 10 seats.
Here is a chronological order of Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election released in the month January by various agencies:
Before the election silence started in Israel two channels that is Channel 12 and Channel 13 released their opinion polls for upcoming Israel election. As per the poll Likud has gained some ground but may not be enough for Likud coalition to return to power.
As per poll released by Channel 13 on 19th March, Likud may win 30 seats with Yesh Atid winning 18 seats. Yamina and New Hope may win 10 seats each in upcoming Israel election.
According to Channel 12 which released their polls on19th March itself, Likud may win 32 seats, Yesh Atid 18 seats and Yamina and New Hope 9 seats each.
On 4th March, Opinion poll of Panel Politics was published by Maariv. The poll numbers are set to disappoint PM Netanyahu and diminish his chance of re-election. As per the poll, Likud may win just 27 seats, Yesh Atid 20 and Yamina and New Hope may win 12 each.
As the election is nearing the opinion polls indicates lead of Likud further declining . The latest poll released by Panel Politics and published by 103fm on 29th February show Likud winning 28 Knesset seats, followed by Yesh Atid (19), New Hope (13), Yamina (11), the Joint Arab List (9), Sephardi ultra-Orthodox party Shas (8), Ashkenazi Haredi party United Torah Judaism (7), Yisrael Beytenu (7), Labor (6), Blue and White (4), the Religious Zionist Party (4), and Meretz 4 seats.
As per the poll 43% of respondents said they believed Netanyahu was best suited to be the prime minister while New Hope leader Gideon Sa’ar had support of 42% respondents.
Latest Opinion poll released by Panel Politics on 14th February, show lead of Likud further declining. As per the polls, Likud may win only 28 seats, Yesh Atid may win 18 seats. New Hope may have 13 MKs while Yamina and Joint List may end up winning 10 seats.
On 8th February Channel 20 released its poll numbers for the upcoming Israel election. The poll was conducted by Maagor Mohot. As per the polls Israel may once again see none of alliance getting mojority. Likud will be the single largest party with 31 seats. Yesh Atid may win 18 seats and New Hope 11 seats. Yamina and Joint List may have 10 seats in their kitty. Labor may increase their number from 2 to 6 seats.
The latest opinon poll released on 7th February by Direct Polls show Likud winning 31 seats which is 5 short of number of seats that it had won last election. Yesh Atid and New Hope may emerge as 2nd largest party by winning 14 seats. Yamina may win 11 seats.
On 2nd February, Panel Politics in association with Walla! released their latest Opinion Poll for 2021 Israel Election. As per the polls, Likud may win 31 seats that is 5 less than the tally of last election. Yesh Atid will emerge as 2nd largest party with 18 seats, New Hope may win 15 and Yamina 12 seats. Joint List may win 10 seats.
On 1st February, Channel 20 released their new Israel Election opinion poll. As per the polls Likud may lose around 5 seats that is it may win 31 seats. Previously it had won 36 seats. Yesh Atid may win 17 seats while Yamina may win 12 and New Hope 14 seats. The Arab Coalition, Joint List which recently split may win around 11 seats.
Latest Opinion poll released on 29th January 2021 by Israel Hayom show the seats of Likud further declining. As per the poll Likud may be able to bag only 28 seats if elections are held today. Joint List and Yesh Atid may emerge as second largest alliance with 15 seats each while New Hope may bag 14 seats.
New Opinion poll released by Channel 12 on January 26th show Likud winning 29 seats, Yesh Atid may win 16 while New Hope 15 seats and Joint list 10 seats.
As per the opinion poll released by Channel 12 on 19th January, Likud may win 30 seats, New Hope 15, Yamina 13, Yesh Atid 14 and Joint List 10 seats.
The latest opinion poll released on 14th January give Likud 32 seats. New Hope may be the 2nd largest party with 17 seats, Yes Atid may win 14 and Yamina 12 seats.
The opinion poll released by Channel 12 on 12th January shows Likud loosing the lead the it had gained as per the the last poll released by Channel 13. New Polls show Likud winning 29 seats, 6 less than what it has currently, New Hope 16 seats 13 more than current seats, Yamina 13 and Joint List 10 seats.
The latest opinion poll launched by Channel 13 on 8th of January 2021 show Likud winning 31 seats, New Hope may win 16 seats, Yamina 13 seats and the Israelis may win 5 seats.
The new opinion poll published by Channel 13 on 5th January, 2021 show Benjamin Netanyahu’s Likud winning only 27 seats, New Hope may win 18 seats, Yamina 14 seats and the Israelis may win 6 seats.