When Will Bitcoin ETF Be Approved? Latest Predictions

When Will Bitcoin ETF Be Approved? The US SEC is unlikely to approve Bitcoin ETF this year due the latest concerns of the SEC.

Bitcoin price has been surging because of the anticipation of the spot Bitcoin ETF approval by the US SEC. It is crucial to note that the US SEC approved a Bitcoin ETF in 2021. The ProShares Bitcoin ETF, trading under the ticker symbol BITO on the NASDAQ exchange, was the first Bitcoin ETF approved by the US SEC. However, BITO is a Futures ETF. The current market momentum is driven by the expectation of the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF by the US regulator.

Bitcoin ETF Updates

BlackRock, Bitwise File Updated Applications for Spot Bitcoin ETF

BlackRock and Bitwise both submitted revised S1 forms to the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). In the updated filing by BlackRock, there are new details outlining measures the trust administrator will undertake to monitor unusual price movements.

Moreover, it includes enhanced language regarding anti-money laundering compliance and incorporates an audited statement from PricewaterhouseCoopers.

The revised filing specifies that both the Sponsor and the Trust will solely engage with established third-party service providers who have undergone a rigorous due diligence process. This process ensures a comprehensive Know Your Customer (KYC) procedure, encompassing entities like Authorized Participants, Market Makers, Prime Brokers, and the Bitcoin Custodian.

BlackRock received $100K seed funds for Bitcoin ETF

In October 2023, BlackRock secured $100,000 in seed funding from an undisclosed investor for its spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF).

As per the most recent filing with the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), the investor committed to acquiring 4,000 shares at $25.00 per share, totaling the investment to $100,000 on October 27, 2023. Additionally, the investor was noted to be “acting as a statutory underwriter concerning the Seed Creation Baskets” according to the SEC filing.

The US Bitcoin ETF Applicants Now Increased to 13

Swiss asset manager Pando Asset has unexpectedly joined the spot Bitcoin exchange-traded fund (ETF) race in the United States. On November 29, Pando submitted Form S-1 to the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) to register securities for the Pando Asset Spot Bitcoin Trust. Pando now stands as the 13th applicant seeking approval for a spot in Bitcoin ETF in the U.S.

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What is a Spot and Futures ETF?

Spot ETFs

Spot ETFs track the spot price of an asset, which is the current price at which an asset can be bought or sold. Spot ETFs invest in the underlying asset directly. For example, a Bitcoin spot ETF would purchase Bitcoin and hold it in trust for its shareholders. Spot ETFs typically have low tracking error, as they are directly invested in the underlying asset. The main risk associated with spot ETFs is that the price of the underlying asset can decline.

Futures ETFs

Futures ETFs track the price of futures contracts, which are agreements to buy or sell an asset at a specified price on a future date. Futures ETFs invest in futures contracts on the underlying asset. For example, a Bitcoin futures ETF would purchase Bitcoin futures contracts. Futures ETFs can experience tracking errors if the price of the underlying asset does not move in line with the price of the futures contracts. Futures ETFs are subject to a number of risks, including market risk, counterparty risk, and roll cost risk.

Predictions: When Will Bitcoin ETF Be Approved?

The Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) faces a final brief timeframe, commencing on November 9 and spanning eight days. The market is poised for the potential approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF within this specific period. A total of 12 spot Bitcoin ETF applications are awaiting consideration during this eight-day window. Here are some predictions regarding the approval of Bitcoin ETFs.

Bloomberg’s James Seyffart and Eric Balchunas express confidence in the approval of a Bitcoin ETF within this timeframe. Nonetheless, should the SEC not approve the spot Bitcoin ETF before Thanksgiving, they suggest a 90% likelihood of approval by January 10.

JPMorgan anticipates the approval of spot Bitcoin ETFs within the coming months, likely before January 10. Coinbase is also optimistic about the approval of a U.S. Bitcoin exchange-traded fund by the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC). Paul Grewal, Coinbase’s Chief Legal Officer, expressed confidence in the likelihood of the SEC approving a Bitcoin ETF soon. He pointed to the regulator’s court failure to prevent Grayscale from transforming its GBTC bitcoin fund into an ETF as a notable development.

Steve McClurg, Valkyrie’s Chief Investment Officer, in early November, disclosed his anticipation of the SEC approving a spot Bitcoin ETF by November 2023. However, McClurg acknowledges the possibility that the SEC might delay finalizing ETF applications until January 2024, with potential launches approved in February 2024.

Prediction: Bitcoin Price After Bitcoin ETF Approval

The Bitcoin spot-ETF approval could lead to a surge in Bitcoin price. However, analysts have mixed opinion with respect to the Bitcoin price after ETF approval.

Galaxy Digital and Matrixport, two leading digital asset firms, have predicted that Bitcoin’s price could rise significantly following the approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF.

Galaxy Digital predicts that $14 billion could flow into a BlackRock spot Bitcoin ETF, which could raise the price of Bitcoin by 75%. Markus Thielen, head of research at Matrixport, estimates that Bitcoin could rise to between $42,000 and $56,000 if BlackRock’s spot Bitcoin ETF application is approved.

The approval of a spot Bitcoin ETF would be a major milestone for the cryptocurrency industry, as it would allow institutional investors to easily invest in Bitcoin without having to purchase it directly. This would likely lead to increased demand for Bitcoin and push its price higher.

Current Bitcoin Performance

Bitcoin is up over 100% this year and currently, Bitcoin is trading above $36,000. However, the Bitcoin price has been slightly volatile and has been either marginally above $37,000 or below $37,000.