COVID-19 Update: India with or without Lockdown

by Sumit Arora @eSumit

It is more than 3 weeks since a lockdown was imposed by the Indian government and again extended to 3rd May . We try to understand how India would have fared without a lockdown and has it been able to control the spread of Coronavirus?

Estimate: On 24th March when lockdown was imposed, India had a total 571 cases.

Without social distancing India would have had 36,794 cases by 13th April. Due to lockdown and social distancing, on 13th April India reported a total of 10,455 cases.

If India had ended social distancing on 14th April, we will end up with 1.21 lakhs cases by 3rd May

But with 50% Social distancing, we would end with 0.43 lakhs cases

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