Election 2019 Prediction Market View

Election 2019 Prediction Market View

We launched our election 2019 prediction market four weeks ago. It is not a perfect prediction market as users donot trade real money but it does have a reward system that we hope will be much more reliable than the existing wisdom of the crowd methods. One thing is clear, prices determined by such markets are different from the probabilities determined by our existing crowdwisdom platform (Click here).

So what is the Election 2019 Prediction Market saying so far?

If one looks at Total Volumes alone

BJP 211 to 225 Seats prediction is the most traded prediction (Click here to Trade)

Congress 81 to 125 seats is the second most traded prediction (Click here to trade). Within that there is a bias towards 81 to 110 seats (Click here to trade)

The Third most traded prediction is BJP > 255 seats (Click here to trade)

Another way to validate is to look at price trends

So how much has BJP 211 to 225 seats moved in the last one week? It has come down from 9.1 to 9 (as of yesterday)

Congress 81 to 125 has also remained at 30 during this period. Further, Congress 81 to 110 seats has gone up from 12 to 17.5 during this period. Lastly, Congress 111 to 125 seats on the other hand has remained steady at 11.5

BJP > 255 seats has moved downwards from 54 to 51

Election 2019 Prediction Market View
Election 2019 Prediction Market View
In sum

Congress is looking steady at 81 to 110 seats. BJP is also looking steady at 211 to 225 seats. Further analysis reveals that demand is higher at the range below these levels suggesting that perhaps, the sum of two parties will win in the range 300-320 than be as high as 326 in the previous election.

This also explains

The low demand for Rahul Gandhi as Prime Minister

High Demand for DMK

It is likely therefore that DMK, AIADMK, YSRCP, TDP, TRS, BJD, TMC, JD(U), RJD, NCP, SHS, SP, BSP and numerous other regional parties will together win between 220 to 240 seats making them a decisive factor in this election. As we launch more regional party predictions, we shall get greater clarity. Watch our market.

Please read our previous analysis on how many seats BJP is likely to win in 2019

The Google Method for Election 2019 Prediction

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