Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?

Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?
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The biggest political battle of 2021 ends on 29th April. The Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll will be updated on 29th April.

The final phase of Bengal Assembly election 2021 will be held on 29th April and the Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll will start beaming on all the news channels. At present two phases of Bengal election has been completed and in two phase 30 seats have went in for polling.

Both BJP and TMC claim to have won maximum seats in both the phases. However, which party has won maximum seats will be decided on 2nd May. As of now Bengal election is turning out to be the biggest political battle of 2021.

Home Minister Amit Shah while addressing rally in Bengal for third phase which is scheduled on 6th of April said that out of 60 seats BJP is in a position to win minimum of 50 seats. Both the parties are putting in their entire machinery to spread their messages.

The Bengal election 2021 Exit poll will be released on 29th or 30th April. It will totally dependent on the direction of Election Commission of India. Once the Bengal Election Opinion polls are released we start updating in this space. In the mean time here we share with you the Exit poll results of last Bengal election. In last election TMC had won 211 Assembly seats, Congress won 44, Left Front had won 14 and BJP had won only 3 seats.

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Latest News

Bengal election Exit Poll Update: Election Commission bans BJP Bengal President, Dilip from campaigning for 24 hours.

Election Commission of India: No plans to merge last four phases of Bengal Election

MoneyControl: EC to deploy at least 853 companies of central forces to ensure free and fair voting in fifth phase

BJP’s minority cell in Cooch Behar filed a case against West Bengal CM Mamata Banerjee for instigating People of Bengal

Bengal Election Exit Poll: Estimation by Prashant Kishore, Mamata Banerjee’s Election Strategist

BJP: 40%

Left-INC: 10-15%

Others (last 2 elections average): 12%

Therefore, TMC: 33% to 38%

Note: TMC can only win if ‘Others’ reduces to 6%

Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Google Search as on 6th April

2016 (March-April): BJP: 63%, TMC: 37%

2019 (April-May): BJP: 80%, TMC: 20%

Last one month: BJP: 78%, TMC: 22%

Last one week: BJP: 74%, TMC: 26%

Last 24 hours: BJP: 74%, TMC: 26%

In Phase 1: BJP: 72%, TMC: 28% 

In Phase 2: BJP: 71%, TMC: 29% 

Phase III: BJP: 62%, TMC: 20%, 2019, Same Seats BJP: 75%, TMC: 12%

Bengal Election Exit Poll of Last Election
Polling Agency  AITC  Congress + Left  NDA  Others
ABP News–Nielsen 163 126 1 4
India Today-Axis 243 44 4 3
Times Now–CVoter 167 120 4 3
News 24–Today’s Chanakya 210 70 14  –
NDTV 184 103 5 2
BRACE-News Time-খবর ৩৬৫ দিন 214 72 3 5
Bengal election Exit Poll 2016
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Key Analysis of Bengal Assembly Election 2021
Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll

1) Anti Incumbency against State Govt:

After 2019 results, TMC was on sticky wicket because of “Cut-Money” Issue & then BJP did a mistake by shifting the Narrative to NRC, so anti i/c took a backseat. But there’s a Resentment among people on Corona & Amphan Management though we don’t know the extent of this till this period ends but it’s also true that BJP leaders were seen no where in Lockdown Period

2) Organizational Strength:

BJP has grown Organizationally since 2019, but TMC has not weakened either and hence it is advantage TMC. But if BJP can get Suvendu Adhikari on Board then Election will be wide open

3) Anti Incumbency against Central Govt:

This is Restricted to Urban Areas only.

4) If Not Mamata Then Who?

Though Opposition lacks CM Face, TMC hasn’t been able to Capitalize into this issue wholly

5) BJP Wave in the State:

After 23rd May many people believed that TMC govt will not survive till 2021 & even if they survives, they will surely get defeated in 2021. Then the By Elections took place & this Wave Evaporated.

6) NRC CAA

Results of By Elections proved that, NRC benefited TMC but BJP has able to neutralise this a bit after enactment of CAA. Violence Created by Muslims helped BJP to continue their Propaganda.

Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Polling and Result Date

West Bengal Assembly election will be conducted in 8 phases starting from 27th March. Result will be declared on May 2nd.

Here is the break out of election dates district wise:

(1) 27th March: 2020 District of Purulia, Some assemblies Bankura 1, Jhargram, Some assemblies of Medinipur :  30 Constituencies –

(2) 1st April:  Bankura 2 , Medinipur 2, South 24 Pargana 1: 30 Constituencies 

(3) 6 April:  Howrah 1 , Hooghly 1 and South 24 Pargana 2:  31 Constituencies

(4) 10 April: Howrah 2 , Hooghly 2 , South 24 Pargana 3 , Alipurduar , Cooch Behar : 44 Constituencies

(5) 17 April: North 24 Pargana, Nadia1, Purba Bardaman1, Darjeeling , Kalimpong, Jalpaiguri: 45 Constituencies

(6)  22nd April: North 24 Pargana 2, Nadia 2,Purba Bardaman,Uttar Dinajpur : 43 Constituencies

7) 26 April: Malda 1, Murshidabad 1, Paschim Bardaman, Kolkata  South, Dakshin Dinajpur: 36 Constituencies

(8) 29th April: Malda 2, Murshidabad 2, Bhirbhum, Kolkata North: 35 Constituencies

Read: Bengal Election 2021 Opinion Poll here

Also Read : Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: AIADMK+ winning Tamil Nadu Election?

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Ashokekumar Mukherjee
Ashokekumar Mukherjee
5 months ago

TMC will form Government with 205-225 MLAs in the Assembly.Bjp will be the poor third with less than 40 MLAs.Left and Congress will do better.

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