Coronavirus Crisis: India’s Soaring Global Rank
What is India’s worldwide rank in Coronavirus Crisis?
#4th on Total Corona Cases (Will be 3rd in One week)
#3rd on New Cases Yesterday
#4th on Active Corona Cases (Will be 3rd by end of day today)
#8th on Total Deaths (Will reach 7th by 15th of July)
#3rd on Deaths Yesterday
#2nd on Critical Cases
#117 on Cases per Million Population (Will reach closer to 100 in 10 days)
#105 on Deaths per Million Population (Below 100 in 10 days)
#137 on Tests per Million Population
As can be seen, while India’s ranks are deteriorating, India is doing well on many metrics despite the huge population.Testing is the only problem at the moment. However, this will be a big concern if many deaths are being hidden. At the moment that does not appear to be happening.
The Good News is new cases have fallen for 3 days in a row. This is more than a month since new cases have fallen this way. This is happening because Delhi has begun to show a downward trend.
- Active Cases in Delhi have been trending downwards from 20th June
- Mumbai has stabilised at 1200-1500 Cases per day and doubling rate more than 30 days
- Delhi’s doubling rate is around 14 days and likely to fall. Which means that Delhi’s worst case scenario is around 2 lakh cases by end of July and not 5 lakh cases as claimed by Manish Sisodia
These are two most significant pieces of information as this implies that if India can overcome Coronavirus in the two big metros, it will be able to do so in other cities and towns as well. The two metros have ordinary healthcare systems, inefficient Municipalities, dense population and massive slum population. If this can be fixed, everything else can be fixed.
A combination of improvements in Mumbai and Delhi plus the likely improvements in South by July 15th suggests that India is highly likely to turn the curve in July. While this does not mean we should relax, it however means that we can start being optimistic about the future soon.