Georgia Runoff Polls: Raphael Warnock wins Georgia Senate Runoff Election

Election Day Results (95%+)

  • Raphael Warnock: 50.8%
  • Herschel Walker: 49.2%

Warnock leads by 56k votes

Georgia Runoff Polls: Raphael Warnock is predicted to win the upcoming Georgia Runoff election.

Latest Warnock vs Walker Polls (Average): Raphael Warnock: 50.7%, Herschel Walker 47.0%

Warnock vs Walker Election 2022 Result: Warnock 49.4%, Walker 48.5%
Google Search Volumes: Raphael Warnock 49.6%, Herschel Walker 50.4%
Social Media Sentiments: Raphael Warnock: -7.4%, Herschel Walker: -22.2%

Georgia Runoff Prediction: Warnock to win by a margin of 3%

The Georgia Senate Runoff Race 2022 will be held today to elect a member of the US Senate from Georgia. The Candidates for the Georgia Senate race are Rev Raphael Warnock (D), the Incumbent, and Herschel Walker (R). Both candidates ended with less than the required 50% of the vote.

What is a Runoff Election?

  • Runoff elections are held when no candidate wins more than 50% of the votes
  • The top 2 vote-getters face each other in a runoff election 4 weeks after the general election.
  • Early voting begins a week prior to the runoff date
  • Anyone who is registered to vote in Georgia can vote in the Georgia Senate Runoff election. Voters can also participate in the runoff by mail. Only voters who have registered themselves as voters in Georgia before the General election will be allowed to vote.

Georgia Runoff Polls: Observation and Insights

  • Raphael Warnock leads Herschel Walker by 3.7% after multiple polls were released over the last few days
  • According to the latest Insider Advantage Poll
    • Warnock leads Walker by 9 points among women while Walker leads by 8.5 points among Men.
    • Herschel Walker leads 53-47 among Independents but is losing 9% of the Republican votes to Warnock
  • According to the latest Emerson Poll
    • In the Senate election in November, Walker led Warnock 63-32 among white voters. He now leads 67-30.
    • Among African American voters, Warnock led Walker 83-16 in the General election, he now leads 87-8
    • Among Latinos, Warnock led 50-41 in the General election, he now leads 60-39
    • Among those who voted for Chase Oliver (L), 35% will vote for Walker while 24% will vote for Warnock.
    • Nearly 1% of intending voters did not vote in the General election, 44% intend to vote for Warnock while 22% intend to vote for Walker.
    • Among Undecided voters, Warnock leader 51-49%
  • According to the latest 11Alive SurveyUSA Poll
    • Herschel Walker has a net favorable rating of (-16%) while Raphael Warnock has a net favorable rating of 0%
    • Warnock leads Walker 58-35 among those who are under 50
    • Those who are older than 50 support Walker 56-42
  • In the General Election, 38k votes separated Warnock and Walker with 81k voting for Chase Oliver in the General election. Warnock will have to win 30% of Oliver’s votes to win the runoff election
  • Where did Raphael Warnock win big?
    • Warnock won Fulton by 49% and DeKalb by 70%. Biden beat Trump by 46% and 68% in these counties
  • Where did Herschel Walker win big?
    • Herschel Walker won Cherokee and Forsyth by 38% and 33% respectively. Trump won by 39% and 33% respectively.
  • Overall, it appears Walker underperformed Trump in strong Dem counties
  • Who are the 3rd party voters likely to prefer?
    • According to the Marist Poll that favored Warnock, many of those who voted 3rd party candidates were Men-White and Non-College graduates. This group in general favors Walker
    • However, the county-level results show ‘Others’ coming from both Red and Blue Counties
    • It is likely that many of these voters are unlikely to vote for either Warnock or Walker
  • Can Warnock win again?
    • Yes, Warnock can win again. Warnock had issues with Democratic party turnout in the General election in November, he will focus to push this turnout by a few thousand votes.
    • A quarter of million voters had already voted by Monday, a record. Women are turning out in larger numbers.
  • Can Walker win this election?
    • Herschel Walker will need to bridge a 38k vote gap between him and Raphael Warnock
    • He can do that by appealing to Kemp voters to switch over to him. At the moment about 10% of such voters are likely to shift to Herschel Walker. Brian Kemp has endorsed Herschel Walker.
    • He can also persuade Libertarian voters to vote for him
    • One issue that may persuade voters to switch votes would be to maintain the balance of power in the Senate.
    • Herschel Walker has requested Trump not to campaign for him.
    • The Republicans have also changed their campaign strategy and are asking voters to vote Republican instead of Vote Walker.
    • Herschel Walker has improved significantly on Social Media over the last 7 days. However, he trails Warnock by a huge margin
  • Raphael Warnock has appointed 300 new campaign staffers to boost turnout for the vote. This should give Warnock a turnout advantage which could expand his lead further. Warnock has also released Ads in Asian languages to mobilize Asian voters in his favor
YouTube video

Data to Watch

  • Voter turnout on election day will matter the most. A heavy GOP mobilization on Election day will mean a certain win for Herschel Walker
  • Are Libertarian votings and for whom? If Libertarians vote Herschel Walker 70-30, he could win
  • So far, early voting, polls, google searches and social media data favor Warnock. However, Kari Lake too was ahead in Arizona until election day. However, Election day exit polls showed Katie Hobbs had mobilized better and had tied the poll. She eventually won by 0.6%.

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls 2022: Warnock Walker Polls

Average of Polls, December 6th

  • Raphael Warnock: 50.7%
  • Herschel Walker: 47.0%

Trafalgar, December 5th

  • Raphael Warnock: 51%
  • Herschel Walker: 47%

Data for Progress, December 5th

  • Raphael Warnock: 51%
  • Herschel Walker: 49%

Mitchell Research, December 4th

  • Raphael Warnock: 50%
  • Herschel Walker: 45%

Georgia Runoff Polls 2022: Google Search Trends

Nov 1-8th

  • Herschel Walker: 49%
  • Raphael Warnock: 51%

Past 7 Days

  • Herschel Walker: 50.4% (Steady)
  • Raphael Warnock: 49.6% (Steady)

Georgia Runoff Polls: Social Media Sentiment Tracker

Last 7 Days

  • Warnock: -7.4% (Falling)
  • Walker: -22.2% (Rising)

Georgia Senate Runoff Polls 2022: Major Republican Endorsements

Herschel Walker is the front-runner as a GOP candidate for the upcoming Georgia Senate election. He has been able to garner big endorsements. The latest endorsement for Herschel Walker’s candidature came from former Secretary of State Mike Pompeo.

Apart from Mike Pompeo, Walker is endorsed by:

  1. Former US President Donald Trump
  2. Former U.S. Ambassador to the United Nations Nikki Haley.

Herschel Walker Polls: Demographics

Voting age Population of Georgia- 7.6 Million

As per the census 2020, 50% of the voters are White, 31% are Black, Hispanic voters make up for 10% and Asians make up 4% of the voters. 52.6% of the voters are female.

The Youngest Cohorts of voters (Those aged less than 30) make up 22% of the voters while the oldest cohort (those older than 64) make up 20% of the voters.

Georgia Senate Race 2022 Polls

Track all the latest US Senate Races here updated everyday with news, polls and analysis

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