Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: Who will win Punjab in 2022?
The Punjab assembly election 2022 will be one of the hot political battle of 2022 along with Uttar Pradesh. The state is under a direct confrontation with Central government with respect to Farm Bill and not only this BJP which has fought the elections in Punjab in an alliance with Shiromani Akali Dal will be fighting this election all on its own.
Currently of the four main political parties of Punjab it is BJP which is at the center of target rest of the parties. Congress, Akali and AAP are on the same page with respect to farm bill and BJP is trying to keep itself alive in the state. After SAD broke up its alliance with Saffron party in September 2020, Tarun Chugh, BJP party general secretary said that BJP will be contesting the Punjab Assembly election all on its own. He clearly stated that party will be fighting on all the 117 seats of the states.
On the other hand, Punjab Congress has already made an announcement of contesting the 2022 Punjab Assembly election under the leadership of current Punjab CM Amrinder Singh. The announcement was made by party’s state unit chief Sunil Jakhar, who has said that the captain will be the party’s choice for the CM’s post if the Congress gets the mandate again. It must be noted that the central leadership of Congress hasn’t made any such announcements.
BJP’s former ally Shiromani Akali Dal which came at number 3 in last assembly election is trying to find its way towards the throne of Punjab. The party parted away from BJP in the wake of farmer protest and now it is trying to gain the support of Punjab by terming itself to be pro-farmer party. However, it is for time to tell what will be the impact of this move of SAD but at present the party may not be in a state to return to power on its own.
Apart the these three parties, the other big player in Punjab is Aam Aadmi Party which is putting in all efforts to cash in from the ongoing farm protest despite secretly notifying one of three Farm Bills in Delhi Assembly. Recently, AAP leader Raghav Chadha claimed that their party will form the next government in Punjab. He shared the opinion poll of a private firm which projected AAP winning 51 to 57 seats, while the ruling Congress could win 43 to 49 seats. Akali Dal and BJP may grab only 12-18 and 0-5 seats.
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: Latest News from the State of Punjab
Protestors block highways, railways in Punjab and Haryana as per Bharat Bandh announced by Samyukt Kisan Morcha.
A 61-year-old farmer was found murdered near new bus stand at the Tikri-Bahadurgarh border. The deceased has been identified as Hakam Singh of Patti Fuddu village in Bathin.
With the rise of Coronavirus cases in Punjab, Government has imposed more restriction in the state.
Ahead of Punjab assembly election, Congress ropes in Prashant Kishore as Chief Minister Amrinder Singh’s principle advisor.
Aam Aadmi Party started their campaign with Kishan Sammelan which was headed by Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal.
10 police officers transferred in Punjab, Gurdaspur gets new SSP
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: Demographic Composition of Punjab
Based on 2019 population projection by NCP report, the population of Punjab is estimated to be 2,98,59,000. Of this population around 58% is estimated to be the ones belonging to Sikh religion while close to 39% population follow Hinduism.
Around 3% of the population comprises of Islam, Jainism, Christians, etc.
The 117 Assembly seats in Punjab is spread across 22 districts. District of Tarn Taran, Moga, Barnala, Mansa and Faridkot have over 75% Sikh population with Tarn Taran having the highest that is close to 94%.
Districts of Nawanshehar, Jalandhar and Hoshiarpur have over 60% Hindu population.
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: Seat Distribution in Punjab
Punjab generally divided into 3 parts: 1. Malwa 2. Majha and 3. Doaba
Malwa region has 69 Assembly seats while Majha has 25 Assembly seats and Doaba region comprises of 23 Assembly seats.
In terms of districtwise seat distribution, Ludhiana has the highest number of seats that is 14 Assembly seats followed by Amritsar which has 9 assembly seats. Jalandhar has 9 seats while Patiala sends 8 MLAs to Punjab assembly.
Barnala, Faridkot, Fatehgarh Sahib, Mansa, Nawanshahr, Pathankot, Rup Nagar and S.A.S. Nagar has lowest number of assembly seats. Each district sends 3 MLAs each to Punjab Assembly.
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: What happened in 2017 Assembly election?
The 2017 Punjab election was held on 4th February 2017 and the result was declared on 11 March 2017. This was the first assembly election for Arvind Kejriwal’s Aam Aadmi Party in Punjab. The opinion polls were mostly divided with some projecting AAP to form the government while some projected Congress to win the election.
The latest opinion poll before the 2017 Punjab election was released by HuffPost in association with C-Voter. The poll projected Aam Aadmi Party to sweep the election. The poll gave 63 seats to AAP and just 43 seats to INC.
The exit polls too were completely divided. Except for India Today Axis exit poll, the exit poll by C Voter and Today’s Chanakya gave mandate to AAP. Axis Polls gave INC 62-71 seats, AAP 42-51 seats and SAD-BJP 4-7 seats.
Except for few, almost all the opinion polls and exit polls were proven to be wrong when the final result was declared. The 2017 Punjab Assembly election was:
|Indian National Congress||117||77||38.5%|
|Aam Aadmi Party||112||20||23.7%|
|Shiromani Akali Dal||94||15||25.2%|
|Bhartiya Janata Party||23||3||5.4%|
|Lok Insaaf Party||5||2||1.2%|
Region wise Seat Won by Respective Parties
|Region||Total Seats||Indian National Congress||Aam Aadmi Party||Shiromani Akali Dal||Others|
District wise Seat Won by Respective Parties
|District||Seats||Indian National Congress||Aam Aadmi Party||Shiromani Akali Dal||Others|
Punjab Election Opinion Poll 2022: What does the Opinion Poll for 2022 Punjab Election Say?
No opinion poll has bee conducted by Crowdwisdom360 as of now for upcoming Punjab election. However, recently elections to 8 Municipal Corporations were held in Punjab.
The result of the election was completely one sided. Indian National Congress won all the 8 corporations that went in for polls. Of 400 total seats INC won 317 seats, AAP won 18 seats, SAD won 33 seats and Others could win 32 seats.
**We will be updating our Punjab election opinion poll after the Assembly elections of 2021**