First Good News of 2020? Monsoon to be above normal
The weather department feels that the Monsoon will above normal this year
How Accurate is the Weather Department in predicting Monsoon?
2019 – Forecast: 96%, Actual: 110%
2018- Forecast: 97%, Actual: 91%
2017-Forecast: 98%, Actual: 95%
2016-Forecast: 106%, Actual: 97%
2015-Forecast: 88%, Actual: 86%
In the last 5 years, On an average, the Weather Department forecasts missed actual rainfall by 6.8%.
But 4 times out of 5, it tends to be over estimate the rainfall.
Looking at the last 5 years data and applying it to 2020, the worst case scenario is 93% which is way better than 2015 when things were quite bad.
So overall, one can say Monsoon is likely to be decent to very good this year. Not a source of major worry.