One Chart: Accuracy of Satta Bazaar in predicting election results
Source: 13 Elections, 2012-15, Newspaper reports
The Satta bazaar has been very accurate (92%) in predicting which party would win the most seats in an election. This level of accuracy is in line with exit and opinion poll forecasts (Read my article on accuracy of exit polls here). However, the bookies have been very inaccurate when it comes to predicting the exact number of seats. In fact, in 69% of the forecasts missed the final tally by more than 10%. The equivalent number for exit polls is 58%. Interestingly, the Satta bazaar underestimated the final tally of the winner in 54% of the cases.
Taking the above factors into account, the current Satta Bazaar forecast for Bihar (Click here) seems to suggest an easy NDA victory in Bihar. However, it is best to rely on a Satta bazaar forecast closer to election than one 2 weeks before the election.
October 31st update: Satta Bazaar reverse call and are now calling it for MGB. Another update expected over the next 2 days.
PS: This post is in response to a question by a reader. Thanks for writing to me with your questions. I will acknowledge your questions (with your permission) in case I write a post around it.