Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: AIADMK+ winning Tamil Nadu Election?

Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: AIADMK+ winning Tamil Nadu Election?
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The Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021 will be updated only after end of last phase of voting in West Bengal that is on 29th April, 2021.

The voting for 234 seats of Tamil Nadu concluded on 6th April and the future of all the candidates are now sealed in EVM machines. The counting will be conducted on 2nd of May that is after the final phase of Bengal election concludes. The Tamil Nadu Election Opinion polls have heavily predicted win for DMK alliance and end of 10 years of rule of AIADMK in state. However, what will be the final result it will be decided on 2nd May 2021.

This time Tamil Nadu is witnessing a direct fight between two alliances, NDA which is lead by AIADMK in and UPA which is lead by DMK. In 2019 Lok Sabha election of 39 seats, DMK alliance won 38 seats and AIADMK-BJP could win only 1 seat. In terms of Assembly segments, DMK along with Indian National Congress were ahead in 187 segments while AIADMK along with BJP were ahead in just 13 segments.

The Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021 due to restriction from Election Commission of India will be published only after 29th April that is day of last phase of voting in West Bengal. However, here we share with you the Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll for last election. In last election AIADMK under late J Jayalalithaa had won 136 seats while DMK under late M Karunanidhi won 98 seats.

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Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Google Search Update, Voting Day Comparisons

2016: AIADMK: 56%, DMK: 44%

2019: AIADMK: 32%, DMK: 68%

2021: AIADMK: 35%, DMK: 65%

DMK alliance looking comfortable to win majority(according to Google Search)

Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Latest Crowdwisdom360 Prices

DMK to win 115+ Seats: Price: 79, High Probability

DMK to win 135+ Seats: Price: 50, Medium Probability

Most likely to win seat by a big margin

MK Stalin: Price: 71, Medium Probability

O Paneerselvam: Price: 59, Medium Probability

EK Palanisami: Price: 51, Medium Probability

Here is the summary of Tamil Nadu election Exit poll of last election:

India Today-Axis 89–101 124–140 0–3
News Nation 95–99 120-118 0–1
C Voter 139 78 0
NewsX 90 140 0
ABP Nielsen 95 132 1
NDTV Poll of Polls 103 120 0
Chanakya 90 140 0
Spick News 142 87 0
Thanthi TV 111 99 1
Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021: Analysis of 2016 Election result

In 2016, AIADMK managed to return to power despite of anti-incumbency and dissatisfaction. It managed to do this by winning 75% of the seats in the Kongu region (50 out of 66 seats) while giving a good fight in rest of semi-urban Tamil Nadu. 

Apart from the regional trend, AIADMK outperformed well amongst the following segments

– Scheduled Caste Seats

– Upper Castes

– Women

Amongst caste groups, the AIADMK performed well amongst its traditional backers – Gounders, Nadars and Thevars

Some experts have argued that the DMK struggled to match the AIADMK due to its inability to stitch the right coalition. This is true, the DMK on its own has crossed the 35% mark just once after 1977. The AIADMK on the other hand has crossed 35%, 5 times since 1977. So stitching the right alliance is far more critical for the DMK than AIADMK. 

Election Result Analysis

Tamil Nadu Election Exit Poll 2021
Image Courtesy: India.com

In 2016, AIADMK fought the election with 6 small parties which were given 7 seats to contest. DMK on the other hand had 7 partners with Congress party contesting in 41 seats while DMK itself contested in 176 seats.

Overall Seat Tallies: Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 analysis

Total Number of Seats: 234

AIADMK+: 134 Seats (41.8% Vote Share)

DMK+: 98 Seats (39.3% Share)

Seats with 10%+ Margin: 2016 Tamil Nadu Election Result analysis (Strong)

AIADMK: 42 Seats

DMK+: 32 Seats

Seats with <= 5%+ Margin: Tamil Nadu Election Result 2016 analysis (Weak)

AIADMK: 49 Seats

DMK+: 40 Seats

AIADMK Strong Districts: 70%+ Seats

Coimbatore: AIADMK: 14 out of 16 seats, Vote Share: 45.8%, Lead: 9.5%

Erode: AIADMK: 9 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 44.4%, Lead: 4.7%

Madurai: AIADMK: 8 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 46.5%, Lead: 8.2%

Nagapattinam: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 7%

Namakkal: AIADMK: 5 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 47.3%, Lead: 7.8%

Salem: AIADMK: 10 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 43.4%, Lead: 8.2%

Thiruvallur: AIADMK: 7 out of 10 seats, Vote Share: 41.9%, Lead: 3.5%

DMK+ Strong Districts: 70%+ Seats

Kancheepuram: DMK+: 9 out of 11 seats, Vote Share: 42.4%, Lead: 4.5%

Kanyakumari: DMK+: 6 out of 6 seats, Vote Share: 43.1%, Lead: 18.2%

Urban and Semi-Urban Seats Summary

AIADMK: 85 Seats

DMK: 57 Seats

Rural Seats Summary

AIADMK: 49 Seats

DMK: 41 Seats

SC Reserved Seats Summary

AIADMK: 30 Seats

DMK+: 14 Seats

Female Candidates Summary

AIADMK, Candidates: 30, Total Votes won: 2.3 million, 15% of AIADMK Votes, Win rate: 53%

DMK+, Candidates: 22, Total Votes won: 1.5 million, 8.9% of DMK+ Votes, Win rate: 24%

Read: Bengal Election 2021 Exit Poll: Will it be TMC again or will it be BJP?

Also Read: Assam Election Exit Poll 2021 : Will Congress, AIUDF Alliance Harm BJP in Assam?

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