How many Seats for Congress in Madhya Pradesh?
How many Seats for Congress in Madhya Pradesh? We will use 4 different methods – Opinion Polls, Google Trends, Crowd Sourcing and Prediction Markets to estimate the seat tallies for Congress and BJP
The Crowd was reasonably accurate in the predicting the seats for Congress in Madhya Pradesh assembly election last year.They came close to the Congress prediction (8% error) and very close to the BJP prediction 4%
What are they saying now?
Madhya Pradesh BJP: 70% think that the party will win 19 to 21 Seats
Madhya Pradesh Congress: 47% think that the party will win 9 to 11 Seats
A conservative take would be 19 seats for BJP and 10 seats for congress
Let us look at the opinion polls for Madhya Pradesh
C-Voter has been the most accurate in predicting the election in Madhya Pradesh (assembly)
The last C-Voter opinion poll in March had predicted 23 seats for BJP and 6 seats for Congress.
What is the news on Google Trends?
Using this data and assuming 90% vote share (Indiavotes) for the combination of BJP and Congress in 2019 (same as 2014), the vote shares in 2019 would be 51.7% for BJP and 38.3% for Congress. This will yield a result of 25 for the BJP and 4 for the Congress party
What is our Prediction Market Saying?
We have just launched a new prediction – Madhya Pradesh, BJP Greater than 19 Seats.
The wide range of predictions for Madhya Pradesh indicate a certain level of volatility. The final estimate is BJP -19 to 25 and Congress between 4 to 11 seats. A good mid-point appears to 22 for BJP and 7 for Congress which is close to the C-Voter Opinion Poll prediction