Why Bitcoin’s recovery wouldn’t be underway before August or September

Why Bitcoin’s recovery wouldn’t be underway before August or September

Bitcoin Bulls are dreaming of Bitcoin hitting $100k this year while the Bears on the other hand are talking about $12k. Such a wide range of forecasts is confusing. And then there are numerous methods (most of them lack any transparency). Our assessment so far has been the Best Elliott waves forecasters have actually done a great job forecasting Bitcoin’s fall over the last 9 months.

Bitcoin Recovery: Two Major Factors

Our assessment is that a definite recovery would only be underway in August or September. Here is why

  1. Bitcoin performance has a solid (negative) correlation with US Inflation (at least in the last few months). It is not a single factor but an important one
Why Bitcoin's recovery wouldn't be underway before August or September

2. Bitcoin performance has a solid (negative) correlation with Crude Oil prices as well

3. Now, while there are numerous other factors, Liquidity is essential for Bitcoin prices to move higher and both high inflation and high crude prices tend to squeeze liquidity. So the question is when are we likely to see a drop in Crude prices as well as Inflation?

With the US Federal Reserve raising rates rapidly, this is likely to be sooner than later. With another rate hike due in July, the consumer inflation rate should is likely to fall in July itself, a net effect of 3 rate hikes and an improving supply chain. July inflation numbers will be reported in the second week of August and the headline number is likely be lower than May and June. August Inflation number is certainly likely to be much lower than May or June.

Crude prices on the other hand have fallen in June but are likely to keep rising until August or even September as demand soars during the summer. OPEC is likely to be able to raise production in September or October even as demand falls a little.

A combination of falling inflation and crude prices is likely to help Bitcoin move higher steadily from August-September

Read detailed Bitcoin Price Prediction

Note: Crowdwisdom360 collates Predictions and data from all over the net and has no in-house view on the likely trends in the Index or Individual Stocks. Please consult a registered investment advisor to guide you on your financial decisions. 



Subhash, Founder of Crowdwisdom360 is an MBA and a Trained Financial Advisor with an extensive background in Forecasting in Financial Services and Politics. He has appeared many times on National TV and has written for a variety of magazines on Wealth Management and Election Strategy.